2024年9月PMI数据点评：9月制造业PMI指数大幅回升，新一轮稳增长政策将有效推升宏观经济景气度

Group 1: Manufacturing PMI Insights - In September 2024, China's manufacturing PMI rose to 49.8%, an increase of 0.7 percentage points from the previous month[1] - The production index surged by 1.4 percentage points, returning to the expansion zone[2] - New orders index increased by 1 percentage point to 49.9%, indicating improved demand[2] Group 2: Economic Influences - Seasonal factors contributed to the PMI increase, as September typically sees improvement following August's production slowdown[2] - The impact of July's growth-stabilizing policies, including a central bank interest rate cut and a 300 billion yuan special bond issuance, began to manifest in September[2] - Despite the PMI rebound, it remained in the contraction zone for the fifth consecutive month due to ongoing adjustments in the real estate sector[3] Group 3: Sector Performance - The non-manufacturing business activity index fell to 50.0%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points, with the service sector PMI at 49.9%, indicating contraction[3] - The construction business activity index rose slightly to 50.7%, but remained near the lowest levels since February 2020 due to declining real estate investment[3] - The new export orders index dropped to 47.5%, down 1.2 percentage points, reflecting weakening external demand[3] Group 4: Future Outlook - The manufacturing PMI is expected to rise to around 50.5% in October, indicating a potential return to expansion[4] - The implementation of new growth-stabilizing policies is anticipated to enhance economic momentum in the fourth quarter, supporting the annual growth target of approximately 5.0%[4]