4680大圆柱电池迎来大规模量产新节点

Investment Rating - The report indicates a strong bullish outlook for the industry, with expectations of price increases exceeding 15% in the short, medium, and long term [26]. Core Insights - The production capacity of Tesla's 4680 cylindrical battery has significantly improved, with a 51% increase in Q2 compared to Q1, and the first 100 million units successfully produced by September 15 [8][22]. - Major suppliers from Japan and South Korea, including LG Energy Solution, Samsung SDI, and Panasonic, have announced plans to commence mass production of the 4680 cells, with LG's initial capacity expected to be 8GWh by the end of 2024 [3][22]. - The adoption of dry electrode technology for the 4680 battery is a significant breakthrough, aiming to reduce production costs and environmental impact [2][22]. Summary by Sections 1. Tesla 4680 Cylindrical Battery Production - Tesla's 4680 battery production has ramped up, with a reported average output of 495,000 units per day over the last 101 days, compared to an average of 140,000 units per day from October 2023 to June 2024 [8][22]. - Suppliers like LG Energy Solution and Samsung SDI are in various stages of readiness to begin mass production, with timelines extending into 2025 [8][22]. 2. Significance of the 4680 Battery - The 4680 battery, with a diameter of 46mm and height of 80mm, offers significant advantages in cost reduction and energy density, achieving a fivefold increase in single-cell capacity and a 16% improvement in vehicle range compared to previous models [15][17]. 3. Current State of the Cylindrical Battery Market - The cylindrical battery market is currently dominated by square batteries in China, with cylindrical batteries accounting for only 2.2% of the total installed capacity [22][24]. - The competitive landscape is shifting, with major automakers like Tesla and BMW leading the charge in cylindrical battery adoption, influencing upstream suppliers [18][23]. 4. Future Outlook - The report highlights the potential for further cost reductions through technological advancements, particularly in dry electrode processes, which could reshape the competitive dynamics of the industry [24][22]. - The increasing focus on cylindrical batteries by leading manufacturers is expected to enhance market conditions and drive further investment in this segment [23][22].