日度报告——综合晨报 美国再次面临政府停摆危机，白酒股大涨带 动沪指走强 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2026-01-30 宏观策略（股指期货） 白酒股大涨带动沪指走强 受地产消息面影响，传统蓝筹股大涨，带动沪指走高，近期市 场投机情绪对冲了国家队的抛压，但近期地缘动荡，后续行情 仍然有较大的不确定性。仍建议均衡配置。 宏观策略（外汇期货(美元指数)） 特朗普：在与国会一起努力避免政府停摆 综 合 特朗普表态努力避免政府停摆，市场风险偏好走弱，美元指数 走低。特朗普最新的表态努力避免政府停摆，美国政府停摆问 题暂时解决。 晨 黑色金属（焦煤/焦炭） 报 吕梁市场炼焦煤线上竞拍价格上涨 短期来看，供应高位同时下游补库结束，整体市场情绪回落， 短期震荡运行。 有色金属（铜） 嘉能可 2025 年铜产量下滑 11% 宏观因素多变，美股科技股下挫叠加美国政府停摆担忧，引发 市场风险偏好反复变化，预计铜价震荡将阶段加剧。 能源化工（液化石油气） 沙特阿美公司 2026 年 2 月 CP 出台 二月 cp 丙烷官方价格小幅高开 5 美金，没有太超市场预期，环 比 1 月官方价格涨 20 美金，跟随 FE 价格 I ...

日度报告——综合晨报 特朗普警告伊朗，美联储按兵不动 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2026-01-29 宏观策略（外汇期货(美元指数)） 特朗普警告伊朗达成协议 美联储 1 月利率会议维持利率水平不变，对于经济边际乐观程度 上升，市场风险偏好上升，美元指数反弹。 宏观策略（黄金） 特朗普警告伊朗 综 金价强势上涨呈现明显加速迹象，市场波动加大，美联储利率 会议如期按兵不动，会议声明较此前表态更为乐观，主要是判 断就业市场趋于稳定，但通胀存在上行风险。 合 黑色金属（螺纹钢/热轧卷板） 晨 多家房企目前已不被监管部门要求每月上报"三条红线"指标 报 钢价延续震荡运行，近期表现偏弱，但趋势性驱动依然不明显。 建材需求季节性走弱对钢价形成压制。但由于基本面矛盾不算 突出，估值也并不算高，同样难以打开下方空间。 有色金属（锌） Fresnilloplc2025 锌精矿产量有增有减 谨慎追多，前期多单可继续持有，短期操作难度较高，建议做 好仓位管理。 能源化工（沥青） 国内重交沥青产能利用率下降 由于低价重质原油资源的稀缺，沥青反弹幅度偏强，但年前备 货节奏放缓，实际需求支撑疲弱。 | 黄玉萍 | 资深分析师 ...

特朗普最新表态对于弱势美元较为满意，市场风险偏好上升， 美元指数明显走弱。 宏观策略（股指期货） 12 月规上工企利润同比增 5.3% 综 A 股震荡缩量上涨，市场仍有一定韧性，但逻辑主线近期较为混 乱，投机情绪主导行情。未来随着监管层持续加码，我们认为 风格差异或将收敛。仍建议均衡配置各股指多头。 日度报告——综合晨报 美元走弱，金价再创新高 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2026-01-28 宏观策略（外汇期货(美元指数)） 美国消费者信心跌至 2014 年以来低点 合 宏观策略（黄金） 晨 CME 调整白银保证金 报 金价再度上涨创新高，主要受到美元指数大跌的驱动，一方面 是市场对美元信用的担忧持续强化，对黄金储备需求增加。一 方面是日本有联合干预外汇市场的预期，美元大跌利多黄金 有色金属（锡） Alphamin 2025 年锡矿产量 18,576 吨 印尼拟出台锡的最低成本价格机制 能源化工（原油） API 美国原油库存下降 油价上涨，因供应扰动因素支撑油价。 未获得东证期货书面授权，任何人不得对本报告进行任何形式的发布、复制。本报告的信息均来源于 公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作 ...

日度报告——综合晨报 特朗普提高对韩国商品关税，国内促进服务 消费政策即将推出 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2026-01-27 宏观策略（外汇期货(美元指数)） 特朗普称提高对韩国多种商品关税税率至 25% 特朗普最新表态不排除和伊朗通过外交达成协议的可能性，避 险情绪短期回落，市场风险偏好上升。 宏观策略（股指期货） 促进服务消费相关政策即将推出 A 股放量震荡走弱，商业航天等热门题材下跌，而贵金属板块大 涨。近期市场依然处在快速切换的过程中，总体风险可控。 综 农产品（豆油/菜油/棕榈油） 能源化工（苯乙烯） 苯乙烯华东港口库存 隐含波动率升至贸易摩擦以来最高值，单边观点从低多转向观 望 合 1 月 1-25 日马来西亚棕榈油产量环比减少 14.81% 晨 美国对加拿大提出关税威胁，菜油领涨油脂市场 报 有色金属（铜） 智利 Escondida 铜矿区道路封锁解除 宏观预期继续对铜价形成较强影响，而基本面短期因素对铜价 存在阶段拖累，预计价格高位震荡可能性更大，策略上短线保 持观望。 | 黄玉萍 | 资深分析师 | （农产品） | | --- | --- | --- | | 从业资格号： [Ta ...

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry | Asset Category | Rating | | --- | --- | | Gold | Oscillation | | US Dollar | Bearish | | US Stocks | Oscillation | | A-Shares | Oscillation | | Treasury Bonds | Oscillation | [28] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas markets face high geopolitical risks, with persistent concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve and the fiscal sustainability of developed economies. The risk aversion sentiment remains high, and the market is expected to maintain high volatility. The US and Japan's potential joint intervention in the foreign exchange market increases the downward pressure on the US dollar index, while the yen appreciates significantly [5]. - In the domestic market, although most of the economic data in December were below market expectations, the annual economic growth rate reached the 5% target. Policies such as investment and national subsidies at the beginning of the year are taking effect, and some domestic demand - related data have the potential for marginal improvement. The bond market remains under bearish pressure, while the stock market continues its slow - bull pattern but faces regulatory cooling in the short term [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Context Tracking - Geopolitical risks continue to ferment, including the sovereignty dispute over Greenland and concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve. The expansionary fiscal policy expectations in Japan challenge the country's fiscal discipline, leading to a rise in global sovereign bond yields [5]. - In the domestic market, the economic data in December were mostly disappointing, but the full - year economic growth target was achieved. Policies are being implemented, and there is potential for marginal improvement in domestic demand - related data [5]. 3.2 Global Overview of Major Asset Trends 3.2.1 Equity Market - Global stock markets fluctuated and adjusted this week, with mixed performance. In developed countries, the S&P 500 fell 0.35%, the German DAX fell 1.57%, and the Nikkei 225 fell 0.17%, while the South Korean KOSPI rose 3.08%. In emerging markets, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.84%, the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index fell 0.36%, and the Brazilian IBOVESPA rose 8.53% [7][8]. - The performance of MSCI indices was differentiated, with emerging markets > frontier markets > global markets > developed markets [8]. 3.2.2 Currency Market - The US dollar index weakened rapidly, depreciating 1.88% to 97.5. The RMB exchange - rate index appreciated slightly, and the RMB against the US dollar continued to appreciate 0.07%. Most emerging - market currencies and developed - market currencies appreciated, such as the Mexican peso (1.44%), the Brazilian real (1.49%), the euro (1.95%), and the yen (1.49%) [9][10]. 3.2.3 Bond Market - The yields of ten - year government bonds in major developed countries rose significantly, mainly due to concerns about Japan's radical fiscal policy. The yield of US Treasury bonds remained unchanged at 4.24%, the yield of UK Treasury bonds rose 7bp, and the yield of Japanese Treasury bonds rose 6bp. In emerging - market countries, the yield of Chinese Treasury bonds fell 1bp to 1.83%, the yield of Indian Treasury bonds fell 1bp, and the yield of Brazilian Treasury bonds fell 12bp [15][16]. 3.2.4 Commodity Market - The global commodity market oscillated and rose this week, with energy and precious - metal prices leading the increase. WTI crude oil rose 3.48%, natural gas rose 17%, COMEX gold rose 8.3%, and silver rose 14.8%. In the domestic commodity market, most commodities rose, with precious metals > non - ferrous metals > energy and chemicals > industrial products > agricultural products > black metals [22][26]. 3.3 Weekly Outlook for Major Assets 3.3.1 Precious Metals - Gold is expected to oscillate. Geopolitical tensions drive funds into precious metals, but after a rapid rise, gold price volatility is expected to increase. It is recommended to wait for a pullback before making long - positions [28][30]. - The speculative net long - positions in Comex gold futures rebounded slightly, the holdings of SPDR Gold ETF increased slightly to 1,086 tons, and the positions of Shanghai gold futures rose to around 360,000 lots. The silver price showed a frothy trend, and attention should be paid to the risk of a market reversal [40]. 3.3.2 Foreign Exchange - The US dollar is bearish. Geopolitical risks are rising, and the process of de - dollarization is accelerating, leading to a short - term weakness in the US dollar [28][41]. 3.3.3 US Stocks - US stocks are expected to oscillate. Geopolitical conflicts still have the risk of fermentation. With the approaching of the January FOMC meeting and the earnings season of technology giants, market sentiment is expected to remain cautious, and the volatility of the US stock market may further increase [28][44]. 3.3.4 A - Shares - A - shares are expected to oscillate. The domestic stock market continues to face a pattern of differentiation. The core contradiction is between the bottom - up bull - market expectations and the top - down regulatory cooling. The regulatory authorities may take more strict and precise measures to limit excessive speculation, and the market may continue to oscillate at a high level [28][58]. 3.3.5 Treasury Bonds - Treasury bonds are expected to oscillate. The bond - market rebound may not be over, but the long - term bearish logic remains unchanged. The net financing of government bonds will decrease next week, and the market news will be calm, but risks such as an unexpected increase in the manufacturing PMI still need to be vigilant [28][61]. 3.4 Global Macroeconomic Data Tracking 3.4.1 Overseas High - Frequency Economic Data - The US economy remains resilient, with the GDPNow model estimating a Q4 growth rate of 5.4% and the red - book retail sales growing 5.5% year - on - year. The employment market also remains stable, with the number of continued unemployment claims falling to 1.849 million and the number of initial claims remaining at 200,000 [77]. - The liquidity in the US banking - system is expected to improve, the credit spread of high - yield corporate bonds is oscillating and falling, and the market's expectation of interest - rate cuts has changed little. The probability of a pause in interest - rate cuts in January has risen to 95.6%, and it is expected that there will be only 1 - 2 interest - rate cuts in 2026, more likely in the second half of the year [84]. - In December, the US CPI increased 2.7% year - on - year as expected, and the core CPI increased 2.6% year - on - year, the lowest level since March 2021 and lower than expected. The PPI rebounded to 3% in November, mainly driven by energy prices, and the core PCE increased 2.8% year - on - year in November, in line with market expectations [87]. 3.4.2 Domestic High - Frequency Economic Data - The real - estate market remains weak, with only a seasonal rebound in second - hand housing transactions. The market is still waiting and seeing, and the follow - up of new policies in Shanghai and Shenzhen is slow [93]. - As of January 23, the R007, DR007, SHIBOR overnight, and SHIBOR 1 - week were 1.54%, 1.49%, 1.40%, and 1.49% respectively, with slight changes from the previous weekend. The average daily trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase this week was 8.57 trillion yuan, slightly less than last week, and the overnight trading volume accounted for 90.49%, slightly higher than the previous week [96]. - In December, the economic data showed a pattern of overall weakness, with supply stronger than demand and domestic demand weaker than external demand. The growth rate of industrial added value, exports, and service production increased, while the growth rate of social retail sales, fixed - asset investment, and real - estate investment decreased [97]. - In December, the financial data showed that the private sector, especially the household sector, had a low willingness to borrow actively. However, there were also some positive changes, such as an increase in short - term and medium - long - term loans of the enterprise sector, an increase in the issuance scale of enterprise bonds, and a slight increase in entrusted loans [102]. - In December, the PPI increased - 1.9% year - on - year, and the CPI increased 0.80% year - on - year, both showing a recovery trend. In the future, inflation is expected to continue to rise due to policy support and rising commodity prices [109]. - In December, the year - on - year growth rates of exports and imports exceeded expectations, with exports growing 6.6% and imports growing 5.7%. In the future, exports are expected to maintain their resilience, and imports are expected to recover moderately [115].

周度报告——光伏玻璃 政策刺激作用初显，光伏玻璃价格持稳运行 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2026 年 1 月 26 日 ★光伏玻璃基本面周度表现（截至 2026/1/23 当周）： 截至 1 月 23 日，国内光伏玻璃 2.0mm 镀膜（面板）主流价格 为 10.5 元/平方米，环比上周持平；3.2mm 镀膜主流价格为 16.5 元/平方米，亦环比上周持平。 上周国内光伏玻璃供应量保持稳定，无产线冷修或点火，厂家堵 窑量亦无新增。目前国内光伏玻璃在产产能 87210 吨/天，产能 利用率 66.31%。预计本周行业供给量继续保持稳定。 能 源 化 受益于光伏出口退税取消政策的利多刺激，光伏玻璃厂家出货情 况有所转好，但整体提振幅度偏小，一方面是因为上周大雪天气 影响了物流，另一方面是下游抢出口节奏力度明显偏弱，对光伏 玻璃消费端的提振效果不及预期。 工 上周光伏玻璃厂家继续去库，由于政策利好提振，光伏玻璃厂家 出货有所转好，库存继续下降。预计本周市场供给维持稳定，行 业存在继续降库预期。 上周光伏玻璃行业毛利率约为-19.04%，目前光伏玻璃市场再度 进入低价竞争阶段，行业亏损较为严重。 ★ 供需分 ...

日度报告——综合晨报 贵金属延续强势，化工板块集体大涨 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2026-01-26 宏观策略（外汇期货(美元指数)） 欧洲据估算需万亿美元重整国防工业 ICE 再次射杀美国公民，导致美国国内针对非法移民的冲突进一 步加剧，美元指数走弱。 宏观策略（股指期货） 证监会发布公募业绩比较基准指引 综 资金加速涌入国家队筹码较少的小微盘，造成市场的 K 型分化。 展望后市，我们认为监管部门将会采取更严格、精准的方式来 限制过度投机炒作，市场或仍将高位震荡。 合 宏观策略（黄金） 晨 美国 1 月标普全球制造业 PMI 初值 51.9 报 周五贵金属延续强势上涨趋势再创历史新高，市场继续交易美 欧局势紧张带来的避险需求和去美元化需求，日美联合释放干 预外汇市场的信号后，日元大涨美元大跌助涨贵金属。 农产品（豆油/菜油/棕榈油） 欧盟将逐步淘汰大豆生物燃料 扫描二维码，微信关注"东证繁微"小程序 未获得东证期货书面授权，任何人不得对本报告进行任何形式的发布、复制。本报告的信息均来源于 公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证，也不保证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。我们已力 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no specific industry investment rating provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Based on technical indicator signal analysis of futures, different trends are shown in various sectors. In the precious metals sector, silver, platinum, and palladium show bearish signals, while gold remains volatile. In the non - ferrous sector, zinc, tin, lithium carbonate, and aluminum alloy are bullish, and Shanghai lead is bearish, with the rest being volatile. In the black and shipping sector, hot - rolled coils, wire rods, coking coal and coke, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon are bullish, and European line container shipping is volatile. In the energy and chemical sector, LPG is bullish, and many varieties in the chemical sector such as rubber series, ethylene glycol, methanol, and PTA are bullish. In the agricultural products sector, peanuts and logs are bullish, and sugar, eggs and other varieties are bearish. In the stock index futures, CSI 1000 is bullish, CSI 500 is volatile, and SSE 50 and CSI 300 are bearish. In the treasury bond futures, 2 - year treasury bonds are bullish, and 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bonds are mainly volatile [1][2]. Summary by Directory 1. Non - ferrous and Precious Metals Sector - Precious metals: Silver, platinum, and palladium show bearish signals, and gold shows a volatile signal. Non - ferrous metals: Zinc, tin, lithium carbonate, and aluminum alloy show bullish signals, Shanghai lead shows a bearish signal, and the rest of the varieties are mainly volatile [8][9]. - For Shanghai copper, it maintained high - level volatility this week. The weekly line is bullish, and the daily line shows a balance between bulls and bears. If it continues to rise at the beginning of next week and the MACD forms a golden cross, it is expected to break through; otherwise, continue to wait and see [11]. 2. Black and Shipping Sector - Hot - rolled coils, wire rods, coking coal and coke, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon show bullish signals, and the rest of the varieties are mainly volatile. European line container shipping shows a volatile signal [17][18]. - For rebar, it has been in a downward channel with a gradually rising center of gravity since October 2021. This week, it showed a "V" shape and is currently in low - level volatility. The MACD is expected to form a golden cross above the zero - axis, and the price may rebound within the range, but it does not form a strong trend [21]. 3. Energy and Chemical Sector - In the energy sector, LPG shows a bullish signal, and the rest of the varieties are volatile. In the chemical sector, rubber series, ethylene glycol, offset printing paper, methanol, PTA, p - xylene, PVC, propylene, pulp, staple fiber, and bottle chips show bullish signals, and the rest of the varieties are volatile [26][27]. - For PTA, the weekly line has broken through the adjustment center, with a long - position arrangement of moving averages and a golden cross in MACD, indicating short - term upward momentum. Pay attention to the pressure in the range of 5300 - 5500 yuan/ton [31]. 4. Agricultural Products Sector - Peanuts and logs show bullish signals, sugar, eggs, live pigs, and soybean meal show bearish signals, and the rest of the varieties are mainly volatile [38][39]. - For sugar, the weekly line is in a downward channel. Recently, it has been running along the lower edge of the channel, and the daily - line MACD shows a death cross. Be vigilant about the risk of decline [44]. 5. Stock Index Futures Sector - CSI 1000 futures show bullish signals, CSI 500 futures show volatile signals, and SSE 50 and CSI 300 futures show bearish signals [50][51]. - The weekly line of IC CSI 500 futures rose 5.45% this week, with a long - position arrangement of moving averages and the Bollinger Bands expanding. The daily line shows that the price continues to rise above the MA5, indicating that the upward momentum still exists [53][54]. 6. Treasury Bond Futures Sector - 2 - year treasury bond futures are mainly bullish, and 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures are mainly volatile [57][61]. - The T 10 - year treasury bond futures have a slightly elevated center of gravity this week. The daily line shows that the price has stood above the MA60 and MA120, and the MACD maintains a golden cross. The price is running near the upper track of the Bollinger Bands. It is expected to be volatile or slowly repair upwards. Pay attention to the support at 107.06 - 107.39 and the resistance at 108.5 - 108.7 [64].

周度报告——商品期权 商品期权周报：2026 年第 4 周 报告日期： 2026 年 1 月 25 日 ★ 商品期权市场活跃度 本周（2026.01.19-2026.01.23）商品期权市场成交活跃度小幅 萎缩，日均成交量为 815 万手，日均持仓量为 862 万手，环 比变化分别为-8.60%和-0.35%。分品种来看，本周日均成交 活跃的品种主要包括白银（81 万手）、苯乙烯（66 万手）、 PTA（44 万手）。此外，本周共有 5 个品种成交增长超过 100%， 成交量增长较为显著的品种为对二甲苯（+165%）、原木 （+163%）、合成橡胶（+154%）。与此同时，成交量下降 较为明显的品种则有原油（-66%）、豆二（-51%）、短纤（-51%）。 从持仓量数据来看，本周日均持仓量较高的品种为豆粕（60 万手）、棉花（56 万手）和玻璃（50 万手）。日均持仓量环 比增长较为迅速的品种为锡（+65%）、工业硅（+46%）、 烧碱（+43%）。建议投资者可重点关注交易活跃品种可能存 在的市场机会。 ★ 商品期权主要数据点评 标的涨跌情况：商品期权标的以上涨为主。周度涨幅较高的 品种包括碳酸锂（+24.1 ...

金工策略周报 东证衍生品研究院金工首席分析师：李晓辉（商品CTA、商品指数） 从业资格号： F03120233 投资咨询号： Z0019676 东证衍生品研究院金工高级分析师：徐凡（国债期货、基本面量化） 从业资格号： F03107676 投资咨询号： Z0022032 （一）国债期货量化策略 东证衍生品研究院金工高级分析师：徐凡（国债期货、基本面量化） 从业资格号： F03107676 交易咨询号： Z0022032 量化模型基于历史数据构建，市场环境变化或导致模型信号失效。 Ø 上周各期债收涨，30年期主力合约涨1.24%，十年期主力合约涨0.14%，五年期主力 合约涨0.09%，两年期主力合约涨0.02% Ø 上周各品种基差走阔，十债CTD券为250018，23号基差收于0.05元左右，略低于基 差的季节性水平；三十年期CTD券为210005，16号基差收于0.35元，低于基差的季 节性水平。 Ø 国债期货持续走强，情绪小幅回暖推动各期债品种走强。随着开年来政策的不断加码， 经济运行情况整体平稳，短期上涨的动力较强，因此日间技术与基差等核心因子依旧 以多头主导。 ★国债期货行情简评： ★国债期货日频择时 ...