国内观察：2024年9月PMI：PMI弱于季节性，但政策提振市场和未来经济

Group 1: PMI Data Overview - In September 2024, the manufacturing PMI was reported at 49.8%, up from 49.1% in August, while the non-manufacturing PMI was at 50.0%, down from 50.3%[2] - The manufacturing PMI remains below the seasonal average of 50.2% over the past five years, indicating ongoing economic challenges[2] - The production index for September was 51.2%, reflecting a 1.4 percentage point increase month-on-month, indicating a return to expansion territory[2] Group 2: Demand and Supply Dynamics - The new orders index increased to 49.9%, up 1.0 percentage point from August, but still below the expansion threshold[2] - New export orders fell by 1.2 percentage points to 47.5%, the lowest level since February, indicating potential challenges in global demand[2] - The high-tech manufacturing PMI rose to 53.0%, a 1.3 percentage point increase, while the equipment manufacturing PMI was at 52.0%, up 0.8 percentage points, showing positive momentum in new sectors[2] Group 3: Price and Cost Trends - The price index showed a slight increase within the contraction range, indicating reduced downward pressure on prices, although PPI is expected to remain under pressure[3] - The service sector business activity index fell to 49.9%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points, primarily due to seasonal factors and adverse weather conditions[3] Group 4: Future Outlook and Risks - The construction sector's business activity index rose to 50.7%, with a business activity expectation index at 53.1%, indicating positive sentiment in the construction industry[3] - Risks include potential declines in overseas demand and the possibility that growth-stimulating policies may not be implemented as expected[3]