牛市复盘2：杠杆牛与核心资产牛

Core Insights - The report reviews two recent bull markets: the Leverage Bull Market and the Core Asset Bull Market, highlighting their characteristics and market conditions leading to their emergence [1][4]. Group 1: Leverage Bull Market (July 22, 2014 - June 12, 2015) - The market experienced a significant correction prior to the bull run, with the Shanghai Composite Index undergoing a five-year consolidation period, declining by 40.06% from August 4, 2009, to July 22, 2014 [6]. - Economic slowdown was evident, with quarterly GDP growth dropping from 7.9% in Q1 2013 to 6.9% by the end of 2015, alongside deflationary pressures as the GDP deflator approached zero [7][9]. - The People's Bank of China implemented a loose monetary policy, conducting three reserve requirement ratio cuts and six interest rate reductions, with the five-year loan rate decreasing from 6.4% to 4.75% by the end of 2015 [10]. - The bull market saw substantial gains, with the ChiNext Index rising by 198.38%, the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 151.47%, and the CSI 300 Index up by 146.28% during this period [11]. Group 2: Core Asset Bull Market (January 4, 2019 - February 18, 2021) - Prior to the bull market, the Shanghai Composite Index experienced a three-and-a-half-year consolidation, declining by 50.9% from June 12, 2015, to January 4, 2019 [12]. - The economy transitioned to a high-quality development phase, with quarterly GDP growth maintaining between 6% and 7% from 2015 to 2018, but slowing to 3.1% and 4.8% in Q2 and Q3 of 2020 due to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic [13]. - A loose monetary policy was adopted, with the central bank conducting four reserve requirement ratio cuts from 13.5% to 11.5% and three interest rate cuts from 3.3% to 2.95% between 2019 and 2021 [14]. - The bull market resulted in significant price increases, with the ChiNext Index rising by 173.38%, the CSI 300 Index increasing by 94.56%, and the Shanghai Composite Index up by 49.14% during this timeframe [15].