POP MART(09992) 申万宏源·2024-09-30 08:40Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Pop Mart (09992) with a target price of HKD 63.35, implying a 22.30% upside from the current price [7] Core Views - Pop Mart's IP platformization and globalization strategies are yielding results, with overseas expansion and category diversification driving growth [5] - The company's overseas strategy is replicable, with higher pricing and profitability compared to the domestic market [5] - Pop Mart's overseas market potential is estimated to exceed RMB 10 billion, with a long-term target of over 500 stores globally [5][46] - The company's IP creation and operational capabilities have been validated, with a focus on extending IP lifecycles and expanding commercialization through category diversification [6] Overseas Expansion - Pop Mart's overseas revenue grew 2.6x in H1 2024, contributing 29.7% of total revenue, with Southeast Asia being a key growth driver [16] - The company's overseas gross margin exceeds domestic levels, with offline and online channels achieving 72% and 73% gross margins, respectively [17] - Pop Mart's overseas pricing strategy includes premium pricing in markets like the US and UK, with average premium rates ranging from 12% to 61% [20] - The company's overseas expansion follows a phased approach, transitioning from B2B to B2C and from light to heavy asset investments [31] Domestic Growth Sustainability - Pop Mart's domestic growth is supported by IP platformization, with multiple revenue-generating IPs reducing reliance on any single IP [55] - The company's offline retail store network in China is expanding, with 374 stores as of H1 2024, and there is still room for growth compared to Lego's 500 stores in China [58] - Category expansion, including high-end and derivative products, is driving ARPPU growth and contributing significantly to domestic revenue [64][65] Financial Projections - Revenue for 2024-2026 is projected to be RMB 10.278 billion, RMB 13.333 billion, and RMB 16.296 billion, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 63%, 30%, and 22% [7] - Non-IFRS adjusted net profit for 2024-2026 is expected to be RMB 2.193 billion, RMB 2.849 billion, and RMB 3.568 billion, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 85%, 30%, and 25% [7]