电动两轮车行业：监管趋严带来存量替换需求，龙头优势稳固

Investment Rating - The report does not provide specific ratings for the industry or companies mentioned [3][4]. Core Insights - The electric two-wheeler industry has undergone two significant development phases, driven largely by policy changes. The first phase occurred before 2013, benefiting from rapid economic growth and the introduction of regulations defining electric bicycles as non-motor vehicles. The second phase began after 2020 with the introduction of the "New National Standard," which has led to a substantial increase in production capacity, reaching nearly 60 million units annually [1][9]. - The demand side remains robust, with ongoing growth potential in domestic markets and promising expansion opportunities in Southeast Asia. The tightening of regulations is expected to stimulate replacement demand, particularly through trade-in subsidy policies. The market for shared and delivery vehicles is also projected to grow steadily, with estimated annual demand for delivery vehicles reaching 7 million units [2][19][20]. - On the supply side, leading companies have established significant advantages, with a high market concentration. The top two companies, Yadea and Aima, accounted for over 40% of the market share in 2022, and their sales have surpassed 10 million units, with revenues exceeding 20 billion [2][30]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The electric two-wheeler industry has experienced four development stages, with the latest phase starting in 2019 due to the "New National Standard," which has driven production growth from 32.78 million units in 2018 to 59.04 million units in 2022, reflecting a CAGR of nearly 16% [9][11]. 2. Demand Side - The electric two-wheeler market is characterized by essential demand, particularly in urban areas where convenience and cost-effectiveness are critical. The tightening of regulations is expected to enhance replacement demand through trade-in policies, with the first batch of compliant manufacturers benefiting from subsidies [14][16]. - The B-end demand, primarily from shared and delivery vehicles, is expected to maintain steady growth, with an estimated annual demand of 4 million shared vehicles and 7 million delivery vehicles [19][20]. 3. Supply Side - The industry has a high concentration, with the top three companies holding a combined market share of 59.6%. Yadea and Aima have significantly increased their market shares since 2020, with Yadea's sales growing by 18% in 2023 [30][33]. - Leading companies have established scale advantages, with Yadea and Aima both achieving sales exceeding 10 million units and revenues over 20 billion. Their competitive pricing strategies have allowed them to maintain market leadership [30][34]. 4. Key Listed Companies - Yadea Holdings (1585.HK) has become the largest electric two-wheeler manufacturer globally, with over 40,000 stores and a strong channel operation capability. The company has also expanded into Southeast Asia, establishing a competitive edge in markets like Vietnam [3][4]. - Aima Technology (603529.SH) is the second-largest player, maintaining high capital expenditure and aiming for a 20% growth in revenue or net profit by 2024, indicating strong management confidence [3][4].