宏观季报：双降落地 增量政策助力全年发展目标

Economic Overview - In Q3 2024, the ten-year government bond yield fell to around 2.0%, marking a new upward trend in medium to long-term government bond futures prices[10] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced a series of unexpected monetary easing policies, including a 30 basis point cut in the MLF rate on September 25, 2024[10] - The unemployment rate for urban youth aged 16-24 reached 18.8% in August 2024, an increase of 1.7 percentage points from the previous month, the highest this year[11] Industrial Performance - The industrial added value for large enterprises grew by 4.5% year-on-year in August 2024, with a month-on-month increase of 0.32%[11] - In the first eight months of 2024, real estate development investment totaled 69,284 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 10.2%[11] - The manufacturing sector's PMI data showed a decline, indicating weak recovery in the manufacturing industry[10] Fiscal and Monetary Policy - The general public budget revenue in August 2024 was 1.2 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 2.8%[10] - The issuance of local government bonds has accelerated, with new special bonds issued in August reaching 58% of the annual target[10] - The Federal Reserve cut the federal funds target rate by 50 basis points in September 2024, with expectations for further cuts in the coming months[10] Consumer Behavior - Retail sales of consumer goods in August 2024 totaled 38,726 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.1%[11] - The sales of new commercial housing decreased by 18.0% year-on-year in the first eight months of 2024, with residential sales down by 20.4%[11]