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原油季报:基本面支撑,油价有望反弹
Hua Lian Qi Huo· 2025-09-29 02:50
期货交易咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1285号 华联期货原油季报 基本面支撑,油价有望反弹 20250928 黄秀仕 交易咨询号:Z0018307 从业资格号:F03106904 0769-22110802 审核:孙伟涛,从业资格号:F0276620,交易咨询号:Z0014688 季度观点及策略 季度观点 库存:由于需求上升,美国原油和成品油库存下降。原油库存减少60.7万桶,至4.148亿桶,而市场预期为增加23.5万桶。俄克拉荷马州库欣交付中心的原油库存增 加17.7万桶。美国原油净进口量增加160万桶/日,而原油出口量下降79.3万桶1日,至448万桶/日。汽油库存减少110万桶,至2.166亿桶,而预期为增加15万桶。包 括柴油和取暖油在内的馏分油库存减少170万桶,至1.23亿桶,预期为减少49.4万桶。市场正密切关注馏分油需求,因为它是工业需求、商业运输和取暖需求的晴雨 表。 供应:上周美国原油产量维持在1340万桶/日水平。OPEC+产油国联盟决定10月再次提高石油产量目标,再次增产将意味着OPEC+开始解除第二层减产计划,该计划的 减产幅度约为165万桶/日,占全球需求量的1.6%,解除 ...
国内远期进口大豆供应缺口收窄,豆菜粕中长期或震荡偏弱
Hua Lian Qi Huo· 2025-09-29 01:40
期货交易咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1285号 华联期货饲料季报 国内远期进口大豆供应缺口收窄 豆菜粕中长期或震荡偏弱 20250928 邓丹 交易咨询号:Z0011401 从业资格号:F0300922 0769-22111252 审核:孙伟涛 从业资格号:F0276620 交易咨询号:Z0014688 基本面观点 ◆ 在豆粕现货供应充足且远期供应缺口收窄的情况下,预计豆菜粕中长期或震荡偏弱为主。 ◆ 美豆方面,美豆进入集中收割期,收割进度正常。 ◆ 巴西大豆已开始播种,未来两周主产区大部分地区都有良好降雨,天气适合播种工作的进行。阿根廷政府本 周取消了大豆和豆粕等农产品的出口税,但之后又宣布,政府设定的70亿美元配额已完成登记,因此恢复实 施暂停的谷物等农产品出口预扣税。 ◆ 国内方面,由于阿根廷短期地取消出口税,中国趁低价已购买了接近200万吨11-12月船期大豆,而且不排除 提前注册免税的额度后期继续购买阿根廷大豆,导致国内四季度及明年一季度进口大豆供应缺口收窄,长期 利空豆粕。另外,中美贸易关系仍是市场关注的焦点,后续需密切关注中美贸易谈判情况。 策略观点与展望 ◆ 单边:建议豆粕2601压力位 ...
橡胶周报:有望走好-20250915
Hua Lian Qi Huo· 2025-09-15 00:44
Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Supply - side disturbances are expected to decrease, with decent profits and high tapping enthusiasm. Despite the large - cycle inflection point, 2025 supply is likely to increase. - On the demand side, large - scale infrastructure projects are set to start, which will have a long - term positive impact on heavy - truck demand. Heavy - truck sales are improving, and passenger - car sales remain at a high level. - Inflation and the inflection point of the production - capacity cycle have raised the price floor. Coupled with the fact that August to November is usually a season of relatively strong prices, it is predicted that rubber prices will fluctuate upwards. The operating range of ru is expected to be between 14,000 - 18,000 yuan/ton [4]. Summary by Directory Macroeconomy - The real - estate market continues to decline and awaits stabilization. Since July, domestic policies have been clearly aimed at reducing excessive competition, and a series of policy measures have been introduced, bringing benefits to commodities in terms of both supply and demand (large - scale infrastructure). There is a strong expectation of a Fed rate cut overseas [4]. Supply - The natural - rubber growing areas generally have normal weather conditions. Cup - lump prices have slightly stabilized, but the price difference between latex and cup - lump is weak, indicating that supply is not a major issue. Currently, it is the peak production season globally, with normal weather and occasional short - term rainfall disruptions. Tapping enthusiasm is high, and there are initial concerns about the 2025 production volume. The port inventory of butadiene, the raw material for synthetic rubber, has rapidly rebounded to a high level in recent years. From January to August this year, the import of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) increased by 19% year - on - year, and the growth rate in August slowed down to 7.8% [4]. Inventory - The dry - rubber inventory in Qingdao has slightly decreased recently, but it is expected that there will still be a large amount of incoming goods, making it difficult to further reduce the inventory. The inventory of synthetic - rubber traders has increased, while the factory inventory is not high. The ru warehouse receipts on the exchange are at a relatively low level and are decreasing marginally, and the nr warehouse receipts were once at an extremely low level. The inventory of full - steel tires for downstream users is lower than in previous years, and considering the market expansion, the inventory of semi - steel tires is also not high [4]. Demand - The upcoming large - scale infrastructure projects will have a long - term positive impact on the demand for heavy trucks. Stimulated by the policy of replacing old vehicles with new ones, heavy - truck sales have improved. In August 2025, the sales volume decreased by 1% month - on - month compared to July but increased by about 35% year - on - year compared to 62,500 units in the same period last year. This is the fifth consecutive monthly increase in the heavy - truck market since April this year. The sales volume of construction machinery rebounded significantly and then declined. Passenger - car sales remain at a historical high but have slightly softened [4]. Strategy - Given the reduced expected supply - side disturbances, decent profits, high tapping enthusiasm, and a low base, it is expected that supply in 2025 is likely to increase. On the demand side, large - scale infrastructure projects are driving up demand, heavy - truck sales are improving, and passenger - car sales remain at a high level. Inflation and the inflection point of the production - capacity cycle have raised the price floor. Coupled with the seasonally strong price period from August to November, it is predicted that rubber prices will fluctuate upwards, with the ru operating range expected to be between 14,000 - 18,000 yuan/ton. Key indicators to observe are the visible inventory and heavy - truck sales [4].
宏观周报:物价低位运行,央行再度增持黄金-20250810
Hua Lian Qi Huo· 2025-08-10 13:27
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - In July 2025, the national consumer price index (CPI) was flat year - on - year. Food prices decreased by 1.6%, non - food prices increased by 0.3%, consumer goods prices decreased by 0.4%, and service prices increased by 0.5%. From January to July, the average CPI decreased by 0.1% compared with the same period last year [5][51]. - In July 2025, the producer price index for industrial products (PPI) decreased by 3.6% year - on - year, and the purchasing price index for industrial producers decreased by 4.5%. From January to July, the average PPI decreased by 2.9% compared with the same period last year, and the purchasing price index for industrial producers decreased by 3.2% [5][58]. - As of the end of July 2025, China's gold reserves were 73.96 million ounces, an increase of 60,000 ounces from the end of June 2025, increasing for 9 consecutive months. It is expected that the central bank will continue to increase its gold holdings [6]. - As of the end of July 2025, China's foreign exchange reserves were $3.2922 trillion, a decrease of $25.2 billion or 0.76% from the end of June, remaining above $3.2 trillion for 20 consecutive months [6]. - In the first 7 months of this year, China's goods trade showed an upward trend. The total value of imports and exports was 25.7 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.5%, and the growth rate was 0.6 percentage points faster than that in the first half of the year [6]. - In July 2025, the manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. The manufacturing industry's prosperity level declined seasonally and generally remained in a downward trend [6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs National Economic Accounting - GDP quarterly year - on - year growth rates from Q1 2023 to Q2 2025 are presented. Different industries such as agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, industry, construction, and services have their respective growth rate trends [8]. - The contribution rates of different industries to GDP growth from Q1 2023 to Q2 2025 are shown, including agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, industry, construction, and various service - related industries [13]. Industry Industrial Growth Rate - The year - on - year growth rates of added value of major industries from May to June in the past two years are provided, including coal mining and washing, oil and gas extraction, and manufacturing industries [22]. Major Industrial Output - The output data of major industrial products from June 2024 to June 2025 are listed, including energy products, industrial raw materials, and finished products [24]. Industry Electricity Consumption - The year - on - year growth rates of electricity consumption of major industries from March 2024 to May 2025 are given, including agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, mining, and manufacturing [33]. Industrial Enterprise Profits - From January to June 2025, the total profit of large - scale industrial enterprises was 3.4365 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 1.8%. The main industry profit situations vary, with some industries showing growth and others decline [36]. - From January to June 2025, the mining industry's profit was 429.41 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 30.3%; the manufacturing industry's profit was 2.59006 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.5%; the electricity, heat, gas and water production and supply industry's profit was 417.04 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.3% [41]. Industrial Enterprise Inventory - As of the end of May 2025, the finished product inventory of large - scale industrial enterprises was 6.65 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.5%. The overall inventory is in a stage from passive replenishment to passive destocking [46]. Price Index CPI - In July 2025, the CPI was flat year - on - year. Food prices decreased, while non - food prices increased. The average CPI from January to July decreased by 0.1% compared with the same period last year [51]. - The year - on - year and month - on - month data of CPI sub - items from July 2024 to July 2025 are presented, including food, clothing, housing, and other categories [52]. PPI - In July 2025, the PPI decreased by 3.6% year - on - year, and the purchasing price index for industrial producers decreased by 4.5%. The average PPI from January to July decreased by 2.9% compared with the same period last year [58]. - The year - on - year data of PPI for major industries from July 2024 to July 2025 are provided, including production materials, living materials, and various mining and manufacturing industries [58][61]. - The year - on - year data of industrial producer purchasing prices from July 2024 to July 2025 are given, including fuel power, black metal materials, and other categories [62]. Main City Newly - Built Residential Prices - The year - on - year and month - on - month data of the price index of newly - built commercial residential buildings in 70 large and medium - sized cities from June 2015 to June 2025 are shown, including data for first - tier, second - tier, and third - tier cities [63][64][66].
华联期货PVC周报-20250810
Hua Lian Qi Huo· 2025-08-10 13:27
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoint The overall supply - demand situation of PVC remains weak. Although the calcium carbide price has rebounded slightly, it is still in a weak range, lacking valuation drive. The trends within the black building materials sector are divergent. It is recommended to either wait and observe or conduct intraday short - term trading, with the V2601 contract range reference at 5050 - 5300 [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Supply - Side - **Capacity and Output**: The effective PVC capacity has reached 2.852 billion tons. Last week, the PVC output was 475,900 tons, a 5.22% increase from the previous week and a 9.63% increase year - on - year. The calcium carbide method's effective capacity is 2.033 billion tons, accounting for about 71.3%, with a weekly output of 336,100 tons (up 3.54% week - on - week and 0.30% year - on - year). The ethylene method's effective capacity is 767 million tons, accounting for about 28.7%, with a weekly output of 139,800 tons (up 9.48% week - on - week and 41.21% year - on - year) [19][22][25]. - **开工率**: Last week, the upstream PVC operating rate was 79.46%, up 2.62 percentage points week - on - week and 4.73 percentage points year - on - year, at a relatively high level. The calcium carbide method's operating rate was 78.65%, up 2.62 percentage points week - on - week and 0.78 percentage points year - on - year. The ethylene method's operating rate was 81.49%, up 2.50 percentage points week - on - week and 15.73 percentage points year - on - year [28][30]. - **Imports**: From January to June 2025, the cumulative PVC imports were 124,300 tons, a 0.51% increase year - on - year. The cumulative imports of plastics and their products were 9.8782 billion tons, a 2.97% decrease year - on - year [33]. 3.2 Demand - Side - **Apparent Consumption and Sales - to - Production Ratio**: From January to June 2025, the cumulative apparent consumption of PVC was 1.0172 billion tons, a 3.03% decrease year - on - year. Last week, the PVC sales - to - production ratio was 175%, a 14 - percentage - point decrease week - on - week but a 46 - percentage - point increase year - on - year [38]. - **Downstream Operating Rate**: The comprehensive operating rate of downstream products increased slightly but remained the weakest in the same period. The operating rate of mainstream pipes continued to decline, while those of profiles and films remained stable. Weak real - estate conditions have dragged down demand, resulting in insufficient orders for downstream enterprises and low inventory - building willingness [41]. - **Exports**: From January to June 2025, the cumulative PVC exports were 1.9605 billion tons, a significant 50.26% increase year - on - year, but there was a significant month - on - month decline in June. The cumulative exports of PVC flooring materials were 2.09 million tons, a 11.14% decrease year - on - year [47][49]. 3.3 Inventory - The domestic PVC social inventory (41 companies) was 77,660 tons last week, a 7.50% increase week - on - week and a 17.48% decrease year - on - year. The enterprise inventory was 337,200 tons, a 2.35% decrease week - on - week and a 12.66% increase year - on - year. The number of registered warehouse receipts continued to increase [54][56]. 3.4 Valuation - **Raw Materials**: The price of semi - coke remained stable last week, lower than the same period last year. The price of calcium carbide increased significantly week - on - week, with the mainstream price in Wuhai at 2,350 yuan/ton. The prices of ethylene and vinyl chloride remained stable week - on - week and were lower than the same period last year. The price of liquid caustic soda decreased slightly week - on - week but was slightly higher year - on - year, while the price of liquid chlorine rebounded slightly week - on - week and was higher year - on - year [60][63][66]. - **Profit**: The loss of externally purchased calcium carbide - method PVC widened week - on - week and was lower than the same period last year. The loss of the ethylene method also widened slightly week - on - week and was at the weakest level in the same period. The production profit of Shandong chlor - alkali rebounded slightly week - on - week and was higher year - on - year [69][73]. 3.5 Futures Market - **Contract Spreads**: Last week, the 1 - 5 spread of PVC weakened, remaining stable year - on - year; the 5 - 9 spread fluctuated, lower than the same period last year. The 9 - 1 spread had a narrow - range fluctuation, higher than the same period last year. The basis of the main contract weakened week - on - week and was lower than the same period last year. The overall futures monthly spread structure maintains a contango pattern, indicating that expectations are stronger than reality [12][15].
煤矿供应预期收缩,双焦偏强震荡
Hua Lian Qi Huo· 2025-08-10 13:24
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoint of the Report - The supply of domestic coal is expected to be constrained in August, and the supply ceiling effect is obvious, making it difficult to return to high - level production. The recovery of domestic coal supply is slow, and the production has decreased week - on - week. Although the customs clearance of Mongolian coal has returned to medium - high levels, it can only partially make up for the reduction of domestic coal. - The demand for coking coal and coke remains strong. The blast furnace operating rate of steel mills has increased slightly, and the iron - making water production has only slightly decreased. The profitability of steel mills has improved, and the losses of coking enterprises have narrowed. After the price increase, speculative demand has increased. - The inventory of coking coal and coke continues to decline. The inventory of coal mines, coking plants, and steel mills has different trends, but the overall inventory is decreasing. - It is expected that coking coal and coke will continue to be strong, and the strategy is to go long on the coking coal 2601 contract at low levels, with a reference support level of 1120 yuan/ton [4]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs **Weekly Viewpoint and Strategy** - **Supply**: Last week, the coal mine start - up rate dropped significantly, and the supply recovery was slow, with production decreasing week - on - week. In August, it is difficult for domestic coal production to return to high levels due to over - production inspections and stricter safety supervision. The customs clearance of Mongolian coal has returned to medium - high levels. On August 8, the capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking plants was 73.75%, a week - on - week increase of 0.27%, and the daily average output of all - sample independent coking enterprises was 65.1 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.29 tons [4]. - **Demand**: The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.75%, a week - on - week increase of 0.29%. The daily average iron - making water production decreased by 0.39 tons to 242.32 tons. The profitability of steel mills was 68.4%, a 3.03% increase from the previous week. The average profit per ton of coke was - 16 yuan/ton, a 29 - yuan increase from the previous week. After the fifth round of price increases for coke, the losses of coking enterprises have narrowed, and the sixth round may be implemented soon. After the price increase, speculative demand has increased [4]. - **Inventory**: Last week, the inventory of coal mines continued to decline, but the decline rate slowed down. On August 8, the raw coal inventory of 523 sample mines was 476.52 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6.78 tons. The coking coal inventory of coking plants decreased, while that of steel mills continued to rise. The inventory of independent coking enterprises and steel mills for coke continued to decline, and the port coke inventory increased slightly, with the total coke inventory continuing to decline [4]. - **Viewpoint**: Last week, there were frequent disturbances on the coal mine supply side. Under the influence of policies, domestic coal production will be restricted, and the supply contraction expectation has boosted market sentiment. The rigid demand for coking coal and coke remains strong, and speculative demand has increased after the price increase. It is expected that coking coal and coke will continue to be strong [4]. - **Strategy**: Go long on the coking coal 2601 contract at low levels, with a reference support level of 1120 yuan/ton [4]. **Industrial Chain Structure** - **Futures and Spot Markets**: The report presents multiple charts of coking coal and coke futures contracts, including the DCE jm2509, jm2601, j2509, j2601 contracts, as well as the price trends of coking coal and coke spot, and the price differences between contracts [9][14][19][26]. - **Inventory**: It shows the inventory trends of coking coal (including washing plants, mines, ports, steel mills, and coking enterprises) and coke (including coking enterprises, steel mills, and ports) from 2021 to 2025 [33][42]. - **Supply Side**: - **Coking Coal Import**: Displays the monthly import volume of coking coal from the world, Mongolia, Australia, and Russia to China from 2021 to 2025 [52]. - **Washing Coal Production**: Presents the start - up rate and daily average output of 110 washing plants from 2021 to 2025 [57]. - **Coking Production**: On August 8, the capacity utilization rate of 230 coking enterprises was 73.75%, a week - on - week increase of 0.27%, and the daily average output of all - sample independent coking enterprises was 65.1 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.29 tons [61]. - **Steel Mill Coke Production**: The current capacity utilization rate of steel mill coke is 86.3%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.32%, and the daily average output is 46.8 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.17 tons [64]. - **Demand Side**: - **Hot Metal and Operating Rate**: The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.75%, a week - on - week increase of 0.29%, and the daily average iron - making water production decreased by 0.39 tons to 242.32 tons [68]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The report shows the production and consumption trends of rebar and hot - rolled coil from 2021 to 2025 [69][71]. - **Long - Process and Short - Process**: Displays the production trends of long - process and short - process rebar from 2021 to 2025 [77]. - **Steel Mill and Coke Profit per Ton**: As of August 8, 2025, the profitability of 247 steel mills was 68.4%, a 3.03% increase from the previous week. The average profit per ton of coke was - 16 yuan/ton, a 29 - yuan increase from the previous week [82].
铁矿石周报:需求韧性仍存,铁矿区间震荡-20250810
Hua Lian Qi Huo· 2025-08-10 13:15
Report Title - The report is titled "Hualian Futures Iron Ore Weekly Report: Demand Resilience Remains, Iron Ore Ranges Sideways" [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoint - The current overseas mines are in the shipping off - season, and the demand side has strong resilience, which supports the iron ore price. It is expected that the iron ore price will maintain a range - bound oscillation in the short term [4] Summary by Directory 1. Supply - **Global Shipping Volume**: From July 28 to August 3, 2025, the global iron ore shipping volume decreased by 139,100 tons week - on - week to 3.0618 million tons. The shipping volume from non - mainstream regions increased by 74,800 tons week - on - week to 597,900 tons [4][50] - **Australia and Brazil Shipping**: Australia's 19 ports shipped 1.7212 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 72,300 tons; Brazil's 19 ports shipped 742,700 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 141,600 tons [4][47] - **Arrival Volume in China**: From July 28 to August 3, 2025, the arrival volume at China's 45 ports increased by 267,300 tons week - on - week to 2.5078 million tons; the total arrival volume at the six northern ports was 1.2531 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 95,800 tons [4][59] - **Domestic Mine Supply**: As of August 8, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of 126 mine enterprises was 62.06%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.36%; the daily output of iron concentrate powder was 39,160 tons per day, a decrease of 2,200 tons from the previous week [75] 2. Demand - **Steel Mill Indicators**: As of August 8, 2025, the profitability rate of 247 steel mills was 68.4%, a week - on - week increase of 3.03%; the blast furnace operating rate was 83.75%, a week - on - week increase of 0.29%; the daily average hot metal output decreased by 3,900 tons week - on - week to 240,320 tons, but the demand resilience remained [4][78][95] - **Transaction Volume**: The daily average trading volume of iron ore forward spot and the total trading volume at major Chinese ports are presented in the report, but specific data trends are not described in detail [80] - **Steel Product Output and Consumption**: The output and consumption of rebar and hot - rolled coils are shown in the report, but specific data trends are not described in detail [83][85] 3. Inventory - **Port Inventory**: As of August 8, 2025, the inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports in China was 13.71227 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 54,370 tons. The inventory of Australian ore was 6.1381 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 141,250 tons; the inventory of Brazilian ore was 4.87207 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 29,000 tons [4][25][29] - **Steel Mill Inventory**: The steel mill's imported iron ore inventory was 9.01334 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1,250 tons. The average available days of imported ore inventory for a small sample of steel mills was 20 days, a decrease of 1 day from the previous week [4][43] 4. Strategy - Go long on the Iron Ore 2601 contract on dips, with a reference support level of 750 yuan/ton [4]
关注关税是否如期延期
Hua Lian Qi Huo· 2025-08-10 13:15
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the broader market opened slightly lower and trended upward, reaching a new high for the year. All four major indices rose, with small-cap stock indices performing strongly. The style indices also all increased, with the cyclical index having the largest gain of nearly 3.5%. Most industries in the Shenwan classification rose, with military, non-ferrous metals, machinery, and comprehensive sectors leading the gains, all with over 5% increases, while only a few sectors like pharmaceutical biology, computer, commercial trade, and tourism posted small losses [4][11][13]. - In July 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, and the non-manufacturing PMI was 50%, down 0.1 percentage points. Supply and demand both declined, with production down 0.6%, new orders down 0.8%, and new export orders down 0.6%. The inventory of finished products decreased again after a one - month increase. Prices of factory - made goods and major raw material purchases increased for two consecutive months after three months of decline [4][23]. - The Politburo set the tone for the real estate market to stop falling and stabilize, and to boost the capital market. The central bank created two new monetary policy tools, cut the reserve requirement ratio, and lowered interest rates, including reducing the interest rates of existing mortgages. The CSRC proposed measures for mergers, acquisitions, and market value management to increase market activity. An implementation plan for promoting the entry of long - term funds into the market was officially released, which is expected to bring an additional 800 billion yuan of long - term funds to the A - share market annually [4]. - In terms of revenue, the revenue growth rates of the ChiNext, ChiNext, and CSI 500 indices increased, while those of the CSI 1000, Shanghai Composite, SSE 50, and CSI 300 indices declined. In terms of net profit attributable to the parent company, except for the Shanghai Composite Index, the net profit growth rates of other indices all increased significantly. Although the performance of the entire A - share market shows signs of stabilization, the 30% increase in tariffs imposed by the US since the second quarter of 2025 may affect the fundamentals of the A - share market, and the A - share performance may bottom out again [4]. - The broader market was oscillating at a high level last Friday, reaching a new high for the year and approaching last year's high. As the August 12 tariff deadline approaches, attention should be paid to whether the tariffs can be extended as scheduled. Overall, the market may need to oscillate and consolidate near the previous high. However, with the stabilization of the net profit attributable to the parent company of the entire A - share market and the four major indices in the first quarter, as well as long - term policy and capital support, the stock index is still optimistic in the long - term. Technically, the broader market has been rising continuously, reaching a new high for the year and is expected to break through the previous high. In the short - term, attention should be paid to whether the Sino - US tariffs will be extended. Operationally, it is advisable to go long on pullbacks in the medium - term, and for options, a bull spread strategy can be considered [7][8] Summary by Related Catalogs Index Industry Trends Review - Last week, the broader market opened slightly lower and trended upward, hitting a new high for the year. All four major indices rose, with small - cap stock indices outperforming [11] - All style indices rose last week, with the cyclical index having the largest gain of nearly 3.5%, followed by growth, financial, stable, and consumer style indices. Most industries in the Shenwan classification rose, with military, non - ferrous metals, machinery, and comprehensive sectors leading the gains, all with over 5% increases. Only a few sectors like pharmaceutical biology, computer, commercial trade, and tourism posted small losses [13] Main Contract and Basis Trends - The four major indices attacked again, with the CSI 1000 breaking through last year's high first. In terms of the basis, the discount of the 08 contract continued to narrow within a reasonable range [16] - In terms of the arbitrage of main contracts, IC/IF and IC/IH oscillated upwards, IH/IF fluctuated, and IM/IF and IM/IH oscillated upwards [20] Policy and Economy - In July 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, and the non - manufacturing PMI was 50%, down 0.1 percentage points. Supply and demand both declined, with production down 0.6%, new orders down 0.8%, and new export orders down 0.6%. The inventory of finished products decreased again after a one - month increase. Prices of factory - made goods and major raw material purchases increased for two consecutive months after three months of decline [23] - Generally, PPI leads the inventory cycle (by 1 month to 1 year, with an average of about half a year). PPI bottomed out and rebounded in June 2023, weakened after two months, and has seen a continuous narrowing of the decline since March 2024. The decline of PPI widened again in July, narrowed again since November until it widened for four consecutive months from March 2025, and remained the same as the previous month in July. In May, the revenue of industrial enterprises continued to decline to 2.7%, and the inventory decreased by 3.5%, indicating a possible entry into the active inventory replenishment stage, corresponding to an economic slowdown [25] - In June 2025, the year - on - year increase in social financing was 419.93 billion yuan, compared with 22.46 billion yuan in the previous period. Government bonds increased by 135.48 billion yuan, and RMB loans increased by 236.37 billion yuan, with an year - on - year increase of 17.1 billion yuan, mainly due to an increase of 17 billion yuan in enterprise loans, including an increase of 49 billion yuan in short - term loans and a rebound in medium - and long - term loans [27] - The growth rate of medium - and long - term credit has been declining for 25 consecutive months to 6.77% as of June 2025, down from the high of 12.94% in May 2023. The growth rate last month was 6.78%, and the decline rate has slowed down significantly [30] - The implementation plan for promoting the entry of long - term funds into the market aims to increase the actual investment ratio, extend the assessment period, and strengthen the synergy of policies. It is expected to bring additional long - term funds to the A - share market annually, and the second - batch pilot of long - term stock investment by insurance funds will be implemented in the first half of 2025, with a scale of no less than 10 billion yuan [32] - The Politburo meeting emphasized boosting the capital market, promoting the entry of long - term funds, supporting mergers and acquisitions and reorganizations of listed companies, and promoting the reform of public funds. It also called for increasing the counter - cyclical adjustment of fiscal and monetary policies, stabilizing the real estate market, and implementing a series of measures such as reducing the reserve requirement ratio and interest rates [35] - The central bank created new monetary policy tools, including a swap facility for securities, funds, and insurance companies, and a re - loan for stock repurchase and increase. It also carried out MLF operations, reverse repurchase operations, and adjusted interest rates. In addition, a series of measures such as reducing the reserve requirement ratio, lowering policy interest rates, and increasing re - loan quotas were implemented [36][38][40] - The total debt - resolution scale is divided into three parts, with the first two parts directly adding 1 trillion yuan of local debt - resolution funds. After the replacement of implicit debts, the local debt - resolution pressure will be greatly reduced [37] Revenue and Net Profit of Each Index - Except for the CSI 500, the year - on - year revenue growth rates of each index in the 2024 annual report declined. In terms of net profit attributable to the parent company, the SSE 50 index continued to grow year - on - year, the CSI 300 index had a small increase, and the CSI 500, ChiNext, and Shenzhen Component Indexes declined to varying degrees [47] - In terms of revenue, the revenue growth rates of the Shenzhen Component, ChiNext, and CSI 500 indices increased, while those of the CSI 1000, Shanghai Composite, SSE 50, and CSI 300 indices declined. In terms of net profit attributable to the parent company, the net profit growth rates of all indices except the Shanghai Composite Index increased significantly [53] - The performance of the entire A - share market shows signs of stabilization, but the 30% increase in tariffs imposed by the US since April may affect the A - share market. In the first quarter of 2025, the performance of IC/IM bottomed out and stabilized, while IH/IF declined year - on - year [57][60] Valuation - The valuation of the Shanghai Composite Index is 15.6876, with an upper - bound value of 15.51, and it is at the 78.41 percentile since 2010. The valuation of the ChiNext is still relatively low [66] Capital Flow - From April 7 to August 8, 2025, the ETF scale increased by 34.4 billion yuan, and last week it decreased by 7.3 billion yuan. From January 1 to June 27, 2025, the scale of newly established equity funds increased by 171.3 billion yuan [5][71] - In terms of margin trading, there was a net inflow of 274.8 billion yuan in 2024. As of August 7, 2025, the net inflow in the first five trading days was 27.9 billion yuan, and the net inflow in 2025 was 200.1 billion yuan [79] - In the first quarter of 2025, the market value of A - shares held by insurance funds increased significantly by 389.3 billion yuan, while the CSI 300 index fell by 1.21%. At the end of 2024, the assets of the national team and insurance funds increased, while the assets of the Hong Kong - Shanghai Stock Connect decreased. Specifically, it was mainly the assets of Central Huijin and insurance funds that increased [75] - As of last weekend, the IPO financing in 2023 was 356.5 billion yuan, 67.3 billion yuan in 2024, and 63.7 billion yuan in 2025 [84] - In the week from August 1 to August 8, 2025, the ETF share increased by 36.368 billion shares (+1.33%), reaching 2780.699 billion shares, and the total scale increased by 65.598 billion yuan (+1.43%), reaching 4658.878 billion yuan [88] - Last week, major shareholders in the secondary market continued to have a net reduction of 5.9 billion yuan [92] - There will be a large amount of restricted - share unlockings in mid - August [93]
供需有所改善,但成本驱动偏空
Hua Lian Qi Huo· 2025-08-10 13:12
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The short - term supply and demand of PTA are acceptable, but the external market fluctuates greatly, and the valuation drive is weak, with the technical side showing range - bound fluctuations. The cost of crude oil has been falling continuously, and attention should be paid to the support at the lower edge of the range. TA processing fees continue to weaken, and the losses of downstream products have improved. It is recommended to focus on trading in the 4600 - 4800 range of the 2601 contract [4] Summary by Directory Supply - Last week, the average weekly PTA capacity utilization rate was 76.10%, a decrease of 3.57 percentage points from the previous week and 2.26 percentage points from the same period last year, at a neutral level in the same period. Multiple sets of equipment in the East China region had short - term outages or maintenance, and some enterprises reduced their loads due to efficiency issues, leading to a decrease in the operating rate [4][18] - Last week, PTA production was 136,840 tons, a decrease of 4.03% from the previous week and an increase of 1.66% from the same period last year. From January to June 2025, China's cumulative PTA imports were 14,130 tons, a year - on - year increase of 84.61%. With the gradual increase in domestic self - sufficiency, imports are relatively low and can be basically ignored [22] Demand - In July 2025, the actual PTA consumption was 5.9785 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.28% and a year - on - year increase of 8.78%. Last week, the average polyester operating rate was 86.21%, an increase of 0.39 percentage points from the previous week and 2.08 percentage points from the same period last year, generally at a neutral level in the same period [24] - Last week, the weekly output of the polyester industry was 1.5137 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.68% and a year - on - year increase of 10.29%. As of August 7, the comprehensive operating rate of chemical fiber weaving in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 55.75%, an increase of 0.16 percentage points from the previous week and a decrease of 3.2 percentage points from the same period last year. Downstream texturing and terminal weaving factories have a strong cautious and wait - and - see attitude, mainly consuming their previous raw material inventories. The sales data of polyester filament have been in a sluggish state [4][26] - From January to June 2025, the cumulative PTA export volume was 1.8568 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 16.90%. From January to June, the cumulative export value of textiles was 143 million US dollars, the same as the same period last year [45] Inventory - According to Longzhong Information statistics, last week, the PTA industry inventory was about 3.7315 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.32%. The PTA factory inventory was 3.7 days, a decrease of 0.12 days from the previous week and 0.15 days from the same period last year [49] - Last week, the PTA raw material inventory of polyester factories was 7.3 days, an increase of 0.3 days from the previous week and a decrease of 0.81 days from the same period last year [51] Futures Market - Last week, the 1 - 5 spread remained stable from the previous week and was weak compared to the same period last year. The 5 - 9 spread increased slightly from the previous week and was high compared to the same period last year. The overall futures monthly spread showed a flat - water structure [11] - The 9 - 1 spread decreased from the previous week and was weak compared to the same period last year. The basis fluctuated and was weak compared to the same period last year [14] Valuation - The PTA spot processing fee continued to decline from the previous week and was weak compared to the same period last year [70] - The PTA futures disk processing fee decreased slightly from the previous week and was low compared to the same period last year [73]
原油周报:俄美谈判扰动,油价回落-20250810
Hua Lian Qi Huo· 2025-08-10 12:54
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - Geopolitical factors such as Russia - US negotiations have recently caused many disturbances, leading to a short - term decline in oil prices. However, the overall good performance of crude oil processing demand and the weak actual production increase of OPEC+ support oil prices. The supply side has uncertainties, and the demand side shows an overall upward trend with stable growth [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Weekly View and Strategy - **Inventory**: Last week, US commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 3 million barrels to 423.7 million barrels, gasoline inventory decreased by 1.3 million barrels to 227.1 million barrels, and distillate inventory decreased by 565,000 barrels to 113 million barrels. Cushing crude oil inventory in Oklahoma increased by 453,000 barrels [4][20]. - **Supply**: US crude oil production remained at 13.3 million barrels per day. OPEC+ plans to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in September, and 8 OPEC+ countries are expected to increase production by a cumulative 2.467 million barrels per day from April to September. Since 2022, OPEC+ has cut production by 5.85 million barrels per day, about 5.7% of global supply. The supply side has uncertainties [4][33]. - **Demand**: US refinery crude oil processing volume increased by 213,000 barrels per day to 17.124 million barrels per day, and the capacity utilization rate rose by 1.5 percentage points to 96.9%. Gasoline demand decreased by 112,000 barrels per day but remained above 9 million barrels per day. In June, China's industrial crude oil processing increased year - on - year, and the demand side is expected to rise steadily [4]. - **View**: Geopolitical factors have led to a short - term decline in oil prices, but good processing demand and weak OPEC+ production increase support oil prices. The supply - side production increase progress needs to be observed, and the demand side is expected to be boosted [4]. - **Strategy**: Buy operations [4] 3.2. Balance Sheet and Industrial Chain Structure - **Global Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It provides detailed data on global crude oil production, consumption, inventory net withdrawals, and end - of - period inventories from 2024 to 2025, including breakdowns by OPEC, non - OPEC, OECD, and non - OECD regions [6]. - **Industrial Chain Structure**: It shows the processing flow of crude oil from the atmospheric and vacuum distillation unit to various refined products such as ethylene, propylene, diesel, and gasoline [9] 3.3. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures - Spot Structure**: It presents data on domestic and foreign price differences, monthly price differences, INE crude oil futures - spot price differences, and BRENT crude oil term price differences [11][13][15] - **Freight Index and Port Freight Rates**: It shows the trends of the crude oil transportation index (BDTI), the refined oil transportation index (BCTI), and port freight rates [16] 3.4. Inventory - **US Crude Oil Inventory**: Last week, due to increased exports, US crude oil inventory decreased, and the net import volume also decreased [4][20]. - **China Crude Oil Inventory**: In June, the inventory increment declined because of the increase in domestic crude oil processing demand [25]. - **Crude Oil Warehouse Receipts**: The INE crude oil warehouse receipts have recently remained at a low level, indicating a low inventory level of deliverable oil depots [29] 3.5. Supply Side - **OPEC Production**: In June, OPEC+ daily crude oil production was 41.559 million barrels, an increase of 349,000 barrels from May but lower than the planned increase. OPEC+ plans to increase production in September, and the 8 - country production increase plan from April to September is 2.467 million barrels per day [33]. - **US Production**: Last week, US crude oil production remained at 13.3 million barrels per day. The growth space of US shale oil production is limited, and the production may enter a bottleneck period [38]. - **Global Production**: The supply side has uncertainties, including the uncertain OPEC+ production increase process, the impact of sanctions on Russian and Venezuelan crude oil, and the limited growth of US shale oil production [42] 3.6. Demand Side - **China Demand**: In June, China's industrial crude oil processing increased year - on - year. With the boost of travel demand, China's crude oil demand is expected to recover. China's crude oil imports and exports data from January to July 2025 are also provided [49][54][57]. - **US Demand**: US refinery crude oil processing volume increased, the capacity utilization rate rose, and gasoline demand remained above 9 million barrels per day. The US is in the driving season, and demand is slightly better than last year [61][64]