Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, Shanghai Tin (SHFE Tin) showed an overall oscillatory trend. On November 7, 2025, the spot price of Mysteel's comprehensive 1 tin was 283,750 yuan/ton, with little fluctuation in futures prices and basis during the period [11]. - Refined tin production in September was 9,770 tons, down both month - on - month and year - on - year, and is expected to return to normal in October. Domestic tin ore production from January to August totaled 50,200 tons, with a slight year - on - year increase, remaining stable. The resumption of mining production in Myanmar has repeatedly affected the price range [11]. - In September, the demand for integrated circuits, automobiles, and PVC maintained good growth, while the demand in traditional sectors such as computers, some white goods, and photovoltaics slowed down. It is expected that the demand in emerging sectors will remain resilient in October, while the demand in some traditional sectors will be adjusted [11]. - The ore end remains tight, and processing fees continue to decline weakly. Overall, profits will remain low under the interference of the ore end [11]. - LME and SHFE inventories increased slightly week - on - week, while social inventories decreased slightly week - on - week [11]. - Due to insufficient supply, the domestic economy remains resilient, and the prosperity of semiconductors, automobiles, etc. generally maintains an upward trend. Overseas uncertainties are still high, and there is still an expectation of interest rate cuts in the later period. The ore end situation is unstable. In terms of operation, those with heavy positions can appropriately reduce their positions, and conduct light - position long - biased trading, with the weekly support level around 273,000 - 275,000 yuan/ton. For options, sell out - of - the - money put options [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Viewpoints and Strategies - **Market Conditions**: SHFE Tin oscillated last week. On November 7, 2025, the spot price of 1 tin was 283,750 yuan/ton, with little change in futures prices and basis [11]. - **Supply**: Refined tin production in September was 9,770 tons, down month - on - month and year - on - year, expected to recover in October. Domestic tin ore production from January to August was 50,200 tons, with a slight year - on - year increase. The resumption of mining in Myanmar affected price points [11]. - **Demand**: In September, the demand for integrated circuits, automobiles, and PVC increased well, while traditional sectors slowed down. In October, emerging sectors are expected to maintain demand resilience, and some traditional sectors will be adjusted. The tariff adjustment on US - originated goods and the decline in China's October PMI are also factors [11]. - **Cost and Profit**: The ore end is tight, processing fees are declining, and profits will remain low [11]. - **Inventory**: LME, SHFE inventories increased slightly week - on - week, and social inventories decreased slightly [11]. - **Strategy**: Due to supply shortages, domestic economic resilience, and overseas uncertainties, heavy - position holders can reduce positions, conduct light - position long - biased trading with a support level of 273,000 - 275,000 yuan/ton. Sell out - of - the - money put options. Focus on macro - measures, mining disturbances, Indonesian export speed, and consumption data [11]. - **Influence Factors Analysis**: Production has a neutral impact as the ore supply is expected to ease; downstream demand is bullish as the industry demand outlook is positive; inventory is bullish due to inventory depletion; imports and exports are neutral with stable net exports; market sentiment is bearish; cost and profit are neutral with low processing fees; and the macro - environment is neutral with no new policies [12]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Structure The report mentions the tin industrial chain, but no detailed content is provided. 3.3 Futures and Spot Markets The report presents graphs of SHFE and LME tin futures and spot prices and basis, but no specific analysis is given [17]. 3.4 Inventory - As of November 6, 2025, SHFE inventory was 5,865 tons, increasing slightly week - on - week. As of November 5, 2025, LME total inventory was 2,975 tons, also increasing slightly week - on - week. As of October 31, 2025, refined tin social inventory was 7,698 tons, decreasing slightly week - on - week [27][31]. 3.5 Cost and Profit As of November 6, 2025, the processing fee for Yunnan's refined ore was 11,000 yuan/ton, and that for Guangxi's was 7,000 yuan/ton, continuing to be weak [35]. 3.6 Supply - In September 2025, refined tin production was 9,770 tons, significantly decreasing month - on - month due to major factory maintenance, and is expected to return to normal supply in October. Domestic tin ore production in August was 6,854.21 tons, increasing slightly month - on - month [40]. - In September 2025, the capacity utilization rate of tin enterprises was about 64.23%, showing a decline [47]. 3.7 Demand - In September 2025, China's automobile production was 3.227 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 13.7%. In August 2025, China's electronic computer production was 32.66 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 4.8% [51]. - In October 2025, China's PVC production was 2.1281 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.6%. In September 2025, China's mobile electronic communication production was 150.29 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 9.4% [54]. - In September 2025, China's air - conditioner production was 18.0948 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 3%. In September 2025, China's refrigerator production was 10.1275 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 2% [58]. - In September 2025, China's washing - machine production was 11.7848 million units, a year - on - year increase of 5.6%. In September 2025, China's color TV production was 20.6305 million units, a year - on - year increase of 3.9% [62]. - In September 2025, China's solar energy production was 70.87 million kilowatts, a year - on - year decrease of 1%. In September 2025, China's integrated circuit production was 43.7 million pieces, a year - on - year increase of 5.9% [66]. 3.8 Import and Export In September 2025, China imported 8,700 tons of tin ore, 1,269 tons of tin ingots, and exported 1,789 tons of refined tin [71]. 3.9 Supply - Demand Table The report provides a tin balance sheet from 2017 to 2025E, showing China's and overseas production, global supply, China's and overseas demand, and global supply - demand balance. For example, in 2025E, China's production is expected to be 184,500 tons, overseas production 185,000 tons, global supply 369,500 tons, China's demand 193,000 tons, overseas demand 186,000 tons, and the global supply - demand balance is - 9,500 tons [74].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic methanol market is under significant supply pressure, with high domestic开工率 and production, and continuously high import volumes. The demand is weak, with most downstream industries'开工率 showing a continuous decline. Port methanol inventory is at an extremely high level, with tight tank capacity and rising floating storage. As a result, the methanol price may continue to seek support downward. Key factors to monitor include domestic port inventory and the operation of MTO devices [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Viewpoint and Strategy - For unilateral and options trading, adopt a bearish strategy. In options trading, sell call options [7]. - MA unilateral strategy: Short MA509. The price is under pressure and falling. As of November 06, the price of MA601 was 2,125 yuan/ton. The logic is high domestic production, record - high imports, average demand, and extremely high port inventory, leading to a bearish operation recommendation [11]. - PP - 3MA strategy: Short the PP - 3MA spread. The spread is in a rebound trend. As of November 06, the spread of the January contract was 96 yuan/ton. The logic is that the supply pressure of PP is greater than that of methanol, and MTO profit is under pressure. However, in the short term, methanol is bearish due to extremely high inventory. The operation recommendation is to short on rallies and wait and see for now [14]. 3.2 Methanol Supply and Demand Overview 3.2.1 Supply - Inventory: As of November 5, 2025, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 386,400 tons, a week - on - week increase of 10,400 tons or 2.75%. The overall inventory shows a slight downward trend in some areas, but port inventory is expected to continue to accumulate. The port inventory was 1,517,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 10,600 tons or 0.70% [8][111][113]. - Production and Capacity Utilization: In November, the weekly data of China's methanol production is expected to be around 2,008,400 tons, with a capacity utilization rate of about 88.51%, an increase from the current period. From October 31 to November 6, 2025, the methanol production was 1,992,055 tons, a week - on - week increase of 26,860 tons, and the device capacity utilization rate was 87.79%, a week - on - week increase of 1.36% [8][69]. - Imports: The estimated arrival plan of methanol import samples is 436,100 tons, including 368,100 tons of visible imports and 68,000 tons of non - visible imports. From October 30 to November 5, 2025, the Chinese methanol sample arrival volume was 387,000 tons, including 345,800 tons of foreign vessels (232,000 tons of visible and 113,800 tons of non - visible) and 41,200 tons of domestic trade vessels [8][76]. - New Capacity in 2025: China's new methanol capacity in 2025 is about 8.6 million tons, with a capacity increase of about 8.4%. Most of the new devices are equipped with downstream facilities such as MTO, acetic acid, and BDO [78][79]. 3.2.2 Demand - MTO Industry: The MTO industry's开工率 is 90.6%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.37%. The load of olefin enterprises in East China was slightly adjusted, the load of Shandong Luxi was at a low level, and the load of Xinjiang Hengyou increased. After the offset, the olefin industry's开工 continued to decline this week [86]. - Traditional Downstream Industries: The traditional demand is poor, and the开工率 is low. The开工率 of formaldehyde, glacial acetic acid, and chloride industries is expected to rise, while the开工 rate of dimethyl ether is expected to remain flat [8][89]. - Downstream Procurement and Orders: As of November 5, 2025, the pending orders of sample enterprises were 221,100 tons, an increase of 5,500 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week increase of 2.57% [105]. - New Downstream Capacity: In 2025, there are new production capacities in various downstream industries such as methane chloride, glacial acetic acid, formaldehyde, and others [107]. 3.3 Price and Spread - Spot Price and Basis: As of November 06, the spot price in Jiangsu Taicang was 2,080 yuan/ton, and the basis relative to the January contract was - 45 yuan/ton [18]. - Domestic Spread and Freight: Data on the spread between Taicang and Inner Mongolia and the spread and freight between Inner Mongolia and Dongying are presented, but no specific analysis is provided in the summary part [19]. - International Methanol and Natural Gas Price: Data on international methanol prices (including Southeast Asia CFR, China CFR, and Rotterdam FOB) and international natural gas prices (including European and Henry Hub) are presented, but no specific analysis is provided in the summary part [23][25]. - Inter - contract Spread: Data on the spread between methanol 9 - 1, 1 - 5, and 5 - 9 contracts are presented, but no specific analysis is provided in the summary part [27][30]. - Related Product Ratio: Data on the ratio of methanol to urea and methanol to liquefied gas (based on the main contracts) are presented, but no specific analysis is provided in the summary part [34]. 3.4 Industrial Chain Profit - Import Profit: The import profit remains in a loss, currently at - 30 yuan/ton [8]. - Coal - based Methanol Production Profit: The loss of coal - based methanol production profit in Inner Mongolia has widened, currently at - 227 yuan/ton [8]. - Downstream Profit: The downstream profit is in a large loss. The profit of East China MTO remains in a loss, currently at - 808 yuan/ton [8].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, SHFE nickel fluctuated, with a weekly decline of 0.95%. The adjustment of tariff measures on US - imported goods and China's October official manufacturing PMI data were released. Domestically, the economy is resilient with rising prosperity in new energy and semiconductors, while overseas uncertainties remain high with a high - probability of future interest rate cuts. [6] - In terms of supply, RKAB approval in 2025 provides sufficient raw materials for smelters, but new policy risks still exist. In September, China's nickel imports were large, nickel - iron production was low in China and high in Indonesia. The operating rate of nickel sulfate enterprises rebounded, and production increased slightly in September. In October 2025, domestic refined nickel production declined from a high level. [6] - Regarding demand, stainless - steel production improved in September and is expected to have a mild rebound in October. Domestic stainless - steel inventory is still high, and the inventory increased after a decrease. In the new - energy industry chain, the market share of ternary batteries is declining, but the output of ternary materials increased significantly from August to September. [6] - In terms of inventory, LME nickel inventory, SHFE inventory, and refined nickel social inventory all increased slightly last week. [6] - In the short term, the RKAB approval in 2025 provides raw material security, but new policy risks remain. Trade disputes affect market sentiment. Fundamentally, imported nickel remains at a high level, inventory is increasing, and Indonesian policies may affect supply but have not had an actual impact yet. Downstream stainless - steel production and inventory have marginally improved, and nickel prices will generally fluctuate within a range. [6] Group 3: Summaries by Directory 1. Week - on - Week Viewpoints and Strategies - Viewpoint: After considering supply, demand, and inventory factors, nickel prices will fluctuate within a range in the short term [6]. - Strategy: Conduct short - term trading on the SHFE nickel 2512 contract and sell out - of - the - money put options. Pay attention to changes in the mining end, stainless - steel production, trade disputes, and Indonesian exports in the future [6]. 2. Industrial Chain Structure - The nickel industrial chain includes nickel ore (laterite nickel ore, sulfide nickel ore), wet - process intermediates, nickel - iron, high - grade nickel matte, nickel sulfate, electrolytic nickel, and their downstream applications in stainless steel, batteries, electroplating, and alloys [8]. 3. Futures and Spot Markets - The report mentions the LME nickel premium and discount and the SHFE electrolytic nickel main - contract basis, but no specific analysis is provided [10]. 4. Supply Side Nickel Ore - In 2024, China's nickel ore imports decreased by 21.7% year - on - year to 36.5763 million tons due to significant nickel - iron production cuts. In August - September 2025, imports increased seasonally, reaching 6.3467 million and 6.1144 million tons respectively [18]. Nickel Pig Iron - In 2024, Indonesia's nickel - iron production was 1.5138 million tons, a 5.9% year - on - year increase. In September 2025, production was 156,500 tons, with a slight month - on - month increase. In 2024, domestic nickel - iron production was 296,400 tons, a 20.9% year - on - year decrease. In September 2025, production was 21,700 tons, with a slight month - on - month decrease and still at a low level [21]. - In August - September 2025, China's nickel - iron imports were 874,000 and 1.085 million tons respectively, showing a significant month - on - month increase. In September 2025, nickel - pig - iron inventory was 19,900 tons, remaining stable [25]. Refined Nickel - With the continuous release of electrowinning nickel capacity, pure - nickel supply expanded in 2024. In October 2025, domestic refined nickel production was 33,240 tons, a decline from a high level. In July - August 2025, the apparent consumption was 29,883.05 and 37,551.45 tons respectively [28]. - In September 2025, China's nickel imports were 2.786 million tons, at a high level, and exports were 170,000 tons, with a slight month - on - month decline [31]. 5. Intermediates Wet - Process Intermediates - In September 2025, Indonesia's MHP production was 41,600 tons, a slight month - on - month decline but still at a historical high [37]. High - Grade Nickel Matte - Indonesia's high - grade nickel matte production growth was relatively pressured this year. In 2024, production was 267,000 tons, an 8.54% year - on - year increase. In August - September 2025, production was 20,300 and 21,300 tons respectively. From the project planning perspective, there will be more planned intermediate - product capacities from 2025 - 2027 [43]. Nickel Sulfate - In September 2025, China's nickel sulfate production was 39,045.4 tons, a month - on - month increase. In August - September 2025, nickel sulfate imports were 30,292 and 29,533 tons respectively [47]. 6. Demand Side Stainless - Steel Demand - In 2024, the release of stainless - steel production capacity was relatively slow. The output of 43 stainless - steel sample enterprises was 38.2582 million tons, a 7.43% year - on - year increase. In September 2025, stainless - steel production was 3.4267 million tons, showing an increase after a decline from a high level. The latest total social inventory of stainless steel was 987,549 tons, with a slight month - on - month increase [52]. Cathode - Material Demand - In terms of power - battery structure, the market share of ternary batteries has shrunk to nearly 20%. Driven by the trade - in policy, the total terminal demand is expected to continue growing in 2025. In September 2025, the production of ternary cathode materials was 75,900 tons, continuing to rebound from a low level [59]. 7. Inventory Side - As of October 31, 2025, the social inventory of refined nickel was 48,746 tons, a slight increase from the previous week [64]. - As of November 5, 2025, LME nickel inventory was 252,750 tons, a slight month - on - month increase. As of November 6, 2025, SHFE inventory was 32,689 tons, a slight month - on - month increase [68].

Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Report's Core View - Due to supply constraints, it is expected that the aluminum price will maintain a rising or oscillatingly strong trend. The strategy is to continue taking long positions in the medium term, with the reference support range for Shanghai Aluminum 2601 being 21,000 - 21,200 yuan/ton [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly View and Strategy - **Macro**: In October, China's total goods trade imports and exports were 3.7 trillion yuan, a 0.1% increase. Exports were 2.17 trillion yuan, a 0.8% decrease, and imports were 1.53 trillion yuan, a 1.4% increase for the fifth consecutive month. The US government shutdown led to the non - release of the October non - farm payroll data. Economists expect a 60,000 decrease in non - farm employment and a rise in the unemployment rate to 4.5% [5]. - **Supply**: Bauxite mining in northern China has not resumed. Some alumina plants in the region have reduced their operations. A large alumina enterprise in Hebei shut down 2 roasting furnaces on the evening of October 28 and plans to resume gradually on October 31. Alumina inventory is continuously accumulating, while the operating rate and supply of electrolytic aluminum are relatively stable [5]. - **Demand**: Recent electrolytic aluminum consumption has been generally good. The automobile industry is relatively prosperous, and the power grid - related orders are expected to be released rapidly. Overall, domestic demand is expected to continue to improve [5]. - **Inventory**: Last week, LME aluminum futures inventory increased slightly, while domestic social inventory continued to decline slightly and is expected to continue to decrease [5]. - **View**: Supply disturbances have not changed the weak fundamentals of alumina. Due to supply constraints, the aluminum price is expected to maintain a rising or oscillatingly strong trend [5]. - **Strategy**: Continue taking long positions in the medium term, with the reference support range for Shanghai Aluminum 2601 being 21,000 - 21,200 yuan/ton [5]. 2. Spot and Futures Market - Graphs of domestic aluminum spot and futures prices, A00 aluminum ingot spot premium and discount, LME aluminum price trends, and China's aluminum ingot import profit are presented, but no specific analysis is provided [9][13]. 3. Supply and Inventory - **Bauxite**: In September 2025, China imported 1,588 million tons of bauxite, a 38.3% year - on - year increase. From January to September, the import volume was 15,731 million tons, a 32% year - on - year increase. In 2024, China imported 15,876.7 million tons of bauxite, a 12.3% year - on - year increase. Guinea and Australia are the main sources. In September 2025, China's bauxite production was 488.21 million tons, a 2.32% year - on - year decrease. From January to September, the cumulative production was 4,574.32 million tons, with a significant slowdown in production growth. Recent domestic bauxite port inventory has decreased [20][25]. - **Alumina**: In September 2025, China's alumina production was 799.9 million tons, an 8.7% year - on - year increase. From January to September, the cumulative production was 6,856.0 million tons, an 8.4% year - on - year increase. From January to September, China exported 200 million tons of alumina, a 61.8% year - on - year increase, with 25 million tons in September, an 82.2% year - on - year increase. As of September 2025, the domestic metallurgical alumina production capacity reached 11,032 million tons, an increase of 630 million tons from the end of last year. More new production capacity is expected to be put into operation from the end of 2025 to Q1 2026. In 2025, there was a large - scale production capacity release, and there are still many projects to be put into operation in 2026 and later. Overseas, there were approximately 500 million tons of new production capacity put into operation, and at least 870 million tons of new production capacity are expected in 2026 [34][35][38]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: As of September 2025, the domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity was 4,523.2 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 23.5 million tons; the operating capacity was 4,444.9 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 92 million tons; the capacity utilization rate was 99.41%, a year - on - year increase of 2.43%. In September 2025, the global primary aluminum production was 6.08 million tons, a 0.9% year - on - year increase. From January to September, the global primary aluminum production was 55.113 million tons. In September 2025, China's primary aluminum production was 3.81 million tons, a 1.8% year - on - year increase. From January to September, the cumulative production was 33.97 million tons, a 2.2% year - on - year increase. In September 2025, China imported 246,800 tons of primary aluminum, a 14.36% month - on - month increase and an 80.07% year - on - year increase. From January to September, the cumulative import volume was 1.9618 million tons. As of November 6, 2025, the LME futures inventory was 550,500 tons, and China's electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 607,000 tons [42][53][62]. 4. Primary Processing and End - Market - **Alloy Ingot**: In September 2025, the aluminum alloy production was 177,600 tons, a 17.1% year - on - year increase. From January to September, the cumulative production was 1.4116 million tons, a 15.9% year - on - year increase [68]. - **Aluminum Products**: In September 2025, China's aluminum product production was 590,000 tons, a 1.5% year - on - year decrease. From January to September, the cumulative production was 4.9768 million tons, the same as the previous year [71]. - **Aluminum Import and Export**: In September 2025, China imported 360,000 tons of unforged aluminum and aluminum products, a 35.4% year - on - year increase. From January to September, the cumulative import volume was 3.01 million tons, a 5.7% year - on - year increase. In September, the export volume was 520,000 tons, a 7.3% year - on - year decrease. From January to September, the cumulative export volume was 4.52 million tons, an 8.1% year - on - year decrease [78]. - **Downstream Demand**: The report presents graphs of global aluminum downstream demand structure, green demand forecast, global photovoltaic and wind power installation capacity forecast, global new energy vehicle sales forecast, China's real estate market situation, China's new energy vehicle production, and power engineering investment, but no specific analysis is provided [81][87][92]. 5. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet and Industrial Chain Structure - **Global Supply - Demand Balance**: The report provides global and Chinese electrolytic aluminum supply - demand balance tables from 2021 to 2027. In 2025, overseas alumina had 6.6 million tons of new production capacity (including restarted capacity), with 4 million tons of newly invested capacity. The net increase in production capacity in 2025 was 4.02 million tons. It is expected that in 2025, the global market will maintain a tight - balance situation, with a slight shortage overseas and a slight surplus in China [103][104][105]. - **Industrial Chain Structure**: No specific content is provided.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current supply of copper ore remains tight, with the copper concentrate processing fee TC at a deeply negative level. The market generally expects the final result of the 2026 copper concentrate long - term processing fee negotiation to be significantly lower than the 2025 benchmark price of $21.25 per dry ton, and it may approach zero, with individual negotiations possibly resulting in negative values. - In November, the number of smelters scheduled for maintenance decreased to 5, involving a rough smelting capacity of 1.5 million tons and an estimated impact on production of 48,000 tons. Due to the pressure on raw materials being transmitted to the domestic smelting sector, along with negative copper processing fees and falling by - product prices, smelter profits are significantly pressured, and it is expected that the electrolytic copper output in November will decline month - on - month. - Although the previous period was the traditional peak season, high copper prices have to some extent suppressed downstream purchasing willingness. However, the demand side has strong resilience, and terminal demands such as power grids and new energy provide marginal increments. As the issue of supply shortages becomes a consensus, the downstream's acceptance of high copper prices is gradually increasing, and the medium - to - long - term supply - demand fundamentals provide solid support for the price center. - The strategy is to continue to focus on medium - term long positions, with the medium - term reference support range for Shanghai copper 2601 being 83,500 - 84,000 yuan/ton [8][9]. 3. Summaries According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Week - ly Views and Strategies - **Strategy**: Focus on medium - term long positions, with the medium - term reference support range for Shanghai copper 2601 being 83,500 - 84,000 yuan/ton [8] - **Macro**: In October, China's total goods trade import and export value was 3.7 trillion yuan, a 0.1% increase. Exports were 2.17 trillion yuan, a 0.8% decrease, and imports were 1.53 trillion yuan, a 1.4% increase, with imports having increased for 5 consecutive months. The US government shutdown set a record for the longest duration, and many important economic indicators lacked official data. According to economists' estimates, if the number of non - agricultural employment in October decreased by 60,000, the unemployment rate would rise to 4.5% [9] - **Supply**: Copper ore supply is tight, and the copper concentrate processing fee TC is deeply negative. It is expected that the 2026 long - term processing fee will be much lower than that in 2025. In November, 5 smelters are scheduled for maintenance, affecting 48,000 tons of production. It is expected that November's electrolytic copper output will decline month - on - month [9] - **Demand**: High copper prices have suppressed downstream purchasing, but demand has resilience, and power grids and new energy provide marginal increments. The downstream's acceptance of high prices is increasing [9] - **Inventory**: LME copper futures inventory decreased slightly, while domestic social inventory slowly increased due to the suppression of high - price copper on downstream purchases [9] 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets No specific analysis content provided, only figure names such as "Domestic Futures and Spot Prices", "Shanghai Flat - water Copper Premiums and Discounts", "LME Copper 3 - Month Forward Price", and "Shanghai - London Ratio" are mentioned [14][17] 3.3 Supply and Inventory - **Global Copper Resource Distribution**: Global copper resources are mainly distributed in Chile, Peru, Australia, Russia, and Mexico. Chile has the largest copper reserves, accounting for 21.3%, while China's copper resources are relatively scarce, accounting for only 3% [23] - **Global Copper Capital Expenditure**: Long - term capital expenditure suppresses incremental supply. Old mines have declining grades and rising geopolitical risks, making stable production difficult. Optimistically, the global copper mine production increments in 2025, 2026, and 2027 are expected to be 560,000, 1.28 million, and 470,000 tons respectively, with corresponding growth rates of about 2.5%, 5.6%, and 1.9%. Under neutral conditions, the supply growth rates in 2025, 2026, and 2027 are about 2.0%, 3.0%, and 1.0% [24] - **Copper Concentrate**: As of November 7, 2025, the comprehensive TC price of 26% clean copper concentrate was - $42.00 per dry ton, and the comprehensive spot price was $2,859 per dry ton. The zero - order spot processing fee is far below the break - even point. In August 2025, the global copper concentrate output was 1.5328 million tons, and from January to August, it was 12.1509 million tons [29] - **Global Copper Production Distribution**: In 2023, major copper - producing countries included Chile, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Peru, etc. In 2024, the global copper mine production capacity reached 28.63 million tons, a 3.78% increase year - on - year, but the capacity utilization rate decreased from 82.20% in 2020 to 80.1% in 2024 [23][36] - **Copper Concentrate Imports and Inventory**: In September 2025, China's copper ore and concentrate imports were 2.587 million tons, a 0.1% year - on - year increase. From January to September, imports were 22.634 million tons, a 7.7% year - on - year increase. In the 45th week of 2025, the port inventory of imported copper concentrate in China was 498,000 tons [39] - **Global Copper Supply - Demand and China's Smelting Break - even**: The global copper concentrate supply - demand balance is expected to show different situations in different years. China's electrolytic copper production and import data in 2024 and 2025 are also provided [41][46] - **International and Domestic Copper Inventories**: As of November 6, 2025, the LME inventory was 134,000 tons, and the New York market copper inventory reached 369,400 tons. The domestic social inventory was 202,600 tons, and the SHFE inventory fluctuated at a low level [59][60][63] 3.4 Primary Processing and Terminal Markets - **Primary Processing Market**: In September 2025, China's copper product output was 2.232 million tons, a 5.9% year - on - year increase. From January to September, the cumulative output was 18.575 million tons, a 9.6% year - on - year increase. In September 2025, China imported 485,000 tons of unwrought copper and copper products, and from January to September, the cumulative imports were 4.019 million tons, a 1.7% year - on - year decrease. From January to September, the cumulative exports were 1.1428 million tons, a 10.9% year - on - year increase [69][73] - **Terminal Market - Power**: The national power grid project investment was 437.8 billion yuan, a 9.9% year - on - year increase [77] - **Terminal Market - Real Estate**: From January to September 2025, the national real estate development investment was 6.7706 trillion yuan, a 13.9% year - on - year decrease [81] - **Terminal Market - Automobile**: From January to September 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 24.333 million and 24.363 million vehicles respectively, a 13.3% and 12.9% year - on - year increase. New energy vehicle production and sales were 11.243 million and 11.228 million vehicles respectively, a 35.2% and 34.9% year - on - year increase, with a penetration rate of 46.1%. The total copper consumption of new energy vehicles and charging piles is expected to increase from 1.882 million tons in 2025 to 4.847 million tons in 2030 [85][88] - **Terminal Market - Home Appliances**: In September 2025, China's air - conditioner output was 18.095 million units, a 3.0% year - on - year decrease. From January to September, the cumulative output was 216.571 million units, a 4.4% year - on - year increase. In September 2025, China exported 366.563 million home appliances, and from January to September, the cumulative exports were 3.359991 billion units, a 0.8% year - on - year increase [92] - **Terminal Market - New Energy**: As of the end of September, the national solar power generation installed capacity was 1.13 billion kilowatts, a 45.7% year - on - year increase, and the wind power installed capacity was 580 million kilowatts, a 21.3% year - on - year increase [96] - **Global Copper Downstream Consumption and Green Demand Forecast**: The new energy demand for copper is expected to enter a stage of "high base * normal growth rate = high increment". It is estimated that in 2025, the green demand for copper (photovoltaic, wind power, new energy vehicles) will exceed the construction demand [100] 3.5 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet and Industrial Chain Structure - **Global Copper Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It is expected that the global copper supply will still be slightly in surplus in 2025 but will decrease significantly compared to 2024. It is expected to be slightly in short supply in 2026 and the shortage will widen in 2027. The domestic supply - demand is in a tight balance, and the actual consumption growth rate of China's electrolytic copper in 2025 is expected to be 1.91% [107] - **Industrial Chain Structure**: No specific analysis content provided.

期货交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1285号 华联期货生猪周报 二育减量明显 猪价僵持 20251109 蒋琴 交易咨询号：Z0014038 从业资格号：F3027808 0769-22110802 审核：萧勇辉，从业资格号：F03091536,交易咨询号：Z0019917 1 周度观点及策略 2 期现市场 3 产能 4 供给端 5 需求端 6 成本及利润 u 展望：政策面虽持续释放积极信号，但实际产能去化不及预期，市场情绪转弱。本轮期现货共振下跌的行情并非单一因素主导，而 是产能长期过剩、政策调控落地滞后与消费疲软的三重压力叠加所致，目前行业正面临短期价格承压与长期产能出清的关键博弈期。 当前生猪产能依旧过剩，下游需求端疲软，二育短期的入场行为对猪价仅能起到"缓冲作用" ，无法扭转全国生猪市场供增需弱的 格局，养殖端整体进入全面亏损状态，市场情绪偏弱，短期生猪现货行情或延续弱势震荡，期货盘面震荡下跌修复基差。中期来看， 年底天气转冷后，终端对大体重猪的需求会有所增加，同时，南方地区腌腊、灌肠等传统消费需求逐步启动，或对行情形成阶段性 提振。但近年来传统意义上的生猪消费旺季均未能兑现，今年旺季不旺或已 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - **Soda Ash**: Last week, soda ash production decreased by 10,700 tons week - on - week, the manufacturer's shipment rate dropped by 3.14%, and the upstream manufacturer's inventory increased by 12,200 tons. Some soda ash enterprises reduced their loads, and production slightly decreased. The inventory accumulation slowed down. Recently, the supply of soda ash has remained at a high level with narrow fluctuations. Although the enterprise profit has continued to shrink, there has been no significant production cut, and the supply pressure remains high. The daily melting volume of downstream glass has remained low, the improvement in soda ash demand is limited, and the manufacturer's inventory is difficult to deplete. The high supply has hit market confidence, and the futures market is under pressure and operating weakly. The 2601 contract is expected to run in the range of 1160 - 1280 [7]. - **Glass**: Last week, 4 coal - fired production lines were shut down, and 1 previously ignited production line started to produce glass. The weekly开工率 and weekly supply decreased. Affected by the news of the technological transformation and shutdown of production lines in the Shahe area, the market production and sales improved, and the manufacturer's inventory continued to decline. Currently, glass is dragged down by the weak real estate market, and the demand outlook is not optimistic. The market expects a reduction in supply. It is expected that there is still room for adjustment and repair in the industry's supply - demand relationship. However, the short - term peak - season consumption is lower than expected, the inventory remains high, and later the consumption will gradually enter the off - season, so the improvement in the supply - demand contradiction may be limited. The 2601 contract is expected to run in the range of 1050 - 1160 [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Views and Strategies - **Soda Ash** - **Inventory**: As of November 6, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.7142 million tons, including 814,600 tons of light soda ash and 899,600 tons of heavy soda ash. Compared with the same period last year, the inventory increased by 39,200 tons, a rise of 2.34%. The production and sales of enterprises were relatively balanced, and the inventory of some enterprises increased [7]. - **Supply**: As of November 6, 2025, the weekly domestic soda ash production was 74,690 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 10,700 tons, a decline of 1.41%. The production of light soda ash was 33,121 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5,700 tons, and the production of heavy soda ash was 41,480 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5,000 tons. Some enterprises reduced their loads, and the supply decreased slightly [7]. - **Demand**: As of November 6, 2025, the weekly shipment volume of Chinese soda ash enterprises was 73,390 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.14%. The overall shipment rate of soda ash was 98.36%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.65 percentage points. During the week, the soda ash enterprise equipment fluctuated slightly, the production and sales of enterprises were relatively balanced, the inventory of some enterprises increased slightly, and the overall shipment rate decreased slightly [7]. - **Glass** - **Inventory**: As of November 6, 2025, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 63.136 million weight boxes, a week - on - week decrease of 2.654 million weight boxes, a decline of 4.03%, and a year - on - year increase of 29.05%. The inventory days were 27.1 days, a decrease of 0.9 days compared with the previous period [8]. - **Supply**: From October 31 to November 6, 2025, the average operating rate of the float glass industry was 75.92%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.43 percentage points; the average capacity utilization rate was 80.42%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.2 percentage points. The national float glass production was 1.1261 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.25% and a year - on - year increase of 1.87% [8]. - **Profit**: From October 31 to November 6, 2025, according to the production cost calculation model of Longzhong Information, the weekly average profit of float glass using natural gas as fuel was - 172.70 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 15.00 yuan/ton; the weekly average profit of float glass using coal - made gas as fuel was 78.10 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 14.65 yuan/ton; the weekly average profit of float glass using petroleum coke as fuel was - 1.77 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 2.86 yuan/ton [8]. - **Demand**: As of October 31, 2025, the average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises were 10.8 days, a week - on - week increase of 4.0% and a year - on - year decrease of 16.1%. The deep - processing orders were divided this period. The average order days of enterprises in the north increased slightly, and the proportion of some engineering orders increased. In the south, most orders remained flat or even decreased in some cases, and the overall competition was still fierce [8]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Structure - **Soda Ash**: The upstream of the soda ash industry chain includes natural soda mines, raw salt, synthetic ammonia, raw salt, limestone, and ammonium chloride. The mid - stream is soda ash (light soda ash/heavy soda ash), and the downstream includes agricultural fertilizers, glass, and daily detergents [10]. - **Flat Glass**: The upstream of the flat glass industry chain includes raw materials such as quartz sand, limestone, soda ash, and auxiliary materials (clarifiers, color - mixing agents), as well as fuels like coal - made gas (24%), natural gas (40%), and petroleum coke (16%). The mid - stream is flat glass (float glass, other methods such as calendering), and the downstream includes deep - processed products such as tempered glass, laminated glass, hollow glass, and coated glass, which are mainly used in the real estate (75%), automotive (18%), and electronic and electrical (7%) industries [11]. 3.3 Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures and Spot Prices** - **Glass**: As of November 7, 2025, the closing price of the FG main contract was 1091, and the North China basis was 39 yuan/ton [15]. - **Soda Ash**: As of November 7, 2025, the closing price of the SA main contract was 1210, and the North China basis was 90 yuan/ton [18]. - **Contract Spread** - **Glass**: As of November 7, 2025, the FG1 - 5 spread closed at - 134 yuan/ton. - **Soda Ash**: As of November 7, 2025, the SA1 - 5 spread closed at - 84 yuan/ton [21]. 3.4 Inventory - **Glass**: As of November 6, 2025, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 63.136 million weight boxes, a week - on - week decrease of 2.654 million weight boxes, a decline of 4.03%, and a year - on - year increase of 29.05%. The inventory days were 27.1 days, a decrease of 0.9 days compared with the previous period. The inventory in major regions such as North China, East China, South China, and Central China decreased [24]. - **Soda Ash**: As of November 6, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.7142 million tons, including 814,600 tons of light soda ash and 899,600 tons of heavy soda ash. Compared with the same period last year, the inventory increased by 39,200 tons, a rise of 2.34%. The production and sales of enterprises were relatively balanced, and the inventory of some enterprises increased [33]. 3.5 Supply - Side - **Glass**: From October 31 to November 6, 2025, the average operating rate of the float glass industry was 75.92%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.43 percentage points; the average capacity utilization rate was 80.42%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.2 percentage points. The national float glass production was 1.1261 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.25% and a year - on - year increase of 1.87% [37]. - **Soda Ash**: As of November 6, 2025, the weekly domestic soda ash production was 74,690 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 10,700 tons, a decline of 1.41%. The production of light soda ash was 33,121 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5,700 tons, and the production of heavy soda ash was 41,480 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5,000 tons. Some enterprises reduced their loads, and the supply decreased slightly. As of November 6, 2025, the theoretical profit of ammonia - soda process soda ash in China was - 43.50 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1.80 yuan/ton; the theoretical profit of dual - ton soda ash in the combined - soda process was - 174 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 9 yuan/ton [47][50]. 3.6 Demand - Side - **Glass**: As of October 31, 2025, the average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises were 10.8 days, a week - on - week increase of 4.0% and a year - on - year decrease of 16.1%. The deep - processing orders were divided this period. The average order days of enterprises in the north increased slightly, and the proportion of some engineering orders increased. In the south, most orders remained flat or even decreased in some cases, and the overall competition was still fierce [54]. - **Soda Ash**: As of November 6, 2025, the weekly shipment volume of Chinese soda ash enterprises was 73,390 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.14%. The overall shipment rate of soda ash was 98.36%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.65 percentage points. The enterprise production and sales were relatively balanced, the inventory of some enterprises increased slightly, and the overall shipment rate decreased slightly [65].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Market Performance**: From October 31 to November 7, 2025, the spot price of zinc oscillated upward, with the benchmark spot price reaching 22,650 yuan/ton on November 7, a 1.66% increase from October 30. In the futures market, the main zinc contract also trended upward, closing at 22,720 yuan/ton with a weekly gain of 1.63%. The current open interest of the main - month contract is around 112,500 lots [8]. - **Macro - environment**: Sino - US economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur led to a series of agreements on tariffs and export controls, showing signs of trade friction mitigation. The Fed's interest - rate cut expectation in December is uncertain, pending inflation and employment data after the US government reopens. The "15th Five - Year Plan" proposal brings new development opportunities to the new energy and new materials sectors [8]. - **Supply**: Limited domestic zinc concentrate increments have caused a decline in spot processing fees. There is an increasing expectation of production cuts and shutdowns in November. Some northern mines have actively controlled production after completing their annual plans, leading to a temporary tightness in zinc ore supply and concerns about a contraction in refined zinc output [8]. - **Demand**: Seasonal weakness in demand persists. With the arrival of the construction off - season in the north, the operating rates of downstream industries such as galvanizing and zinc die - casting may further decline, and the pattern of spot discounts is difficult to reverse. Specifically, the estimated operating rate of zinc oxide manufacturers remains stable at about 51%, a Tianjin zinc oxide plant affected by environmental protection controls is expected to resume production next week; the estimated operating rate of the zinc alloy industry next week is 54%, with downstream raw material purchases only meeting rigid demand and new orders at the beginning of next month falling short of expectations; the operating rate of galvanized sheets is expected to continue to recover to about 63% [8]. - **Inventory**: Overall inventory is at a low level. As of November 6, LME zinc delivery inventory was reported at 34,100 tons, and SHFE inventory was 69,300 tons, showing a differentiated inventory level [8]. - **Summary**: The macro - sentiment is cautiously recovering. Overseas zinc ingots remain in short supply, and the export window will remain open in November. The cost support from processing fees and weak downstream demand create a tug - of - war for zinc prices, resulting in a wide - range oscillating trend [8]. - **Strategy**: Conduct range trading for the zn2601 contract, with a reference operating range of 21,000 - 23,000 yuan/ton, or buy out - of - the - money call options [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Week - on - Week View and Strategy - **Hot News**: US ADP data showed that private - sector employment increased by 42,000 in October, far exceeding the market expectation of 22,000 and the largest increase since July 2025. However, the September data was revised downward to a decrease of 32,000. This strong data alleviated market concerns about the weak labor market. This week, both the smelting and downstream sectors were affected. Tight raw materials and falling processing fees put pressure on many smelting enterprises, which have started production cuts. Northern downstream enterprises' operations and shipments were affected by environmental protection controls, leading to tightened raw material purchases. The spot market continued with a pattern of small - volume rigid - demand transactions. Traders actively bought export - eligible zinc ingot sources, driving up the premiums of some zinc ingot brands in Shanghai and Tianjin. Overseas, LME zinc inventory hit a new low again. Under the dominance of long - position funds, domestic and international zinc prices trended strongly this week. Attention should be paid to the subsequent rhythm of zinc ingot exports and overseas warehousing [7]. - **Influence Factor Prediction**: The supply expectation is fluctuating (neutral), downstream demand is weak (bearish), inventory is differentiated (neutral), export expectation is good (bullish), market sentiment has no impact (neutral), cost - profit has no impact (bullish), and the macro - environment has no impact (neutral). Overall, the market is expected to oscillate [9]. 3.2. Industrial Chain Structure The zinc industry chain includes zinc ore, scrap zinc, refined zinc (including fire - refined zinc and electrolytic zinc), and downstream products such as zinc die - casting alloys, zinc - based alloys, galvanized products, zinc oxide, etc. Downstream applications cover various fields such as toys, hardware, construction, and automotive [11]. 3.3. Term Market The report presents multiple charts related to futures and spot prices, including active - contract futures closing prices, settlement prices, LME 3 - month zinc futures closing prices, refined zinc prices, and London zinc ingot spot prices, with data sources from WIND and the Hualian Futures Research Institute [15][19][25][33]. 3.4. Inventory The report shows charts of inventory data, including SHFE inventory, LME inventory, zinc finished - product inventory, zinc spot inventory, zinc ore port inventory, and zinc ore raw - material inventory days, with data sources from Steel Union Data and the Hualian Futures Research Institute [35][40][46]. 3.5. Supply The supply - side content includes charts of global and domestic zinc ore production, zinc ore imports, zinc ore prices, zinc concentrate processing fees, refined zinc prices, refined zinc operating rates, global and Chinese refined zinc production, and refined zinc imports and exports, with data sources from Steel Union Data and the Hualian Futures Research Institute [50][53][56][59][65][70]. 3.6. Demand - **Downstream Product Data**: The report provides production and operating - rate data for downstream products such as galvanized sheets, zinc alloys, and zinc oxide from June 2024 to February 2025, as well as charts of consumption structure, zinc ingot apparent and actual consumption, galvanized sheet production and operating rates, zinc alloy production and operating rates, zinc oxide operating rates and prices, and terminal - demand data for real estate, home appliances, and the automotive industry, with data sources from Steel Union Data and the Hualian Futures Research Institute [74][75][80][84][90][94][99]. - **2025 Supply - Demand Balance**: The report presents the supply - demand balance data for 2025, including production, imports, exports, net imports, total supply, apparent consumption, ending inventory, inventory changes, total demand, and supply - demand balance for each month [113]. 3.7. Others - **Price and Ratio**: The report includes charts of the Shanghai - London price ratio, zinc ingot main - contract basis, sulfuric acid prices, and zinc alloy prices, with data sources from Steel Union Data and the Hualian Futures Research Institute [104][108].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Gold is expected to fluctuate, and there is still a probability of filling the previous gap. The medium - and long - term positive logic for gold remains, including potential Fed rate cuts, a weakening dollar, and central bank gold purchases due to global political and economic instability. It is recommended to hold the remaining long positions in gold medium - term and set stop - profits. For options, wait for opportunities to buy call options again [6]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental View - **Price Movement**: Since 2025, the price of the London gold and Shanghai gold indexes has increased by 51.55% and 49.17% respectively. Last week, they decreased by - 0.64% and - 0.07% respectively [4][17]. - **Inflation**: In June 2022, the CPI reached a high of 9.1% and then declined. The PCE also peaked in June 2022. Core CPI and core PCE showed a downward trend. Since February 2024, the CPI rebounded, and the decline of core inflation slowed or even reversed. In August, the PCE increased to 2.74% year - on - year, and the core PCE to 2.91%. In September, the US CPI inflation rose slightly, while the core CPI fell slightly and was lower than expected [4][20]. - **Interest Rates**: From mid - to late October 2023, the US medium - term Treasury bond yields declined until January this year. Since February 2024, they have rebounded, then fluctuated and declined near last year's high. Since September, they have fallen below the 2024 low and reached a new low [4][24]. - **Supply and Demand**: In 2024, the global gold supply - demand balance became less loose, mainly due to a large increase in investment demand. In China, gold supply increased slightly year - on - year, and demand also recovered, mainly due to a significant increase in investment demand. The central bank's gold purchases remained above 1000 tons. The domestic gold supply - demand is in a tight balance, mainly due to a significant increase in gold bars and coins. In the first half of 2025, investment demand increased significantly [4]. - **US Economy**: In August 2025, the US added 22,000 jobs, far lower than the market expectation of 70,000, reaching the lowest level since October last year. In August 2025, the average hourly wage of US non - farm employees increased by 0.4%, up 0.1% from the previous month. The unemployment rate in July remained at 4.3%. The non - farm employment data in August 2025 continued to be significantly weaker than expected [4][33]. 3.2 Strategy View and Outlook - **Outlook**: Last Friday, the main gold futures contract rebounded after hitting a low, with support at the 30 - day moving average. Gold is expected to fluctuate, and there is a chance to fill the previous gap. After the sharp rise in gold due to the Fed rate - cut expectations, the US government shutdown, and tariff hikes since the end of August, on the evening of October 21, the international gold price dropped significantly. The reasons are the decline in risk - aversion sentiment and profit - taking triggered by the overbought technical condition. However, the medium - and long - term positive factors for gold still exist [6]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold the remaining long positions in gold medium - term and set stop - profits. Wait for opportunities to buy call options [6]. 3.3 Industry Chain Structure (Periodic and Spot Markets) - Gold prices stopped falling last week. Since 2025, the London gold and Shanghai gold indexes have increased by 51.55% and 49.17% respectively, and last week they decreased by - 0.64% and - 0.07% respectively [15][17]. 3.4 Gold Supply and Demand - **Global and Domestic Supply - Demand Balance**: When the gold supply - demand is in a tight balance, it is conducive to rising gold prices; when it is in a weak balance, the impact on gold prices is small. In 2024, the global gold supply - demand became less loose, and in China, the supply increased slightly year - on - year while demand recovered, mainly due to increased investment demand [4][37]. - **Central Bank Gold Purchases**: In the second quarter of 2025, global central bank gold purchases continued to decline to 166.46 tons from 248.57 tons in the first quarter. From November 2022 to April 2024, the People's Bank of China continuously bought gold. After six consecutive months without purchases, it bought gold from November 2024 to September 2025, with a total purchase of 44.16 tons since 2024 [41]. - **ETF Demand**: In 2023, the gold holdings of ETFs decreased by 113.69 tons, and in 2024, they decreased by 28.46 tons. As of November 5, last week, gold ETFs increased their holdings by 1.55 tons, and in 2025, the holdings increased by 254.68 tons [45]. 3.5 Exchange Rate and Dollar Index - The domestic gold market has a slight premium over the international market. The report also presents data on the RMB exchange rate, the dollar index, and the exchange rates between the dollar and other currencies [69]. 3.6 Gold - Silver - Oil Ratio - The report provides data on the gold - silver ratio and the gold - oil ratio [73][75].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Market Performance**: From October 31 to November 7, 2025, the spot price of industrial silicon fluctuated upward, with the benchmark product at 9,092 yuan/ton on November 7, almost unchanged from 9,087 yuan/ton on October 31. In the futures market, the main contract of industrial silicon rose, with the latest transaction price at 9,220 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 1.32%. The open interest of the main contract was about 268,300 lots [6]. - **Supply**: After the end of the wet - season, most manufacturers in the southwest main production areas reduced or halted production, leading to a significant decline in output. The operating rate in the northwest decreased slightly, and overall market supply decreased compared to the previous week [6]. - **Demand**: The polysilicon market is in a game between "weak reality" and "strong expectation". High inventory and weak demand suppress the spot price, and leading enterprises cut production in November, reducing the demand for industrial silicon. The organic silicon DMC plants in Jiangxi and Yunnan have gradually resumed operation, increasing the demand for industrial silicon. The output of aluminum rods decreased this week, and the capacity utilization rate rebounded, with demand for industrial silicon remaining relatively stable. Export demand decreased in September [6]. - **Cost, Profit and Inventory**: The production cost of industrial silicon increased this week due to a slight increase in petroleum coke prices, and the prices of silica and electrodes in the southwest were basically stable. The electricity price in the southwest will rise next week, further increasing production costs. The profit of industrial silicon decreased slightly due to increased costs. The industry inventory is at a relatively high level, and with most southwest manufacturers halting production and low market prices, manufacturers are not willing to sell, resulting in little change in inventory. As of November 6, the inventory in the industrial silicon futures delivery warehouse was about 231,000 tons [6]. - **Outlook**: Although the operating rate of industrial silicon has decreased, due to the previous increase in the northwest, buyers' purchasing mentality is not active, and most purchase on - demand. It is expected that the short - term market price of industrial silicon will fluctuate slightly [6]. - **Strategy**: Consider going long on si2601 at low prices, with an expected operating range of 8,500 - 10,500 yuan/ton; or sell out - of - the - money call options; or adopt a reverse arbitrage strategy between industrial silicon and polysilicon [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Views and Hot News - **Week - to - Week Views**: Analyzed market performance, supply, demand, cost, profit, inventory, and provided outlook and trading strategies as mentioned above [6]. - **Hot News**: A polysilicon restructuring "consortium" platform is being planned, with a proposed fund of about 70 billion yuan, to be acquired in a "debt - assumption" way. TBEA denied the rumor of its polysilicon capacity being acquired. Relevant policies on new - energy power consumption and the electronic information manufacturing industry's growth plan were introduced [7]. 3.2 Industry Pattern - **Industrial Chain**: The industrial silicon industry chain includes raw materials such as petroleum coke, charcoal, etc., and downstream products such as organic silicon, polysilicon, and aluminum alloys, which are widely used in electronics, construction, and other fields [11]. 3.3 Futures and Spot Markets - **Spot Price and Basis**: Provided price trends and basis data of different grades and regions of industrial silicon, including 553 and 421 grades in various ports and regions [13][24]. - **Futures Contracts**: Showed the closing and settlement prices of continuous and active contracts of industrial silicon [33]. 3.4 Inventory - Presented the inventory data of the industrial silicon industry, including factory inventory, market inventory, and futures inventory [47]. 3.5 Cost and Profit - **Profit and Cost**: Displayed the comprehensive profit and cost of industrial silicon [55]. - **Electricity Price**: Showed the electricity prices in main and non - main production areas [62][76]. - **Other Raw Materials**: Presented the prices of silica, petroleum coke, electrodes, and silicon coal [90][95]. 3.6 Supply - **Output**: Showed the weekly and monthly output, operating rate, and monthly capacity of industrial silicon. There are also plans for new production capacity in multiple regions, with a total of 1.88 million tons of new capacity planned [108][115]. 3.7 Demand - **Consumption Overview**: Analyzed the consumption structure and quantity of industrial silicon in different fields such as alloys, polysilicon, etc. [118]. - **Polysilicon**: Showed the production, price, inventory, and cost of polysilicon [124][129]. - **Organic Silicon**: Presented the price, production, cost, and profit of organic silicon [132][137]. - **Aluminum Rods**: Showed the production, inventory, and price of aluminum rods, as well as the operating rate and production of aluminum alloys [142][149]. - **Solar/PV**: Displayed the cumulative production and price of solar cells [164]. 3.8 Import and Export - **Industrial Silicon**: Showed the import and export volume of industrial silicon [173]. - **Polysilicon**: Presented the import and export volume of polysilicon [178].