期货交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1285号 华联期货铂钯周报 地缘风险升温，铂钯双双大涨 20260125 作者：曾可 交易咨询号：Z0022773 从业资格号：F03118676 0769-22116880 审核：段福林，从业资格号:F3048935，交易咨询号：Z0015600 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 ◆ 铂钯走势：上周五铂钯盘面异动，外盘现货铂金大涨，带动内盘铂钯价格周五跳空上涨，铂金相对强势，铂金主力合约收 685.9元，收涨10.39%；钯金主力合约收497.95元，收涨3.98%。外盘现货铂金于周六凌晨收报2704.3再创历史新高；外盘 现货钯金周六凌晨收报2022.95。内盘铂金和钯金周度涨幅分别为12.4%和6.1%。 ◆ 宏观面：美国1月17日当周初请失业救济人数20万人，低于预期值20.9万人。续请失业金人数在上周降至185万人，低于预 期值189万人，为 ...

交易咨询号：Z0022773 从业资格号：F03118676 0769-22116880 审核：段福林，从业资格号:F3048935，交易咨询号：Z0015600 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 期货交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1285号 华联期货白银周报 避险情绪升温，伦敦银突破1 0 0整数关口 20260125 作者：曾可 周度观点 ◆ 白银走势：上周白银高位震荡后于周五再创历史新高，伦敦银于周六凌晨突破100美元/盎司整数关口，最终收报103.341； 受外盘驱动，沪银主力合约将新高刷新至25838元/千克。伦敦银和沪银周度涨幅分别为14.7%和11%，2025年累计涨幅分别 为148%和129%。 ◆ 美国经济：美国1月17日当周初请失业救济人数20万人，低于预期值20.9万人。续请失业金人数在上周降至185万人，低于 预期值189万人，为11月以来的最低水平，劳动力市场有所转暖。美国三季度GDP终值季环比增长4.4%，为两年以来最快增 速，三季度GDP增长稳健。 ◆ 通胀：美国11月整体PCE物 ...

请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自己公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 华联期货工业硅、多晶硅周报 静待新政窗口期 20260125 作者：陈小国 0769-22116880 从业资格号：F03100622 期货交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1285号 交易咨询号：Z0021111 审核：段福林，从业资格号:F3048935，交易咨询号：Z0015600 2 行业格局 3 期现市场 4 库存 1 周度观点及热点资讯 8 进出口 5 成本利润 6 供给 7 需求 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自己公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自己公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 周度观点及热点资讯 热点资讯 多晶硅周度观点 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自己公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 u 行情回顾：本周（2026.1.16-2026.1.23）多晶硅现货价 ...

期货交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1285号 华联期货宏观周报 2025年G D P增长5 % 新旧产业分化凸显 20260125 作者：石舒宇 0769-22116880 从业资格号：F03117664 交易咨询号：Z0022772 审核：段福林，从业资格号:F3048935，交易咨询号：Z0015600 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 周度观点及策略 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 周度观点 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 • 2025年全年国内GDP达1401879亿元，按不变价格计算同比增长5.0%，顺利完成全年增长目标，经济总量迈过140万亿元关口。 季度增速呈"前高后稳"走势，一季度至四季 ...

期货交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1285号 华联期货聚烯烃周报 化工品市场情绪较好，价格重心上移 20260125 萧勇辉 交易咨询号：Z0019917 从业资格号：F03091536 0769-22110802 审核：段福林，从业资格号:F3048935，交易咨询号：Z0015600 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 周度观点及策略 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 基本面概述 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 ◆ 库存：据隆众资讯统计：本周，中国聚乙烯生产企业样本库存量预计：32万吨左右，库存预计维持 跌势，主因临近月底，生产企业有一定出货压力，预计维持积极去库；中国聚丙烯生产企业库存量 预计：44万吨左右，较本期上涨。 ◆ 供应：据隆众资讯统计：本周，茂名石化、上海石化、中化泉州等装置计划重启，新增大庆石化、 扬子石化计划 ...

期货交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1285号 华联期货原油周报 地缘反复 短线走强 20250125 黄桂仁 0769-22112875 从业资格号：F3032275 交易咨询号：Z0014527 审核：段福林 从业资格号：F3048935 交易咨询号：Z0015600 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 周度观点及策略 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 周度观点 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 供应：欧佩克1月报显示， 12月份OPEC+原油总产量4283.1万桶/日，环比减少23.8万桶/日。其中欧佩克原油产量2856.4万桶/日， 环比增加10.5万桶/日。沙特原油产量1007.8万桶/日，环比增加2 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report 2.1 Soda Ash - Last week, soda ash plants operated stably, production continued to rise, demand remained weak and stable, and manufacturers' inventories continued to accumulate. With sufficient soda ash production capacity, supply is expected to increase after plant overhauls end, while terminal demand remains weak, limiting price rebound space. The 2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1150 - 1280 [8]. 2.2 Glass - Last week, there was no glass production line water - release or ignition, and a previously ignited production line started producing glass, with a slight increase in daily melting volume. Market production and sales were fair, and enterprise inventories continued to decline. Some glass production lines have cold - repair plans. After supply tightens, market production and sales have improved, and high - level inventories have decreased to relieve pressure, but they are still at a high level compared to the same period. In the short term, it will continue to fluctuate at a low level. The 2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1070 - 1180 [11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Views and Strategies 3.1.1 Soda Ash - **Inventory**: As of January 15, 2026, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.575 million tons, including 837,000 tons of light soda ash and 738,000 tons of heavy soda ash. Compared with 1.4311 million tons in the same period last year, it increased by 14,390 tons, a rise of 10.06%. Enterprises mainly delivered previous orders, and inventory increased slightly [8]. - **Supply**: As of January 15, 2026, the weekly domestic soda ash production was 775,300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 21,700 tons, a rise of 2.88%. Among them, the production of light soda ash was 361,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 12,400 tons, and the production of heavy soda ash was 413,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 9,300 tons. Most enterprise equipment operated stably, with few overhaul expectations, and combined with the increase in new production capacity, supply remained high [8]. - **Demand**: As of January 15, 2026, the weekly shipment volume of Chinese soda ash enterprises was 773,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 31.20%; the overall shipment rate of soda ash was 99.70%, a week - on - week increase of 21.52 percentage points. Some enterprises delivered orders during the week, overall production and sales were basically balanced, inventory increased slightly, and the overall shipment rate increased [8]. 3.1.2 Glass - **Inventory**: As of January 15, 2026, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 53.013 million heavy boxes, a week - on - week decrease of 2.505 million heavy boxes, a decrease of 4.51%, and a year - on - year increase of 20.89%. The inventory days were 23 days, a decrease of 1.1 days from the previous period [11]. - **Supply**: From January 9 - 15, 2026, the average operating rate of the float glass industry was 71.38%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.58 percentage points; the average capacity utilization rate of the float glass industry was 75.14%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.49 percentage points. The national float glass production was 1.0523 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.65% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.28% [11]. - **Profit**: From January 9 - 15, 2026, according to the production cost calculation model of Longzhong Information, the weekly average profit of float glass using natural gas as fuel was - 164.40 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 22.00 yuan/ton; the weekly average profit of float glass using coal - made gas as fuel was - 69.01 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 4.82 yuan/ton; the weekly average profit of float glass using petroleum coke as fuel was 3.93 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 9.71 yuan/ton [11]. - **Demand**: As of January 15, 2026, the average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises was 9.3 days, a week - on - week increase of 7.9% and a year - on - year increase of 86.4%. As the Spring Festival approaches, the deep - processing order trends in the north and south regions are differentiated. The executable days of orders in the south have slightly increased, and some orders can be maintained for more than 20 days; orders in the north and central regions have declined [11]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Structure 3.2.1 Soda Ash Industrial Chain - **Upstream**: Natural soda mines, raw salt, synthetic ammonia, raw salt, limestone, ammonium chloride - **Mid - stream**: Soda ash (light soda ash/heavy soda ash) - **Downstream**: Agricultural fertilizers, glass, daily detergents [14] 3.2.2 Flat Glass Industrial Chain - **Upstream**: Auxiliary materials (clarifiers, colorants), quartz sand, limestone, soda ash; fuels include coal - made gas (24%), natural gas (40%), petroleum coke (16%) - **Mid - stream**: Float glass, other (such as calendering method), tempered glass, laminated glass, hollow glass, coated glass - **Downstream**: Real estate (75%), automobile (18%), electronic appliances (7%) [16] 3.3 Futures and Spot Market 3.3.1 Glass - As of January 16, 2026, the closing price of the FG main contract was 1103, and the closing price of the North China basis was - 83 yuan/ton. The FG5 - 9 spread closed at - 106 yuan/ton [23][33]. 3.3.2 Soda Ash - As of January 16, 2026, the closing price of the SA main contract was 1192, and the closing price of the North China basis was 58 yuan/ton. The SA5 - 9 spread closed at - 67 yuan/ton [28][33]. 3.4 Inventory 3.4.1 Glass - As of January 15, 2026, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 53.013 million heavy boxes, a week - on - week decrease of 2.505 million heavy boxes, a decrease of 4.51%, and a year - on - year increase of 20.89%. The inventory days were 23 days, a decrease of 1.1 days from the previous period. Inventories in North China decreased by 10.27% week - on - week, in East China by 2.07%, in South China by 3.80%, and in Central China by 10.43% [37][43][45]. 3.4.2 Soda Ash - As of January 15, 2026, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.575 million tons, including 837,000 tons of light soda ash and 738,000 tons of heavy soda ash. Compared with 1.4311 million tons in the same period last year, it increased by 14,390 tons, a rise of 10.06%. Enterprises mainly delivered previous orders, and inventory increased slightly [50]. 3.5 Supply Side 3.5.1 Glass - From January 9 - 15, 2026, the average operating rate of the float glass industry was 71.38%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.58 percentage points; the average capacity utilization rate of the float glass industry was 75.14%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.49 percentage points. The national float glass production was 1.0523 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.65% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.28%. The weekly average profit of float glass using natural gas as fuel increased by 22 yuan/ton week - on - week, that using coal - made gas increased by 4.82 yuan/ton, and that using petroleum coke increased by 9.71 yuan/ton [56][58]. 3.5.2 Soda Ash - As of January 15, 2026, the weekly domestic soda ash production was 775,300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 21,700 tons, a rise of 2.88%. Among them, the production of light soda ash was 361,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 12,400 tons, and the production of heavy soda ash was 413,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 9,300 tons. As of January 15, 2026, the theoretical profit of soda ash produced by the ammonia - soda process in China was - 96.3 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 66.46%; the theoretical profit (per double - ton) of soda ash produced by the combined - soda process was - 44 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 108% [65][66]. 3.6 Demand Side 3.6.1 Glass - As of January 15, 2026, the average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises was 9.3 days, a week - on - week increase of 7.9% and a year - on - year increase of 86.4%. As the Spring Festival approaches, the deep - processing order trends in the north and south regions are differentiated. The executable days of orders in the south have slightly increased, and some orders can be maintained for more than 20 days; orders in the north and central regions have declined [71]. 3.6.2 Soda Ash - As of January 15, 2026, the weekly shipment volume of Chinese soda ash enterprises was 773,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 31.20%; the overall shipment rate of soda ash was 99.70%, a week - on - week increase of 21.52 percentage points. Some enterprises delivered orders during the week, overall production and sales were basically balanced, inventory increased slightly, and the overall shipment rate increased [84].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the report industry investment rating. Core View of the Report The short - term market may experience wide - range fluctuations, but the medium - term upward logic of stock index remains unchanged. After a sharp rise, the short - term market may have large - scale fluctuations. Heavy - position profit - takers are advised to reduce positions on last Tuesday and Wednesday, then cover positions on dips or conduct intraday short - term trading. The spring market long - position window has opened, and the market will maintain an oscillating upward pattern. The mid - term view of being bullish on the stock index remains unchanged under the continuous increase of margin trading funds and the stabilization of the third - quarter report performance [16]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly View and Strategy - **Fundamental View**: Last week, the market rose first and then fell. The performance of the four major indexes was different, with small and medium - cap indexes rising and large - cap indexes falling. The growth and cyclical style indexes continued to rise, while the financial, consumer, and stable style indexes declined. In the Shenwan industry, TMT and cyclical sectors such as computer, electronics, non - ferrous metals, and media led the rise, while sectors such as military industry, real estate, agriculture, and coal led the decline. In December 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 50.1%, up 0.9 percentage points from the previous month; the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.2%, up 0.7 percentage points from the previous month. The supply and demand sides of the manufacturing PMI continued to recover. The A - share performance showed signs of stabilization in the first quarter, declined in the second quarter, and continued to stabilize and recover in the third quarter [7][10]. - **Strategy View and Outlook**: The short - term market may experience wide - range fluctuations, but the medium - term upward logic of the stock index remains unchanged. It is recommended that heavy - position profit - takers reduce positions and then cover positions on dips or conduct intraday short - term trading. The spring market long - position window has opened, and the market will maintain an oscillating upward pattern. The mid - term view of being bullish on the stock index remains unchanged. In operation, long - term mid - line positions can be held, and short - term long positions should set stop - profit levels. Call options can be held with short - term stop - profit levels set [16]. 2. Index Industry Trend Review - Last week, the market rose first and then fell. The performance of the four major indexes was different, with small and medium - cap indexes rising and large - cap indexes falling. The growth and cyclical style indexes continued to rise, while the financial, consumer, and stable style indexes declined. In the Shenwan industry, TMT and cyclical sectors such as computer, electronics, non - ferrous metals, and media led the rise, while sectors such as military industry, real estate, agriculture, and coal led the decline [22][25]. 3. Main Contract and Basis Trend - Among the four major indexes, IC and IM continued to rise, while IH and IF adjusted. In terms of basis, the quarterly main contract basis of IM returned to a reasonable level. In terms of arbitrage among main contracts, IC/IF and IC/IH oscillated upwards, IH/IF oscillated, IM/IF and IM/IH oscillated upwards, and IM/IC continued to decline [32][36]. 4. Policy and Economy - **Economic Data**: In December 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 50.1%, up 0.9 percentage points from the previous month; the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.2%, up 0.7 percentage points from the previous month. The supply and demand sides of the manufacturing PMI continued to recover. PPI has shown different trends since 2023. In November 2025, industrial enterprise revenue continued to decline to 1.6%, and inventory continued to rise to 4.6%. The growth rate of medium - and long - term credit has been falling since May 2023, reaching 5.89% in November 2025 [42][45][53]. - **Policy**: The Politburo set the tone for the real estate market to stop falling and stabilize and boost the capital market. The State Council issued the New Nine - Point Plan to strengthen investor returns. The central bank created two new monetary policy tools. The implementation plan for promoting the entry of medium - and long - term funds into the market was officially released, which is expected to add 800 billion yuan of long - term funds to the A - share market annually [10]. 5. Revenue and Net Profit of Each Index - The performance of A - shares showed signs of stabilization in the first quarter, declined in the second quarter, and continued to stabilize and recover in the third quarter. In the third quarter of 2025, the performance of the four major indexes rebounded again [79][83]. 6. Valuation - The Shanghai Composite Index's valuation is 17.0155, with an upper - limit value of 15.68, at the 92.32 percentile since 2010, indicating a high valuation. The ChiNext's valuation is relatively low [94]. 7. Fed Interest Rate No information provided on the Fed interest rate. 8. Capital Flows - **Margin Trading**: In 2024, the net inflow was 274.8 billion yuan; in 2025, it was 670 billion yuan; as of January 15, 2026, the net inflow was 177.1 billion yuan, with a large net inflow of 98.1 billion yuan in the first five trading days. - **ETF**: From April 7, 2025, to January 16, 2026, the ETF scale increased by 71.8 billion yuan, 137.1 billion yuan less than the previous week. As of January 16, 2026, the ETF funds had a small net outflow of 138.3 billion yuan. - **Private Securities Investment Funds**: The scale increased by 1.8253 trillion yuan in the first 11 months of 2025, with a significant increase of 1.040028 trillion yuan in October, and the current total scale is 7.0076 trillion yuan. The newly registered scale in the first 11 months of 2025 was 433.7 billion yuan. - **Insurance Funds**: In the third quarter of 2025, the market value of A - shares held by insurance funds increased by 552.4 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 18.00%. In the first three quarters of 2025, the market value of A - shares held by insurance funds increased by 1.193 trillion yuan, and after deducting the scale increase, it increased by 758.4 billion yuan. - **Newly Established Funds**: As of September 30, 2025, the newly established stock - type fund shares were 323.3 billion, of which 137 billion were in the third quarter; the newly established hybrid - type fund shares were 103.6 billion, of which 53 billion were in the third quarter. In 2025, index - type funds had a net inflow of 104.9 billion yuan, while active equity - type funds had a net outflow of 444.9 billion yuan, and equity - type funds had a net outflow of 340 billion yuan [13][103][105]. 9. Technical Analysis No information provided on technical analysis other than the historical price charts of the four major indexes.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, Shanghai Tin prices broke through significantly at high levels and then fell sharply. On January 16, 2026, the spot price of Mysteel's comprehensive 1 tin was 413,500 yuan/ton, with large price fluctuations and significant changes in the basis. - In November, refined tin production was 15,490 tons, returning to normal both month - on - month and year - on - year. From January to October, the domestic tin ore production was 61,800 tons, with a slight year - on - year increase, and domestic tin ore supply remained stable. Myanmar's repeated progress in mine resumption affected the price range, and Indonesia's exports decreased in December. - In November, the demand growth of integrated circuits, automobiles, and PVC remained strong, while the demand in traditional sectors such as computers and some white goods slowed down. It is expected that in December, the demand in emerging sectors will maintain resilience, and the demand in some traditional sectors will be adjusted. In 2025, China's foreign trade imports and exports reached 45.47 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.8%, maintaining growth for 9 consecutive years. China's automobile production and sales both exceeded 34 million units in 2025, reaching a new high and ranking first globally for 17 consecutive years. The domestic economy is resilient, and the prosperity of the new energy and semiconductor industries is rising. Overseas uncertainties remain high, and there is still a high probability of interest rate cuts in the later period. - The mining end remains tight, and processing fees continue to decline weakly. Overall, profits will remain low under the influence of mining end disturbances. - LME inventories increased slightly week - on - week, SHFE inventories increased significantly week - on - week, and social inventories decreased slightly week - on - week. - Due to insufficient supply, the domestic economy still has resilience, and the overall prosperity of semiconductors, automobiles, etc. remains upward. Overseas uncertainties remain high, and there is still an expectation of interest rate cuts in the later period. The mining end situation is volatile. High - price expectations suppress demand and stimulate supply. After the futures price was significantly pulled up by funds and then fell sharply, the industry association called on all parties in the market to maintain a rational and cautious attitude, and the exchange introduced cooling measures. In terms of operation, reduce the holdings of long positions. The weekly reference support level has been raised to around 360,000 - 363,000 yuan/ton. For those who bought put options, they can reduce their positions after the market stabilizes. Later, focus should be on the implementation of macro - measures, the disturbances of Myanmar and Congo mines, the speed of Indonesia's exports, and the verification of consumption data. [14] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Week - on - Week View and Strategy - **View**: The impact factors such as output, downstream demand, inventory, imports and exports, market sentiment, cost - profit, and macro environment are all rated as neutral [15]. - **Strategy**: Reduce the holdings of long positions, with the weekly reference support level raised to around 360,000 - 363,000 yuan/ton. For put option buyers, reduce positions after the market stabilizes. Focus on macro - measures, mine disturbances, Indonesia's exports, and consumption data [14]. 3.2. Industrial Chain Structure No specific content provided for in - depth summary. 3.3. Futures and Spot Market No specific content provided for in - depth summary other than the mention of SHFE and LME tin futures - spot prices and basis charts [21]. 3.4. Inventory - As of January 15, 2026, SHFE tin inventory was 9,526 tons, with a significant week - on - week increase. - As of January 14, 2026, LME total tin inventory was 5,925 tons, with a slight week - on - week increase. - As of January 9, 2026, refined tin social inventory was 8,076 tons, with a slight week - on - week decrease [33][37]. 3.5. Cost - Profit As of January 15, 2026, the processing fee of Yunnan concentrate was 11,000 yuan/ton, and that of Guangxi concentrate was 7,000 yuan/ton. Processing fees continued to be weak [42]. 3.6. Supply - In November 2025, refined tin production was 15,490 tons, returning to normal supply. In October 2025, domestic tin ore production was 5,236.8 tons, with a slight month - on - month decrease. - In November 2025, the capacity utilization rate of tin enterprises was about 66.5%, returning to normal [48][52]. 3.7. Demand - In November 2025, China's automobile production was 3.519 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 2.4%; China's electronic computer production was 29.028 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 1.4%. - In December 2025, China's PVC production was 2.137 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.5%; in November 2025, China's mobile electronic communication production was 142.35 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 11.6%. - In November 2025, China's air - conditioner production was 15.026 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 23.4%; China's refrigerator production was 9.442 million units, a year - on - year increase of 5.6%. - In November 2025, China's washing - machine production was 12.013 million units, a year - on - year increase of 5.5%; China's color television production was 17.449 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 5%. - In November 2025, China's solar energy production was 73.49 million kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 7.8%; China's integrated circuit production was 43.9 million pieces, a year - on - year increase of 15.6% [59][64][69][74][78]. 3.8. Imports and Exports - In November 2025, China imported 15,000 tons of tin ore, with a significant month - on - month increase; imported 1,194 tons of tin ingots; and exported 2,045 tons of refined tin and alloys [82]. 3.9. Supply - Demand Table | Year/(10,000 tons) | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | China's Production | 18.1 | 15.9 | 18 | 19.8 | 17.9 | 17.4 | 18.1 | 18.45 | 18.67 | | Overseas Production | 17.7 | 19.5 | 14.8 | 15.3 | 20.1 | 19.2 | 17.1 | 17.5 | 19.3 | | Global Supply | 35.8 | 35.4 | 32.8 | 35.1 | 38 | 36.6 | 35.2 | 35.95 | 37.97 | | China's Demand | 14.9 | 14 | 16.4 | 18.4 | 18.1 | 18.75 | 19.1 | 19.3 | 19.87 | | Overseas Demand | 22.3 | 21.9 | 18.8 | 20.5 | 19.9 | 18.2 | 18.1 | 18.7 | 19.15 | | Global Demand | 37.2 | 35.9 | 35.2 | 38.9 | 38 | 36.95 | 37.2 | 38 | 39.02 | | Global Supply - Demand Balance | - 1.4 | - 0.5 | - 2.4 | - 3.8 | 0.05 | - 0.35 | - 2 | - 2.05 | - 1.05 | [85]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - The current pig industry is in a critical game period between short - term price pressure and long - term capacity clearance. The pattern of increasing supply and weak demand in the national pig market is difficult to change in the short term. The spot price of live pigs will remain at a low level even in the peak season. The futures market trend depends on market sentiment, and attention should be paid to factors such as the inventory of breeding sows, the slaughter rhythm of farmers, the scale of secondary fattening, and the realization of seasonal demand [12] - The pressure on the supply side of live pigs remains high, the progress of sow capacity reduction is slow, and the winter demand improvement has limited pulling effect. The medium - term spot price of live pigs lacks continuous upward drive and may be weakly adjusted after a short - term rebound [10][23] - The supply of commercial pigs is expected to continue to increase until the first half of 2026. The lowest price of this cycle is expected to be in the first quarter of 2026 [10][12] - The main contract pressure level is 12300 - 13000. In terms of options, you can buy call options of far - month contracts with a light position [13] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Weekly Views and Strategies 3.1.1. Fundamental Views - Spot: The weekly average price of live pig spot has increased. The national average live pig slaughter price is 12.61 yuan/kg, a week - on - week increase of 1.61% and a year - on - year decrease of 19.48%. The supply - side pressure remains high, the sow capacity reduction is slow, the winter demand improvement is limited, and the spot price may be weakly adjusted after a short - term rebound [10][23] - Capacity: In October 2025, the inventory of breeding sows was 39.9 million, a month - on - month decrease of 1.1%, falling below 40 million again. The capacity regulation has achieved initial results. However, the inventory is still in the green area of capacity regulation, and it does not mean the beginning of a new cycle of soaring pig prices. From April 2024 to November 2025, the inventory of breeding sows showed a fluctuating upward trend, and the sow capacity was basically stable in 2025. It is expected that the national live pig slaughter volume will continue to increase until May 2026, and the lowest price of this cycle is expected to be in the first quarter of 2026 [10] 3.1.2. Strategy Views and Outlook - Outlook: The industry is in a game period between short - term price pressure and long - term capacity clearance. The capacity reduction progress is slow, the supply of commercial pigs will continue to increase in the first half of 2026, and the long - term supply pressure is difficult to relieve fundamentally. The total domestic pork consumption shows a steady decline trend, and the pattern of increasing supply and weak demand is difficult to change in the short term. The supply pressure may further increase before the Spring Festival, and the spot price will remain low. Pay attention to factors such as the inventory of breeding sows, the slaughter rhythm of farmers, the scale of secondary fattening, and the realization of seasonal demand, and track the position dynamics of main funds [12] - Strategy: The main contract pressure level is 12300 - 13000. In terms of options, you can buy call options of far - month contracts with a light position [13] 3.2. Spot and Futures Markets - Spot price: The weekly average price of live pig spot has increased. The national average live pig slaughter price is 12.61 yuan/kg, a week - on - week increase of 1.61% and a year - on - year decrease of 19.48%. The supply - side pressure remains high, the sow capacity reduction is slow, the winter demand improvement is limited, and the spot price may be weakly adjusted after a short - term rebound [10][23] - Spot - futures basis: No specific analysis conclusion provided - Futures spread: No specific analysis conclusion provided - Standard - fat and hair - white price difference: The demand support for fat pigs is relatively strong, and the price increase of fat pigs is greater than that of standard pigs. The national standard - fat price difference has widened to - 0.64 yuan/kg this week [42] - Piglet and binary sow price: The weekly average price of 7kg piglets is 309.05 yuan/head, a week - on - week increase of 22.00% and a year - on - year decrease of 31.03%. The current national piglet profit is about 30 yuan/head [46] - Culled sow price: The price of culled sows has adjusted narrowly following the live pig price. It is expected that the price of culled sows of multiple parities may fluctuate and adjust next week [49] 3.3. Capacity - Inventory of breeding sows: In October 2025, the inventory of breeding sows was 39.9 million, a month - on - month decrease of 1.1%, falling below 40 million again. The capacity regulation has achieved initial results, and the inventory is still in the green area of capacity regulation. In December, the inventory continued to decline slowly. It is expected that the inventory will slightly decline in January [54][57] - Culled volume of breeding sows: In December, the culled volume of breeding sows in 123 large - scale farms was 115,814, a month - on - month increase of 3.06% and a year - on - year increase of 18.80%. The culled volume in 85 small and medium - sized farms was 11,518, a month - on - month decrease of 0.75% and a year - on - year increase of 5.47%. It is expected that the culled volume may increase easily and decrease difficultly in January [61] - Inventory proportion of breeding sows: No specific analysis conclusion provided 3.4. Supply Side - Inventory of commercial pigs: In December, the inventory of commercial pigs in 123 large - scale farms was 36.9216 million, a month - on - month decrease of 0.23% and a year - on - year increase of 4.72%. The inventory in 85 small and medium - sized farms was 1.5558 million, a month - on - month decrease of 0.09% and a year - on - year increase of 8.17%. It is expected that the inventory will increase in January [69] - Slaughter volume of commercial pigs: In November, the slaughter volume of commercial pigs in 123 large - scale farms was 11.3649 million, a month - on - month decrease of 0.65% and a year - on - year increase of 15.59%. The slaughter volume in 85 small and medium - sized farms was 0.5151 million, a month - on - month decrease of 2.03% and a year - on - year increase of 29.75%. It is expected that the slaughter volume may increase in December [72] - Slaughter average weight of commercial pigs: The weekly average slaughter weight of live pigs has adjusted narrowly and the center of gravity has slightly moved down. It is difficult to drive the increase of the slaughter weight [78] 3.5. Demand Side - Slaughter volume of live pigs: The purchase cost of slaughtering enterprises has increased, the terminal reception is average, and the weekly average operating rate is weakly running. The slaughtering enterprises have reduced production to maintain prices, increased the fresh - sales ratio, and the frozen product inventory is in the stage of slow digestion [83] - Cold storage rate of slaughtering enterprises: After the festival, the market demand has declined, the purchase cost pressure of slaughtering enterprises is high, and they have reduced production to maintain prices. The frozen product inventory level has continued to decline [86] - Operating rate and fresh - sales rate of slaughtering enterprises: This week, the operating rate of slaughtering enterprises is 35.91%, a decrease of 0.72 percentage points from last week and a decrease of 1.14 percentage points from the same period last year. It is expected that the operating rate will maintain a weak and narrow - range shock next week [89] - Substitute price: No specific analysis conclusion provided 3.6. Cost and Profit - Pig breeding and slaughtering profit: This week, the overall loss of the domestic pig breeding industry has continued to narrow. The average profit per head in the self - breeding and self - raising mode is 63.5 yuan. The average loss per head in the mode of purchasing piglets is 39.11 yuan, a significant narrowing of 35.78 yuan from last week. It is expected that the breeding profit may be under pressure in the middle and late ten days [102] - Slaughtering gross profit and feed - to - meat ratio: No specific analysis conclusion provided - Pig - to - grain ratio: This week, the pig - to - grain ratio is 5.44, a week - on - week increase of 1.26%. The market is still in the state of excessive decline warning. It is expected that the pig - to - grain ratio will continue to slightly expand next week [108]