20251228 蒋琴 交易咨询号：Z0014038 从业资格号：F3027808 0769-22110802 华联期货生猪周报 供需宽松 猪价区间窄幅震荡 期货交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1285号 审核：黄忠夏，从业资格号：F0285615,交易咨询号：Z0010771 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 策略观点与展望 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 周度观点策略 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 基本面观点 u 现货：周内生猪现货价格区间窄幅震荡。据我的农产品网数据统计，全国生猪出栏均价为11.44元/公斤，较上周价格下跌0.02元/ 公斤，环比下跌0.17%，同比下跌25.67%，低价区报10.80元/公斤。目前需求端腌腊起量，但屠宰企业宰量未有明显增加，需求整 体拉动有限。近期规模企业出栏节奏正常，且市场看涨情绪增加 ...

期货交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1285号 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 华联期货纯碱玻璃周报 基本面承压，玻碱反弹空间有限 20251228 孙伟涛 0769-22110802 从业资格号：F0276620 交易咨询号：Z0014688 审核人：黄忠夏，从业资格号：F0285615,交易咨询号：Z0010771 纯碱观点 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 u 库存：截止到2025年12月25日，当周国内纯碱厂家总库存143.85万吨。其中，轻质纯碱73.55万吨，重质纯碱 70.30万吨。去年同期库存量为145.49万吨，同比下降1.64万吨，跌幅1.13%。个别交割厂库库存下降，其他 变化不大。 u 供应：截止到2025年12月25日，当周国内纯碱产量71.18万吨，环比下降0.96万吨，跌幅1.32%。其中，轻质 碱产量32.63万吨，环比下降0.48万吨。重质碱产量38.55万吨，环比下降0.48万吨。企业 ...

期货交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1285号 华联期货鸡蛋周报 短期供需变动不大 蛋价窄幅震荡 20251228 蒋琴 0769-22110802 从业资格号：F3027808 交易咨询号：Z0014038 审核：黄忠夏，从业资格号：F0285615,交易咨询号：Z0010771 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 1 周度观点及策略 2 期现市场 3 产能 4 供给端 5 需求端 6 成本及利润 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 周度观点策略 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 基本面观点 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 u 现货：周内全国鸡蛋现货价格延续区间窄幅震荡。据我的农产品网数据统计，鸡蛋主产区均价2.91元/斤，较上周下跌0.01 ...

期货交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1285号 华联期货锡周报 协会发声 强势震荡 20251228 作者：姜世东 0769-22110802 从业资格号：F03126164 交易咨询号：Z0020059 审核人：黄忠夏，从业资格号：F0285615,交易咨询号：Z0010771 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 1 周度观点及策略 2 产业链结构 3 期现市场 4 库存 6 供给 7 需求 8 进出口 周度观点及策略 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 周度观点 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 u 行情：上周沪锡冲高回落；2025年12月25日，Mysteel综合1#锡现货价格332750元/吨，期间期价波动较大，基差 变化较大。 u 供给：精锡产量11月份产量15490吨，环比、同比恢复正常；国内锡矿产量1-9月份累计5.65万 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US economy shows resilience, and the market generally expects that after the replacement of the Fed Chairman, a relatively loose monetary policy will be adopted, pushing up the prices of precious metals and non - ferrous metals. The structural contradiction of supply falling short of demand between the copper mine supply end and the electrolytic copper smelting end is prominent, and the copper smelting end may continue to be under pressure. It is expected that the global copper production growth rate will be limited next year. Although the traditional power distribution copper demand accounts for the largest proportion, the copper consumption in emerging fields such as new energy power generation is growing rapidly. The upgrade of global power grid and other infrastructure in the future may support copper demand, and the incremental copper demand in new energy power generation and other industries is promising. The Shanghai copper futures have broken through the 100,000 - yuan/ton mark, and the market is expected to remain strong around New Year's Day [7]. - The recommended strategy is to continue to hold medium - term long positions, conduct short - term rolling long operations, and the medium - term support range for Shanghai copper 2603 is 95,000 - 96,000 yuan/ton [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Views and Strategies - **Macro**: The US economy shows resilience, with the real GDP in the third quarter growing by 4.3%, the fastest in two years. The market expects a more relaxed monetary policy after the change of the Fed Chairman [7]. - **Supply**: The 2026 copper concentrate long - term processing fee benchmark is set at $0/ton and $0/lb, significantly lower than that in 2025. In 2025, due to various disturbances, the annual mine - end production guidance has been revised down by over 500,000 tons, and the copper concentrate supply in 2025 is expected to be basically the same as in 2024. The supply - demand contradiction between the copper mine supply end and the smelting end is prominent [7]. - **Demand**: The traditional power distribution copper demand accounts for about 28%. The copper consumption in new energy power generation and other emerging industries is growing rapidly. In 2024, the copper demand from clean energy reached 7.737 million tons, a 28.9% increase from 2021. The future infrastructure upgrade may support copper demand [7]. - **Inventory**: Due to the rise in copper prices affecting downstream procurement, the domestic social inventory and SHFE inventory have rebounded rapidly in the short term [7]. - **Strategy**: Continue to hold medium - term long positions, conduct short - term rolling long operations, and the medium - term support range for Shanghai copper 2603 is 95,000 - 96,000 yuan/ton [6]. 2. Spot and Futures Markets - The report presents figures on domestic spot and futures prices, Shanghai flat - water copper premiums and discounts, LME copper prices, and the Shanghai - London copper price ratio, but no specific analysis content is provided [11][13] 3. Supply and Inventory - **Global Copper Mine Capital Expenditure and New Discoveries**: Global copper exploration investment has fluctuated greatly. Since 2015, the discovery of high - grade copper mines has decreased year by year, and new large - scale copper mines are in areas with poor geological conditions or political instability [20]. - **Global Copper Mine and Refined Copper Production Distribution**: In 2024, Chile accounted for 23% of global copper mine production, and China accounted for 45% of global refined copper production [23][25]. - **Copper Concentrate Processing Fee TC and Global Copper Mine Production**: As of December 26, 2025, the comprehensive TC price of 26% clean copper concentrate was - $44.70/ton, and the spot price was $3,291/ton. The current spot processing fee is far below the break - even point. In 2025, the global copper concentrate production showed a certain trend [30]. - **2026 Global Newly Expanded and Interrupted Copper Mine Output Increment**: The total incremental output in 2026 is expected to be 533,000 tons, but the actual growth rate may be less than 1.5%. It is estimated that the overseas new - added capacity from 2025 - 2026 will be 620,000 tons [32][33]. - **Copper Concentrate Import and Inventory**: In November 2025, China's copper concentrate imports were 2.5262 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.13%. As of the 52nd week of 2025, the port inventory of imported copper concentrate was 680,000 tons [36]. - **Global and Chinese Electrolytic Copper Production**: In October 2025, the global refined copper production was 2.2419 million tons, with a supply shortage of 1,400 tons. In the same month, China's refined copper production was 1.204 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.9% [41]. - **Chinese Electrolytic Copper Import and Export Volume**: In November 2025, China's refined copper imports were 304,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 23.47%. From January to November 2025, the cumulative exports were 681,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 49.33% [43]. - **Chinese Scrap Copper Import and Premium - Discount Difference**: From January to November 2025, China's cumulative scrap copper imports were 2.104 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.6%. As of December 26, 2025, the premium - discount difference in the Guangdong market was 5,928 yuan/ton [47][48]. - **International Visible Inventory**: As of December 23, 2025, the LME inventory was 157,800 tons, and the copper inventory in the New York market reached a new high in recent years [54][55]. - **Domestic Inventory**: Since May 2025, the domestic social inventory has fluctuated between 1 - 2 million tons. As of December 25, 2025, the social inventory was 202,200 tons. The SHFE inventory has also remained low [59]. 4. Primary Processing and Terminal Markets - **Primary Processing Market**: From January to November 2025, China's cumulative copper product output was 22.593 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.9%. In November 2025, China imported 427,000 tons of unwrought copper and copper products, and the total export volume from January to November 2025 was 1.4971 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 24.10% [65][70]. - **Terminal Market - Power**: From January to November 2025, the investment in power source projects of major power generation enterprises in China was 850 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 1.8%; the investment in power grid projects was 560.4 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.9% [74]. - **Terminal Market - Real Estate**: From January to November, China's real estate development investment was 7.8591 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 15.9% [80]. - **Terminal Market - Automobile**: From January to November 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 31.231 million and 31.127 million vehicles respectively, a year - on - year increase of 11.9% and 11.4%. The production and sales of new energy vehicles were 14.907 million and 14.78 million vehicles respectively, a year - on - year increase of 31.4% and 31.2%. The penetration rate of new energy vehicles reached 53.6%. It is expected that the sales volume of new energy vehicles in 2026 will reach 1.85 million vehicles [85][90]. - **Terminal Market - Home Appliances**: In November 2025, China's air - conditioner output was 15.026 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 23.4%. From January to November 2025, the export volume of household appliances was 408.2801 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 0.4% [94]. - **Terminal Market - Photovoltaic and Wind Power**: As of November 2025, China's solar power installed capacity was 1.16 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 41.9%; the wind power installed capacity was 600 million kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 22.4% [98]. - **Chinese Photovoltaic and Wind Power Newly - Added Copper Consumption and Global AI Copper Consumption Forecast**: It is expected that the copper consumption of China's photovoltaic and wind power installations will decrease in 2025 and 2026. The global data center scale and copper consumption are expected to increase in 2025 and 2026 [100][101][102]. 5. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet and Industrial Chain Structure - **Global Copper Downstream Demand Structure Change and Supply - Demand Balance Forecast**: From 2026 - 2028, the global refined copper supply and demand will have a continuous gap of 160,000 tons, 360,000 tons, and 610,000 tons respectively. The proportion of new energy consumption in total consumption is increasing [106]. - **Industrial Chain Structure**: No specific analysis content is provided [109]

期货交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1285号 华联期货镍周报 政策扰动 大幅反弹 20251228 作者：姜世东 0769-22110802 从业资格号：F03126164 交易咨询号：Z0020059 审核人：黄忠夏，从业资格号：F0285615,交易咨询号：Z0010771 1 周度观点及策略 2 产业链结构 3 期现市场 4 供应端 6 需求端 7 库存端 5 中间品 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 周度观点及策略 周度观点 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 u 上周沪镍低位大幅震荡反弹。 u 消息：人民币汇率破"7"在望。本周以来，在岸、离岸人民币对美元汇率稳步走高，周三离岸人民币对美元升穿7.01，一度触及7.0013， 距离破"7"关口只步之遥。国家能源局公布数据显示，11月份全社会用电量8356亿千瓦时，同比增长6.2%。其中，充换电服务业用电量同 比增长60.2%。印度尼西亚镍矿企业协会(APNI)透露 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided in the report Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report anticipates that the global electrolytic aluminum supply will remain tight next year and that aluminum prices are expected to stay strong in the medium to long term due to supply constraints and growing demand from emerging industries [7]. - The recommended strategy is to continue holding medium - term long positions and engage in short - term rolling long positions, with the reference support range for SHFE Aluminum 2603 at 21,600 - 21,700 yuan/ton [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Views and Strategies - **Macro**: The US economy shows resilience, with a 4.3% growth in real GDP in Q3 2025. There are expectations of a more accommodative monetary policy after a potential change in the Fed Chair [7]. - **Supply**: China's electrolytic aluminum capacity expansion is restricted. Indonesia's planned new capacity is large but limited in actual increase in 2025. European production declined due to the energy crisis, and US output dropped for five consecutive years. Global supply is expected to be tight in the coming year [7]. - **Demand**: The domestic real - estate market is sluggish, but its impact on aluminum demand is reduced. New energy vehicles, energy storage, AI, and power grid construction in China and abroad are driving aluminum demand [7]. - **Inventory**: China's social aluminum inventory slightly increased due to rising prices and the end - of - year off - season [7]. - **View**: Medium - to long - term aluminum prices are expected to remain strong [7]. - **Strategy**: Hold medium - term long positions and do short - term rolling long positions, with SHFE Aluminum 2603 supported at 21,600 - 21,700 yuan/ton [7]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets - The report includes charts of domestic aluminum futures and spot prices, A00 aluminum ingot spot premiums/discounts, LME aluminum prices, and the Shanghai - London aluminum ratio, but no specific data analysis is provided [11][16] 3. Supply and Inventory - **Bauxite**: In November 2025, China imported 15.11 million tons of bauxite, a 22.5% year - on - year increase. From January to November 2025, cumulative imports were 187 million tons, a 29.61% increase. Guinea and Australia are major sources. Guinea's new production projects are expected to increase output [23][25][26]. - **Alumina**: In November 2025, China's alumina production was 8.138 million tons, an 8.4% year - on - year increase for January - November. There was a net export of 1.373 million tons from January to November. New domestic and overseas capacities are expected in 2025 and 2026 [39][43]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: In November 2025, the cost of electrolytic aluminum increased, while profits grew. The built - in capacity was 45.158 million tons, and the operating rate was 96.28%. Global and domestic production increased slightly in 2025. Import and export data showed changes in 2025. LME and domestic social inventories were reported as of December 2025 [53][59][60] 4. Primary Processing and Terminal Markets - **Aluminum Alloys**: In November 2025, China's aluminum alloy production was 1.739 million tons, with a 15.8% increase from January to November [79]. - **Aluminum Products**: In November 2025, China's aluminum product production was 5.931 million tons, a slight decrease. Import and export volumes of unforged aluminum and aluminum products changed in 2025 [86][92]. - **Downstream Demand**: The demand structure of electrolytic aluminum in China is changing. The real - estate sector's demand is decreasing, while transportation, power, and other sectors are growing. Forecasts for transportation, power, and energy storage show an upward trend in aluminum demand [100][105][106] 5. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet and Industrial Chain Structure - **Supply - Demand Forecast**: In 2026, China's electrolytic aluminum is expected to be in a tight balance, and the global market is also expected to be in a tight balance. After 2027, the global supply - demand gap may widen [110]. - **Industrial Chain Structure**: No specific content provided in the report

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The short - term stock index may fluctuate, but the trend remains unchanged, and it is expected to attack the previous high. The shock digestion since November has entered the end, and from December to January of the next year, it is likely to enter the window period of cross - year layout. The market is expected to show a shock climb again. The mid - term view of being bullish on the stock index remains unchanged. It is recommended to layout and go long on the spring market of the stock index. In terms of operation, hold mid - term long positions and continue to add positions opportunistically; hold call options. [13] Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Views and Strategies Fundamental Views - Last week, the broader market continued to rebound and continuously stood above the 60 - day moving average. The four major indexes all rose, with the small - and medium - cap indexes leading the gains. Most of the style indexes rose, with the growth and cyclical style indexes leading the gains, and only the consumer style index falling. Most of the Shenwan industries rose, with the non - ferrous metals, military, electrical equipment, and electronics sectors leading the gains, while the tourism, banking, coal, and food and beverage sectors led the losses. [8][18][21] - In November 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month; the non - manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, down 0.7 percentage points from the previous month. The supply and demand sides of the manufacturing PMI rebounded slightly in November, with the new export orders rebounding by a relatively large 1.7%, which is related to the mitigation of Sino - US tariffs; the ex - factory price and the purchase price of raw materials rebounded again after two months of decline. [8][36] - The growth rate of medium - and long - term credit has been falling continuously for 30 months to 5.89% as of November 2025, and continues to decline. [8][47] - The Politburo set the tone for the real estate market to stop falling and stabilize, and boost the capital market; the State Council issued the new Nine - Article Guidelines to strongly support investor returns; the central bank created two new types of monetary policy tools; the implementation plan for promoting the entry of medium - and long - term funds into the market was officially released, which is expected to add 800 billion yuan of long - term funds to the A - share market annually. [8][55] - The A - share performance showed signs of stabilization in the first quarter, declined in the second quarter, and continued to stabilize and rebound in the third quarter. The performance of the four major indexes rebounded again in the third quarter of 2025. [8][73][77] - The Shanghai Composite Index's valuation is 16.5341, with an upper - limit value of 15.66, and it is at the 87.09th percentile since 2010, at a relatively high level since 2010. However, as performance rises, the valuation will decline. The ChiNext valuation is at a relatively low level. [10][90][92] - In terms of margin trading, the net inflow in 2024 was 274.8 billion yuan; as of December 25, 2025, the net inflow in 2025 was 674.3 billion yuan, and the net inflow in the first five trading days was 45.9 billion yuan. The scale of private securities investment funds increased by 1.7946 trillion yuan this year, and the total scale is currently 7.0076 trillion yuan. The newly registered scale this year is 386 billion yuan. The market value of A - shares held by insurance funds increased by 552.4 billion yuan in the third quarter of 2025, with a month - on - month increase of 18.00%. As of September 30, 2025, the newly established share of stock - type funds was 323.3 billion, and that of hybrid funds was 103.6 billion. The net inflow of index funds in 2025 was 104.9 billion yuan, while the net outflow of active equity funds was 444.9 billion yuan. From April 7 to December 19, 2025, the ETF scale increased by 176.3 billion yuan, and last week it increased by 47.3 billion yuan. As of December 19, the net inflow of ETF funds this year was 79.3 billion yuan. [11][97][101] Strategy Views and Outlook - The broader market fluctuated and rose for eight consecutive days last Friday, with a dive during the session and the trading volume increased to more than 2 trillion yuan, remaining above the 60 - day moving average. The market sentiment declined, and there may be short - term fluctuations, but the trend remains unchanged, and it is expected to attack the previous high. It is recommended to layout and go long on the spring market of the stock index. In terms of operation, hold mid - term long positions and continue to add positions opportunistically; hold call options. [13] 2. Index Industry Trend Review - Last week, the broader market continued to rebound and continuously stood above the 60 - day moving average. The four major indexes all rose, with the small - and medium - cap indexes leading the gains. Most of the style indexes rose, with the growth and cyclical style indexes leading the gains, and only the consumer style index falling. Most of the Shenwan industries rose, with the non - ferrous metals, military, electrical equipment, and electronics sectors leading the gains, while the tourism, banking, coal, and food and beverage sectors led the losses. [8][18][21] 3. Main Contract and Basis Trend - The four major indexes continued to rebound. In terms of the basis, it started from the quarterly main contract and is at a relatively high level. In terms of the arbitrage of each main contract, IC/IF and IC/IH fluctuated and stabilized, IH/IF stabilized; IM/IF and IM/IH fluctuated weakly; IM/IC fluctuated and declined. [25][30] 4. Policy and Economy Economy - In November 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month; the non - manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, down 0.7 percentage points from the previous month. The supply and demand sides of the manufacturing PMI rebounded slightly in November, with the new export orders rebounding by a relatively large 1.7%, which is related to the mitigation of Sino - US tariffs; the ex - factory price and the purchase price of raw materials rebounded again after two months of decline. [36] - Generally, PPI leads the inventory cycle. PPI bottomed out and rebounded in June 2023, weakened after two months, and the decline has been narrowing continuously since March 2024. The decline of PPI has been narrowing again since November 2025. In October, the operating revenue of industrial enterprises fell to 1.8%, the inventory continued to rise to 3.7%, demand declined, and there was passive inventory replenishment. [39] - China's social financing scale in November was 2488.5 billion yuan, an increase of 152.8 billion yuan compared with the same period last year. Among them, new RMB loans were 405.3 billion yuan, a decrease of 117 billion yuan compared with the same period last year, mainly due to a decrease of 206.3 billion yuan in household loans. Government bonds were 1204.1 billion yuan, a decrease of 106 billion yuan compared with the same period last year. [42] - The growth rate of medium - and long - term credit has been falling continuously for 30 months to 5.89% as of November 2025, and continues to decline. [47] Policy - New Nine - Article Guidelines: It aims to improve the overall quality of listed companies from the source and promote listed companies to pay more attention to rewarding shareholders. [51] - Implementation Plan for Promoting the Entry of Medium - and Long - Term Funds into the Market: It includes measures such as increasing the actual investment ratio, extending the assessment period, and forming a joint force to implement incremental policies, which is expected to bring a large amount of long - term funds into the A - share market. [54] - The Politburo set the tone for the real estate market to stop falling and stabilize, and boost the capital market, including measures to boost the capital market, promote the entry of medium - and long - term funds, support mergers and acquisitions of listed companies, and promote the stable development of the real estate market. [55] - The central bank created new monetary policy tools, including a swap facility for securities, funds, and insurance companies and a stock repurchase and increase re - loan, and carried out MLF operations and reverse repurchase operations, and adjusted relevant interest rates. [58] - A large - scale debt - resolution measure was announced, which will directly increase 10 trillion yuan of local debt - resolution funds and significantly reduce the local debt - resolution pressure. [59] - Accelerate the construction of first - class investment banks and investment institutions to better promote the high - quality development of the capital market, including implementing differentiated supervision for different types of securities companies. [60] - The 14th Five - Year Plan: It is a crucial five - year period with multiple strategic goals to be achieved. It involves aspects such as the international trade pattern, Sino - US relations, supply - chain reconstruction, and domestic economic development. [63] - The US mid - term elections: The policy environment in the next year will be more favorable for risk assets. The mid - term election schedule and expected fiscal support are also mentioned. [64][66] 5. Revenue and Net Profit of Each Index - The A - share performance showed signs of stabilization in the first quarter, declined in the second quarter, and continued to stabilize and rebound in the third quarter. The performance of the four major indexes rebounded again in the third quarter of 2025. [73][77] 6. Valuation - The Shanghai Composite Index's valuation is 16.5341, with an upper - limit value of 15.66, and it is at the 87.09th percentile since 2010, at a relatively high level since 2010. However, as performance rises, the valuation will decline. The ChiNext valuation is at a relatively low level. [10][90][92] 7. Federal Reserve Interest Rate - Not provided in the given content 8. Capital Flow - In terms of margin trading, the net inflow in 2024 was 274.8 billion yuan; as of December 25, 2025, the net inflow in 2025 was 674.3 billion yuan, and the net inflow in the first five trading days was 45.9 billion yuan. [97] - The scale of private securities investment funds increased by 1.7946 trillion yuan this year, and the total scale is currently 7.0076 trillion yuan. The newly registered scale this year is 386 billion yuan. [101] - The market value of A - shares held by insurance funds increased by 552.4 billion yuan in the third quarter of 2025, with a month - on - month increase of 18.00%, and the market value of A - shares held by insurance funds increased by 1.193 trillion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, with an increase of 758.4 billion yuan after deducting the scale growth. [103][104] - The market value of the national team increased by 4 billion in the third quarter, with little change, while the CSI 300 index rose by 17.9%. The mid - and long - term A - share market value increased by nearly 90 billion in the third quarter, and the market value of A - shares held by mid - and long - term A - share investment entities increased by 1.8145 trillion in the first three quarters of 2025. [106][108] - From April 7 to December 19, 2025, the ETF scale increased by 204 billion yuan; last week, the ETF scale continued to increase by 27.7 billion yuan. As of December 26, the net inflow of ETF funds this year was 107 billion yuan. [111] - As of September 30, 2025, the newly established share of stock - type funds was 323.3 billion, and that of hybrid funds was 103.6 billion. [117] - In October 2025, the deposits of non - bank financial institutions increased by 1.8574 trillion yuan again, and the total deposits of non - bank financial institutions increased by 6.6688 trillion yuan this year. Overall, funds are flowing from the banking system to non - bank channels such as the capital market and wealth management products. [121] - As of last weekend, the IPO financing in 2023 was 356.5 billion yuan; in 2024, it was 67.3 billion yuan; in 2025, it was 125.3 billion yuan. [129] - Last week, the net reduction of major shareholders in the secondary market was 14.2 billion yuan, at a relatively high level. [134] - The unlocking volume in the first half of 2026 is relatively small. [138] 9. Technical Analysis - The daily - line trend charts of the Shanghai 50 Index, CSI 300 Index, CSI 500 Index, and CSI 1000 Index are provided, showing the price trends of these indexes from December 26, 2024, to December 23, 2025. [142][144][146][148]

期货交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1285号 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 华联期货钢矿周报 政策预期升温，钢矿震荡偏强 20251228 1 周度观点及策略 2 期现市场 3 需求端 4 库存端 5 供应端 6 原料端-铁矿石 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 周度观点及策略 孙伟涛 0769-22110802 从业资格号：F0276620 交易咨询号：Z0014688 审核人：黄忠夏，从业资格号：F0285615,交易咨询号：Z0010771 螺纹钢观点 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 u 库存：钢联五大品种库存延续去库。分品种看，螺纹钢库存继续减少，其中钢厂库存小幅增加，社会库存继 续下降；热卷 ...

期货交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1285号 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自己公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 华联期货工业硅、多晶硅周报 光伏下游库存低位 20251228 作者：陈小国 0769-22116880 从业资格号：F03100622 交易咨询号：Z0021111 审核：黄忠夏，从业资格号：F0285615,交易咨询号：Z0010771 2 行业格局 3 期现市场 4 库存 1 周度观点及热点资讯 8 进出口 5 成本利润 6 供给 7 需求 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自己公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自己公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 周度观点及热点资讯 热点资讯 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自己公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 u 12月26日，市场监管总局在安徽合肥对光伏行业开展价格竞争秩序合规指导。市场监管总 ...