PMI点评：企业信心开始升温，期待财政扩张消费

Core Insights - The report indicates a significant improvement in the manufacturing PMI for September 2024, rising by 0.7 to 49.8, marking the highest level in nearly five months, with both supply and demand sides showing substantial improvement [1][3] - The production index and new orders index increased by 1.4 and 1.0 respectively, with the production confidence index rising above the threshold, reflecting companies' expectations for continuous improvement in domestic demand [1][3] - Despite the positive domestic outlook, new export orders fell sharply by 1.2 to 47.5, highlighting a divergence in confidence between domestic and international demand [1][3] Manufacturing Sector Analysis - The manufacturing PMI's rise is attributed to fiscal subsidies boosting consumption and recent policy measures enhancing corporate confidence [1][3] - The report notes that the consumer goods manufacturing PMI increased by 1.1 to 51.1, indicating a potential real demand improvement, particularly in durable goods [1][3] - The inventory index for finished goods slightly decreased by 0.1 to 48.4, suggesting a moderate pace of inventory replenishment amid ongoing deleveraging pressures [1][3] Service and Construction Sector Insights - The service sector PMI experienced a slight decline of 0.3 to 49.9, reflecting low expectations for holiday tourism consumption, consistent with previous years' trends [1][3] - The construction sector PMI rose marginally by 0.1 to 50.7 but remains near historical lows, indicating persistent challenges in the sector despite policy support [1][3] - The report emphasizes that the current economic stage requires a balanced approach to policy, avoiding a return to excessive leverage while promoting sustainable growth [1][3] Policy Implications - The report highlights the government's commitment to stabilizing growth through a combination of fiscal and monetary policies, aiming for a balance between growth and structural optimization [1][3] - The anticipated fiscal expansion, potentially amounting to 1 trillion yuan, is expected to support durable consumption and tax reductions for low-income groups, serving as a critical test for future policy effectiveness [1][3] - Overall, the report suggests that the current policy measures reflect a pragmatic approach to enhancing domestic demand without reverting to previous high-leverage growth strategies [1][3]