社会服务行业投资策略周报：风险偏好修复，紧抓消费行情反弹机遇

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the industry [1] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the recovery of risk appetite and the opportunity to capitalize on the rebound in consumer spending [1] Summary by Sections Duty-Free Industry - The duty-free sales sentiment index was 29.5 from September 16 to September 22, 2024, indicating a need for improvement due to temporary impacts from a typhoon [15] - Passenger flow in Hainan reached 356,000, recovering to 97.7% of 2019 levels, with Haikou airport seeing a 29% increase in passenger flow [15][19] - The report suggests focusing on China Duty Free Group due to its reasonable valuation and high market share, with new city duty-free stores expected to open in Q4 [28] Hotel Industry - National occupancy rate (OCC) was 53.67%, down 3.14 percentage points week-on-week and down 6.61 percentage points year-on-year [29] - Average daily rate (ADR) was 202.33 CNY, reflecting a 4.22% year-on-year decline [29] - The report recommends focusing on leading hotel chains like Huazhu Group and Jinjiang Hotels for both short-term and long-term investments [36] Education Industry - The report highlights the positive growth in K12 education companies, with a focus on leading firms that have completed compliance transformations [36] - The "Double Reduction" policy has led to a significant decrease in the number of off-campus training institutions, while the quality of education has improved [36][39] - Investment suggestions include major players like New Oriental and TAL Education, which are expected to benefit from the ongoing educational reforms [39] Medical Aesthetics and Cosmetics - The medical aesthetics sector is seen as having significant rebound potential, with companies like Jiangsu Wuzhong expected to perform well due to new product launches [36] - The cosmetics industry is currently facing challenges, but government policies aimed at boosting consumption are expected to improve market sentiment [36] Retail Industry - The report notes that offline retail is likely to recover due to favorable employment and real estate policies, with a focus on department stores [36] - Cross-border e-commerce is expected to benefit from the Fed's interest rate cuts, with recommendations for companies like Jiujiu Technology and Chuangke Industrial [36] Human Resources - The report discusses the stable employment situation, with the urban survey unemployment rate averaging 5.2% in the first eight months of 2024 [43] - It suggests focusing on leading companies in the human resources sector that have strong financial and operational advantages [43]