铝月报（202409）：8月电解铝产量延续增势，矿端复产仍有阻力

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" for companies expected to outperform the market index by over 20% in the next six months [67]. Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the supply of bauxite is tight, while the downstream demand for electrolytic aluminum remains resilient, leading to a price increase for both bauxite and electrolytic aluminum. The average profit for the aluminum industry has narrowed due to rising costs from bauxite and electricity [4][57]. - The report highlights that the domestic apparent consumption of electrolytic aluminum in August increased by 1.2% month-on-month and 2.9% year-on-year, indicating steady demand growth despite challenges in the real estate sector [4][52]. Summary by Sections 1. Electrolytic Aluminum - Supply: In August, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum was 43.514 million tons, with a production of 3.7024 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.5% [12][14]. - Imports and Exports: The net import of electrolytic aluminum in August was 148,400 tons, with a significant increase in imports from Russia [14]. - Profit: The average profit per ton of aluminum decreased to 1,694.0 yuan, down 36.1% year-on-year, primarily due to falling aluminum prices and rising costs [19]. 2. Recycled Aluminum - Imports: In August, the import of scrap aluminum increased by 1.9% month-on-month, with a total of 138,000 tons imported [21]. - Profit: The price difference between refined and scrap aluminum widened, with an average of 1,061.5 yuan per ton in August, reflecting an increase of 11.0% month-on-month [28]. 3. Aluminum Products - Supply: The production of aluminum products in August was 5.82 million tons, showing a year-on-year increase of 6.1% [30]. - Exports: The export volume of aluminum products in August was 590,000 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 20.4% [31]. 4. Bauxite - Supply: The production of bauxite in August was 7.407 million tons, with a slight decrease in operating rates [40]. - Imports and Exports: In August, bauxite had a net import of -137,000 tons, indicating a significant reduction in imports [42]. - Profit: The average profit for bauxite narrowed to 1,038.6 yuan per ton due to rising costs [47]. 5. Terminal Demand - Consumption: The apparent consumption of electrolytic aluminum in August was 3.851 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 2.9% [52]. - Sector Performance: The report notes a decline in new housing starts and completions, while infrastructure investment and production in the new energy vehicle sector showed positive growth [4][52]. 6. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in companies such as China Aluminum, China Hongqiao, and others, citing strong demand and favorable market conditions for aluminum prices [57].