铜月报（202409）：8月铜精矿现货加工费延续低位，铜价维持涨势

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that copper concentrate processing fees remain low, while copper prices continue to rise. The supply-demand balance for copper is tight, providing strong support for copper prices in the medium to long term [2][3][53]. Summary by Sections Raw Material Side - In August, copper ore imports increased significantly, with a total of 2.574 million tons, up 409,000 tons (+18.9%) month-on-month. The cumulative import from January to August reached 18.644 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 524,000 tons (+2.9%) [12][14]. - Waste copper imports in August were 170,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 14,000 tons (+8.8%) but a month-on-month decrease of 25,000 tons (-12.9%). The cumulative import for the first eight months was 732,000 tons, up 81,000 tons (+12.4%) year-on-year [14]. Supply Side - In August, the production of cathode copper was 1.002 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.0% and a month-on-month increase of 0.4%. The capacity utilization rate was 81.44% [19]. - Cathode copper imports in August were 250,000 tons, down 75,000 tons (-23.2%) year-on-year and down 25,000 tons (-9.0%) month-on-month. The cumulative import from January to August was 2.325 million tons, an increase of 167,000 tons (+7.7%) year-on-year [19][22]. - The average processing fee for copper smelting was $6.58 per ton, down $86.8 per ton (-93.0%) year-on-year and down $0.15 per ton (-2.2%) month-on-month [24]. Processing Side - In August, copper material production was 1.9255 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 0.2%. The cumulative production from January to August was 14.376 million tons, down 1.7% year-on-year [29]. - Copper material exports in August were 105,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 29,000 tons (+39.1%) but a month-on-month decrease of 36,000 tons (-25.6%). The cumulative export for the first eight months was 954,000 tons, up 427,000 tons (+42.7%) year-on-year [32]. Terminal Demand - The apparent demand in August was 1.221 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 1.5%. Notable production figures include air conditioners at 14.98 million units (down 9.4% year-on-year) and new energy vehicles at 1.09 million units (up 29.5% year-on-year) [37]. Macroeconomic Analysis - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut of 50 basis points is expected to support industrial metal prices, with the U.S. CPI showing a downward trend [42][48]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the tight supply-demand balance will support copper prices, with a strong outlook for the medium to long term driven by robust demand in the new energy sector [53].