Timor-Leste Economic Report

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry. Core Insights - Timor-Leste's economy grew by 2.3 percent in 2023, following growth rates of 2.9 percent in 2021 and 4.0 percent in 2022, reflecting fiscal drag and low budget execution rates due to political transitions [24][40] - The reliance on public sector-driven economic activity has led to stagnant labor market dynamics, with a notable decline in labor productivity and wage levels, particularly among those with higher education [48][50] - The strengthening US dollar has eased price pressures, but food inflation remains high, particularly for rice, driven by reduced international supply [26][27] - The balance of the Petroleum Fund was stable at USD 18.45 billion as of March 2024, reflecting a modest increase from the previous year [27] Recent Developments - Global growth remains sluggish, with advanced economies experiencing a slowdown to 1.5 percent in 2023, while Timor-Leste's economic recovery lags behind regional averages [38][39] - Domestic economic expansion slowed due to political transitions, with private consumption increasing by 3.2 percent, supported by remittance inflows [42][43] - Budget execution rates remain low, with only 25 percent of the total Central Government budget expended by May 2024, aligning with historical averages [25][61] Outlook and Risks - Timor-Leste is forecasted to maintain a recovery trajectory, with growth rates nearing 3 percent in 2024 and averaging 3.7 percent from 2024 to 2026, driven by government expenditure and efficient capital investments [28][29] - The fiscal deficit is projected to remain around 44.8 percent of GDP in the medium term, with non-oil domestic revenues expected to be around 10 percent of GDP [29] - The economic outlook faces downside risks, including geopolitical tensions, rising energy prices, and potential disruptions from extreme weather events [30] Special Focus: Leveraging WTO Accession - Timor-Leste's accession to the WTO presents an opportunity to broaden its economic base and enhance trade relations, particularly in niche agricultural exports [33] - Policymakers are tasked with prioritizing reforms to facilitate economic diversification and improve the business climate to attract foreign direct investment [34][35] - The path to leveraging WTO membership hinges on compliance, modernization, and inclusiveness, requiring strategic policy reforms and institutional modernization [35]