有色金属行业周报：海内外宏观政策刺激，铜铝价格持续走强

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the gold, copper, aluminum, tin, and antimony industries [12][13]. Core Views - The report highlights that macroeconomic policies both domestically and internationally are stimulating demand, leading to a sustained increase in copper and aluminum prices [6][12]. - The expectation of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve is anticipated to support gold prices, with a probability of a 50 basis point cut in November at 53.3% [5][12]. - The report indicates that the domestic copper smelting production intensity may continue to decline, while downstream demand is expected to enter a peak season, supporting a strong copper price trend [8][12]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Market Review - The non-ferrous metals sector (Shenwan) saw a weekly increase of 13.06%, with cobalt and lithium leading the sub-sectors [22]. - The top-performing stocks included Hanrui Cobalt and Tianqi Lithium, with significant weekly gains [26]. 2. Macroeconomic and Industry News - The People's Bank of China announced a 0.5 percentage point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio, injecting approximately 1 trillion yuan into the financial market [28]. - U.S. economic indicators showed mixed results, with a service PMI of 55.4, slightly above expectations, while new home sales fell by 4.7% [28][30]. 3. Precious Metals Market Key Data - Gold prices increased to $2,661.85 per ounce, up by $56, reflecting a 2.15% rise [32]. - The SPDR Gold ETF holdings decreased by 110,000 ounces, while SLV Silver ETF holdings increased by 12.77 million ounces [32]. 4. Industrial Metals Data - Copper prices on the LME closed at $9,990 per ton, a 4.83% increase, while SHFE copper prices rose to 78,820 yuan per ton, up 3.93% [7][8]. - Aluminum prices also saw an increase, with domestic electrolytic aluminum priced at 20,330 yuan per ton, reflecting a 2.62% rise [8][9]. 5. Industry Ratings and Investment Strategies - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for gold, copper, aluminum, tin, and antimony industries, citing strong fundamentals and favorable macroeconomic conditions [12][13]. 6. Key Recommended Stocks - The report recommends several stocks, including Zhongjin Gold and Shandong Gold, highlighting their strong market positions and growth potential [13].