Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for China Eastern Airlines [2][4]. Core Views - The airline industry is recovering in 2024, with China Eastern Airlines leading in the recovery of international routes and achieving a basic recovery in fleet turnover and passenger load factor during the summer travel season. The report anticipates an upward trend in profitability as industry supply and demand recover, alongside market-driven ticket pricing and a gradual reduction in capacity growth [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2024, the company reported a net profit of -2.8 billion RMB, continuing to reduce losses year-on-year. The fleet size has increased by nearly 13% compared to 2019, with ASK (Available Seat Kilometers) growing by 10%. The daily aircraft utilization and passenger load factor are close to 2019 levels. Passenger revenue has increased by 3% compared to 2019, while seat revenue has grown by 1% [4][6]. Market Dynamics - The summer travel demand remains strong, with passenger traffic increasing by nearly 18% compared to 2019, and over 12% year-on-year, setting a new historical high. The company is actively restoring international routes, particularly to Japan, Southeast Asia, Europe, and Australia, with international ASK showing positive growth compared to 2019 [4][6]. Future Outlook - The report projects a downward adjustment in net profit forecasts for 2024 and 2025 to 200 million RMB and 4.67 billion RMB, respectively, while introducing a new net profit forecast of 8.8 billion RMB for 2026. The company is expected to continue its capacity reduction planning despite having a substantial order book for new aircraft, which aligns with the long-term constraints of China's airspace [4][6].
中国东方航空股份：暑运周转恢复，期待收益表现