GEELY AUTO(HK:00175) Minsheng Securities·2024-10-02 18:36Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Geely Automobile [2][3] Core Views - Geely's wholesale sales in September reached 202,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 18.5% and a month-on-month increase of 11.4%. Cumulatively, from January to September, total sales reached 1.49 million units, up 29.4% year-on-year [2] - The company's new energy vehicle (NEV) sales in September were 91,134 units, representing a year-on-year increase of 69.7% and a month-on-month increase of 20.7%, with a penetration rate of 45.1% [2] - Geely's brands performed well, with the Galaxy brand selling 29,047 units in September and a cumulative total of 115,100 units from January to September, a year-on-year increase of 249.8% [2] - The launch of the Zeekr 7X SUV and the pre-sale of the new Geely model Star Wish are expected to strengthen the product cycle and drive sales growth [2] - Export sales reached a new high in September, with 39,183 units exported, accounting for 19.4% of total sales, a year-on-year increase of 42.1% [2] - The report forecasts revenues of 224.78 billion, 268.69 billion, and 298.83 billion yuan for 2024-2026, with net profits of 15.4 billion, 12.2 billion, and 15.8 billion yuan respectively [2][3] Summary by Sections Sales Performance - September wholesale sales: 202,000 units, +18.5% YoY, +11.4% MoM - NEV sales in September: 91,134 units, +69.7% YoY, +20.7% MoM, 45.1% penetration rate - Cumulative sales from January to September: 1.49 million units, +29.4% YoY [2] Brand Performance - Galaxy brand: September sales of 29,047 units, cumulative sales of 115,100 units, +249.8% YoY - Zeekr brand: September sales of 21,333 units, cumulative sales of 142,873 units, +81.0% YoY - Lynk brand: September sales of 25,803 units, cumulative sales of 195,603 units, +39.9% YoY [2] Product Launches - Zeekr 7X launched on September 20, with over 20,000 orders in the first week - Star Wish pre-sale started on September 14, expected to launch on October 9 [2] Export Growth - September export sales: 39,183 units, +42.1% YoY - Cumulative exports from January to September: 314,000 units, +61.9% YoY [2] Financial Forecast - Revenue projections for 2024-2026: 224.78 billion, 268.69 billion, 298.83 billion yuan - Net profit projections for 2024-2026: 15.4 billion, 12.2 billion, 15.8 billion yuan - EPS projections: 1.53, 1.21, 1.57 yuan [2][3]