Sunriver Culture Tourism(600576) GF SECURITIES·2024-10-03 07:38Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 6.78 CNY per share, compared to the current price of 5.98 CNY [4]. Core Insights - The company is expanding its presence in the South China tourism market by acquiring a 64% stake in Mangshan Tourism for 307 million CNY, which will increase its ownership to 84% [1]. - The company has signed a 39-year concession agreement for five projects at Danxia Mountain, further enhancing its operational footprint in the region [1]. - The Mangshan Scenic Area has a high forest coverage rate of 95% and was recognized as the first "barrier-free mountain tourism scenic area" in China [1]. - The Danxia Mountain is a national 5A-level scenic area and a UNESCO Global Geopark, indicating its significance in the tourism sector [1]. - The company aims to leverage the synergy between Mangshan and Danxia Mountain to tap into the consumer potential of the Greater Bay Area [1]. Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of 722 million CNY in 2023, with a projected increase to 931 million CNY in 2024, reflecting a growth rate of 29% [3]. - The net profit for 2023 was 151 million CNY, expected to rise to 201 million CNY in 2024, indicating a growth rate of 32.7% [3]. - The EBITDA for 2023 was 278 million CNY, with projections of 370 million CNY for 2024 [3]. - The company anticipates a net profit of 2.01 billion CNY, 2.71 billion CNY, and 3.02 billion CNY for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [1]. Valuation Metrics - The report suggests a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 36 times for 2024, which corresponds to a reasonable value of 6.78 CNY per share [1]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is 0.19 CNY, increasing to 0.28 CNY by 2026 [3].