Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for China National Aviation (China National Airlines) [2][7]. Core Views - The aviation demand shows resilience, and supply-demand dynamics are expected to continue recovering. The company is projected to see a significant increase in profitability as supply-demand conditions improve [6][7]. - The report anticipates a net profit of -2.8 billion RMB for the first half of 2024, indicating a continued reduction in losses compared to the previous year [7]. - The company is adjusting its net profit forecasts for 2024 and 2025 to 0.8 billion and 6.1 billion RMB respectively, while introducing a new forecast of 15 billion RMB for 2026 [7]. Financial Summary - Revenue is expected to rise from 52.9 billion RMB in 2022 to 141.1 billion RMB in 2023, reflecting a 167% increase. Projections for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 169.9 billion, 182.5 billion, and 199.1 billion RMB respectively, with growth rates of 20%, 7%, and 9% [5]. - Gross profit is forecasted to improve from a loss of 29.9 billion RMB in 2022 to a profit of 7.1 billion RMB in 2023, with further increases to 10.8 billion, 19.8 billion, and 31.8 billion RMB in the following years [5]. - Net profit is projected to shift from a loss of 38.6 billion RMB in 2022 to a loss of 1.0 billion RMB in 2023, followed by profits of 0.8 billion, 6.1 billion, and 14.9 billion RMB in 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [5]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is focusing on optimizing its high-quality flight network, which is expected to enhance long-term value despite short-term pressures [7]. - The report highlights that the company’s fleet size has increased by 14% compared to 2019, with a 5% increase in available seat kilometers (ASK), although recovery in wide-body aircraft operations remains slow [7]. - The strategic acquisition of Shandong Airlines is expected to bolster the company’s market position, enhancing its operational capabilities and profitability potential [7].
中国国航更新报告：航空需求有韧性，供需将继续恢复