近期宏观政策解读：拐点之际

Fiscal Policy - The issuance of ultra-long-term special bonds has reached 7520 billion yuan, with 2480 billion yuan remaining to be issued by mid-November, targeting national strategic projects and key security areas[3] - 1500 billion yuan from ultra-long-term special bonds has been allocated to over 4600 equipment renewal projects, and another 1500 billion yuan was fully distributed to local governments for consumer goods trade-in programs in early August[3] - Local special bond issuance accelerated significantly, with 8000 billion yuan issued in August and over 10000 billion yuan in September, reaching 89.6% of the annual issuance target by the end of September[3] - The balance of local government bonds stands at 44.5 trillion yuan, with special bonds accounting for 28.3 trillion yuan, or 63.4% of the total[4] Monetary Policy - The central bank cut the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5 percentage points, releasing approximately 1000 billion yuan in long-term liquidity, and reduced the 7-day reverse repo rate by 20 basis points, with further cuts expected in LPR and deposit rates[5] - New structural monetary policy tools, including a 500 billion yuan securities and fund company swap facility and a 3000 billion yuan stock buyback and shareholding re-lending program, were introduced to support capital markets[5] - The average reserve requirement ratio for banks is now around 6.6%, with potential for further cuts of 0.25-0.5 percentage points by year-end[5] Consumption and Livelihood - The central government allocated over 1546 billion yuan in 2024 for financial assistance to low-income groups, with additional one-time living subsidies being distributed[6] - Reducing existing mortgage rates will benefit 50 million households, or 150 million people, saving approximately 150 billion yuan annually in interest payments, which is expected to boost consumption[6] - Local governments are intensifying efforts to promote consumption, with Shanghai announcing a 500 million yuan service consumption voucher program covering dining, accommodation, movies, and sports[6] Real Estate Market - The central bank introduced six financial support policies for the real estate sector, including unified minimum down payment ratios for first and second homes and initiatives to adjust existing mortgage rates[8] - Key cities like Guangzhou have fully lifted purchase restrictions, while Shanghai and Shenzhen have optimized policies to stabilize market expectations and boost buyer confidence[8]