Guotou Securities·2024-10-06 08:03Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy-A" with a target price of 38.2 CNY per share, maintaining the rating [4][8]. Core Views - The report highlights that domestic sales are driven upward by policies and new vehicle launches, with exports reaching new highs. The company reported a wholesale sales volume of 108,000 units in September, a month-on-month increase of 15% but a year-on-year decrease of 11% [4][8]. - The report anticipates continued growth in monthly sales driven by new models and export strategies, projecting total exports for 2024 to reach 450,000 to 500,000 units [4][8]. Sales Performance Summary - In September, the company sold 30,000 new energy vehicles, a month-on-month increase of 21% and a year-on-year increase of 38%. The fuel vehicle sales were 78,000 units, with a month-on-month increase of 12% but a year-on-year decrease of 22% [4][8]. - The sales breakdown includes: - Tank series: 19,000 units sold, month-on-month increase of 15% and year-on-year increase of 4% [4]. - Haval series: 63,000 units sold, month-on-month increase of 12% and year-on-year decrease of 15% [4]. - Wey brand: 6,755 units sold, month-on-month increase of 125% and year-on-year increase of 165% [4]. - Ora brand: 5,486 units sold, month-on-month increase of 7% and year-on-year decrease of 45% [4]. - Pickup trucks: 14,000 units sold, month-on-month increase of 5% and year-on-year decrease of 16% [4]. - Exports: 44,000 units sold, month-on-month increase of 9% and year-on-year increase of 47% [4]. Financial Forecast Summary - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 13.07 billion CNY, 17.71 billion CNY, and 20.13 billion CNY for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 19.8, 14.6, and 12.9 times [8][9]. - Revenue is expected to grow from 173.21 billion CNY in 2023 to 220.39 billion CNY in 2024, and further to 294.54 billion CNY in 2025 [9][10].