建筑行业2024Q4投资观点：关注“一带一路”及高股息优质央国企机会

Investment Rating - The report rates the construction industry as "stronger than the market" for the next six months, indicating an expected return higher than the benchmark index by more than 5% [31]. Core Insights - The construction sector has underperformed the market, with the Shenwan Construction and Decoration Index rising only 0.7% from January to October 2024, lagging behind the CSI 300 Index by 16.4 percentage points [3][5]. - The overall fundamentals of the industry are weak, with a declining trend in investment growth. Fixed asset investment growth fell from 4.2% at the beginning of the year to 3.4% year-on-year from January to August 2024, while real estate investment decreased by 9.8% [3][7]. - There are opportunities in high-dividend quality central state-owned enterprises (SOEs) as their valuations are low, and with ongoing state-owned enterprise reforms, there is potential for valuation recovery [3][18]. - The "Belt and Road" initiative presents significant opportunities as infrastructure demand in participating countries is expected to accelerate, with China's construction R&D investment leading at 46.07 billion yuan in 2023 [3][28]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance Review - The construction sector has shown weak performance due to overall market sluggishness and investment data slowdown, with significant declines in revenue and net profit growth [3][5]. - Real estate investment has been continuously declining since 2020, with a notable drop of 9.8% from January to August 2024 [7][10]. Focus on Quality Central SOEs - The eight major central SOEs in construction reported a revenue of 7.3 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8%, but faced challenges due to the downturn in the real estate market [13]. - The report suggests selecting low-valuation, high-dividend central SOEs, as their order growth has outperformed the industry [18][20]. Opportunities in the "Belt and Road" Initiative - The report highlights the recovery of economies in "Belt and Road" countries, with infrastructure needs expected to be released rapidly, creating significant international engineering opportunities [26][28]. - China's construction companies are positioned to benefit from high-value projects due to their substantial R&D investments, with six central SOEs ranking among the top ten in A-share R&D spending [28][29].