有色金属行业：推荐铜金铝锡

Investment Rating - The report suggests a focus on two main lines: PE expansion in copper and gold, and EPS improvement in aluminum and tin [3][4][5]. Core Viewpoints - Domestic economic data shows divergence, with weak domestic demand but strong exports. The pressure test from real estate impacts may be nearing an end, with signs of a bottoming out in construction growth [3]. - The resource sector is experiencing a rebound, particularly in gold and copper, while aluminum and tin are also showing significant recovery from their lows [3][4]. - The report emphasizes the importance of the upcoming Q3 earnings reports and the U.S. elections in Q4, suggesting that short-term pullbacks could provide a safety margin for investments [3]. Summary by Sections Main Line One: PE Expansion in Copper and Gold - Gold is recommended as a safe haven investment due to global uncertainties, with strong demand expected to elevate long-term gold prices, particularly in Asia [4]. - Copper supply growth remains low due to disruptions, and a mismatch between smelting capacity growth and mining supply is expected to lead to a temporary decline in refined copper production in Q4 2024 [4][12]. Main Line Two: EPS Improvement in Aluminum and Tin - The aluminum sector is projected to see a gradual increase in prices due to a long-term supply-demand gap, with a forecasted production growth of 2.3% in 2024 [5][15]. - Tin demand is expected to remain strong due to the recovery in semiconductors and photovoltaic installations, with a projected supply deficit in the coming years [18][19].