Guotou Securities·2024-10-06 13:03Investment Rating - The investment rating for BYD is "Buy - A" with a target price of 336.7 CNY for the next six months [3][7]. Core Views - BYD's September sales reached a record high of 418,000 vehicles, representing a year-on-year increase of 46% and a month-on-month increase of 13%. The sales of electric vehicles (EVs) were 165,000 units, up 9% year-on-year and 11% month-on-month, while the sales of DM (dual-mode) vehicles were 253,000 units, up 86% year-on-year and 14% month-on-month [1][2]. - The growth in sales is attributed to the introduction of new models, local government subsidies for vehicle replacements, and the ramp-up of DM5.0 production capacity [1][3]. - The company is expected to see continued growth in both domestic and international markets, with a projected export volume of 400,000 to 500,000 vehicles in 2024 [6][7]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - In September 2024, BYD's sales included 165,000 EVs and 253,000 DM vehicles, with significant contributions from the Dynasty and Ocean series, which sold 205,000 and 194,000 units respectively [1][2]. - The Qin series sold 76,000 units, the Song series sold 89,000 units, and the Han series sold 25,000 units, showing strong year-on-year growth across all models [1][2]. High-End Market Expansion - The sales of high-end models such as the Tang and the newly launched Tengshi Z9GT have shown promising growth, with the Z9GT selling 1,172 units in September [2][6]. - The company is focusing on enhancing its product lineup to improve sales structure and profitability [6][7]. Financial Projections - BYD's projected net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 398.8 billion, 544.5 billion, and 608.1 billion CNY respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 22.4, 16.4, and 14.7 [6][7]. - The company is expected to maintain a strong growth trajectory, with revenue projected to reach 719.9 billion CNY in 2024 [8][10]. Market Position and Strategy - BYD is actively expanding its international presence, with new models being introduced in various markets, including Brazil and Panama [2][6]. - The company is also expected to benefit from a reduction in price competition as joint venture brands begin to withdraw discounts [3][6].