一揽子经济政策出台，白酒有望深度受益

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the food and beverage industry in China [5]. Core Insights - Recent economic policies in China, including lowering the reserve requirement ratio for financial institutions and reducing mortgage rates, are expected to provide strong support to the real economy and stock market, benefiting the liquor sector in the short term and potentially accelerating sales in the medium to long term [2]. - Macro data related to consumption continues to show growth, with retail sales and dining revenues in August 2024 increasing by 2.1% and 3.3% year-on-year, respectively [15][12]. - The price data for liquor shows that the wholesale prices for premium brands like Moutai and Wuliangye are stable, indicating a healthy market environment [14][19]. - Beer production in China saw a decline of 3.3% year-on-year in August 2024, with cumulative production down by 1.2% for the first eight months of the year [21][23]. - Dairy prices remain stable, with fresh milk averaging around 3.14 RMB per kilogram, while prices for milk powder and cheese have shown slight increases [28][35]. Summary by Sections Macro Data Update - Retail sales and dining revenues in August 2024 increased by 2.1% and 3.3% year-on-year, respectively, with the retail sales of tobacco and alcohol rising by 3.1% [15][12]. - M2 money supply grew by 6.3% year-on-year, with social financing scale at 3.03 trillion RMB, showing a slight decrease [12]. Liquor Price Data - As of September 29, 2024, the wholesale prices for Moutai reached approximately 2380 RMB for original boxes and 2290 RMB for loose bottles, while Wuliangye and Guojiao 1573 remained stable at around 960 RMB and 860 RMB, respectively [14][19]. Beer Volume and Price Data - Domestic beer production fell by 3.3% year-on-year in August 2024, with a cumulative decline of 1.2% for the first eight months [21][23]. - The average import price of barley decreased by 16% year-on-year to 259 USD per ton, benefiting from the suspension of anti-dumping duties on Australian barley [23]. Dairy Price Data - The average price of fresh milk was stable at approximately 3.14 RMB per kilogram, with slight increases in milk powder and cheese prices [28][35].