9月29日存量房贷利率下调点评：存量房贷利率调整“快、广、强”，房市量价有望企稳回升

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended," indicating an expected increase in the industry index exceeding the benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 3-6 months [16]. Core Viewpoints - The adjustment of existing mortgage loan rates is characterized by speed, broad coverage, significant benefits, and flexibility in the system. The People's Bank of China has mandated that commercial banks should uniformly implement batch adjustments to existing mortgage rates by October 31, 2024, with rates expected to be no lower than LPR - 30 basis points [1][3]. - The anticipated reduction in existing mortgage rates is expected to lower the weighted average mortgage rate from approximately 4.06% to about 3.55%, resulting in a decrease of about 0.5 percentage points. This adjustment could save borrowers approximately 5,600 yuan annually on a 1 million yuan mortgage over 25 years [1][3]. - The policy is expected to stabilize the housing market, particularly in first-tier cities where purchasing restrictions have been relaxed, potentially leading to a recovery in transaction volumes and prices [1][3]. Summary by Sections Section: Rate Adjustment Progress - The speed of the rate adjustment is rapid, with the announcement made on September 24, 2024, and the implementation details expected by October 12, 2024 [1]. - The scope of the adjustment is broader than previous measures, including both first and second homes, and even those previously adjusted in 2023 [1]. - The benefits of the adjustment are substantial, aligning existing mortgage rates closely with new loan rates, thus reducing the financial burden on borrowers [1]. Section: Impact on Banks - The short-term impact on bank net interest margins is estimated to be a reduction of 1.8 basis points for 2024 and 17 basis points for 2025, with a corresponding decrease in net profit of 1.52% and 14.5% respectively [1][3]. - In the medium to long term, the policy is expected to stabilize banks' net interest margins and maintain overall profitability, as it encourages a synchronized decline in loan and deposit rates [1][3]. Section: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the rapid and significant nature of the mortgage rate adjustments could lead to a recovery in the housing market, which would benefit banks' asset quality and liquidity [1]. - The report recommends specific banks such as 招商银行 (China Merchants Bank), 宁波银行 (Ningbo Bank), and 常熟银行 (Changshu Bank) based on their expected performance in the evolving market conditions [3].