CEA(600115) 国泰君安·2024-10-07 02:23Investment Rating - The investment rating for China Eastern Airlines is maintained at "Buy" [5] Core Views - The airline's fleet turnover and passenger load factor have largely recovered, with expectations for future earnings performance as the industry supply and demand continue to recover [3][4] - The company has abundant resources for its express routes and is strategically increasing international flights, particularly to Japan, Southeast Asia, Europe, and Australia [4] - The net profit forecast for 2024/25 has been adjusted down to 2 billion and 4.7 billion yuan respectively, with a new net profit forecast of 8.8 billion yuan for 2026 [4] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The aviation supply and demand in China is recovering in 2023-2024, with distinct seasonal demand characteristics [4] - The company is actively increasing international flights and has achieved a leading recovery in international operations and fleet turnover [4] Financial Performance - In the first half of 2024, the net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be -2.8 billion yuan, continuing to reduce losses year-on-year [4] - The company's fleet size has grown nearly 13% compared to 2019, with ASK (Available Seat Kilometers) increasing by 10% [4] - Passenger revenue has increased by 3% compared to 2019, while seat revenue has grown by 1% [4] Future Outlook - The summer travel demand in 2024 is expected to remain strong, with passenger traffic increasing nearly 18% compared to 2019 [4] - The company is focusing on restoring international routes during peak seasons, which is expected to drive overall ASK growth [4] - The airline's flexible revenue management is anticipated to accelerate turnover recovery, with future industry supply and demand recovery expected to drive profit recovery [4]