国庆假期宏观综述：全球风云再起，市场影响几何？

Group 1 - The US job market showed strong performance in September, with non-farm employment increasing by 254,000, the highest level since April, indicating a significant improvement in the labor market [5][6][8] - The labor participation rate remained high at 62.7%, and the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, suggesting a tightening labor market that supports the notion of sustained high growth and inflation in the US economy [5][6][8] - The combination of high fiscal deficits and protectionist policies in the US may prolong the current high growth and high inflation environment, impacting the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [5][8][31] Group 2 - Central banks in Europe, Japan, and the UK are acknowledging weak domestic demand and are likely to adopt more accommodative monetary policies, which could further support the US dollar [17][19][31] - The complex geopolitical situation in the Middle East, particularly involving Iran, has led to a surge in oil prices, which may exert upward pressure on inflation in developed economies, including the US [19][20][31] - The recovery in domestic tourism during the National Day holiday in China indicates a potential rebound in consumer spending, although the overall recovery in the real estate market remains cautious [23][27][31] Group 3 - The proactive deleveraging in China is expected to continue, with fiscal expansion being the most effective short-term policy to stimulate sustainable consumer demand [31][32] - The anticipated issuance of 1 trillion yuan in government bonds in the fourth quarter and an increase in the budget deficit to 3.8% are expected to support economic growth [31][32] - The real estate market in China is unlikely to experience a "V" shaped recovery but is expected to stabilize around mid-2025, influenced by long-term structural factors [27][31][32]