通信行业四季度策略暨重点推荐组合：水涨船高，多点开花

Investment Rating - The report rates the communication industry as "Positive" for investment [1] Core Viewpoints - The communication sector is experiencing upward momentum, with policies expected to further catalyze opportunities. The total revenue and net profit of the communication sector have shown steady growth over the past five years, with a projected improvement in the operating conditions for Q3 2024 [3][6] - Recent monetary and capital market support policies have exceeded expectations, which, along with anticipated fiscal policies, are expected to boost economic development, particularly in new productive forces such as AI and industrial internet [3][22] Summary by Sections Market Conditions - The communication sector's revenue for the first half of 2024 reached 1,489.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.5%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 141.4 billion yuan, up 7.0% [6] - Excluding the three major operators and ZTE, the sector's revenue was 416.8 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 12.6% and a net profit of 27.6 billion yuan, up 10.9% [6] Investment Strategy - The investment strategy is summarized as "Rising Tide, Multiple Blossoms": - "Rising Tide": Focus on high-liquidity AI computing power stocks, high-dividend stocks, and leading equipment manufacturers [4][44] - "Multiple Blossoms": Favorable conditions for sectors like railway informatization, satellite internet, and submarine cables [4][44] Sector Performance - The AI computing power, IoT, and operators are performing well, with AI computing power benefiting from global AI development and increased investment in computing infrastructure [10] - The operators are achieving steady growth through cost control and new business development in cloud computing and big data [10] Policy Support - Recent policies from the People's Bank of China and the CSRC have injected liquidity into the capital market, supporting long-term growth [17][22] - The government is promoting the transformation of listed companies towards new productive forces, which is expected to enhance resource allocation efficiency and optimize the competitive landscape [22][23] Valuation and Market Sentiment - The communication sector's valuation remains below the industry median, with a current PE TTM of 32.2 compared to the median of 33.55 [30] - The sector has shown a significant increase in institutional holdings, with a slight rise to 1.6% in Q2 2024 [26]