基础化工行业四季度策略暨重点推荐组合：涨价成长，两翼齐飞

Investment Rating - The industry rating is maintained as "Positive" [6] Core Viewpoints - The chemical raw materials and products industry experienced a revenue of 5.94 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.3%, but profits only increased by 0.6%, indicating a trend of revenue growth without profit growth due to declining product prices [2][11] - Recent government policies, particularly in real estate and consumer goods, are expected to stimulate demand for chemical products, benefiting sectors such as MDI, titanium dioxide, and modified plastics [3][13] - The chemical industry is currently valued at historical lows, with a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 1.85, indicating significant potential for price recovery as domestic demand policies take effect [4][22] Summary by Sections 1. Overcapacity Pressure and PPI Decline - Fixed asset investment growth in the chemical raw materials and products sector was 10% in the first eight months of 2024, while the chemical fiber sector saw a growth of 4.4%, both significantly lower than the highs of 2021-2022 [2][11] - The profit margin in August dropped to 3.85%, the lowest in history, primarily due to continuous price declines [2][11] 2. Stimulus Policies and Demand Recovery - Recent government policies are expected to boost demand for chemical products, particularly in the real estate sector, which is anticipated to improve the demand for MDI, titanium dioxide, and other related products [3][13] - The household appliance and automotive sectors are also expected to benefit from the "old for new" policies, enhancing demand for refrigerants and modified plastics [3][19] 3. Historical Low Valuations and Recovery Potential - The chemical industry is currently at a historical low valuation, with a PB ratio of 1.85, indicating a potential for recovery as market sentiment improves [4][22] - The active fund's chemical heavy positions have decreased from 3.56% in Q3 2023 to 3.26% in Q2 2024, suggesting a low allocation in the sector [22] 4. Price Growth and Growth Opportunities - The report highlights the importance of supply-demand resonance for significant market movements in the chemical sector, with a focus on companies that are expected to outperform in Q3 [5][25] - Specific companies and sectors are recommended for investment, including MDI (Wanhua Chemical), titanium dioxide (Longbai Group), and new materials [5][25][27]