有色及贵金属周报：美就业超预期，软着陆交易升温

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" for non-ferrous metals [2] Core Viewpoints - The unexpected improvement in US non-farm employment and unemployment data has heightened expectations for a soft landing in the economy, leading to a recalibration of interest rate cut expectations. This has implications for gold and silver prices, which may come under pressure. In China, significant supportive policies have been introduced, boosting market confidence, while seasonal demand continues to support industrial metal prices [4][5][8]. Summary by Sections 1. Economic Cycle Assessment - The US non-farm employment unexpectedly rose to 254,000 in September, with the unemployment rate dropping to 4.1%. This has increased optimism about the economy's resilience and soft landing prospects, while also raising concerns about re-inflation and adjusting market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts [5][8]. 2. Industry and Stock Performance - Domestic policies such as interest rate cuts and housing support measures are expected to enhance market confidence. However, the effectiveness of these policies on the real economy will take time to manifest. The traditional peak season is expected to support industrial metal prices through replenishment demand [5][8]. 3. Metal Prices and Inventory 3.1 Industrial Metals - Copper prices on the LME and SHFE were reported at $9,943.5 and ¥78,830 per ton, respectively. The SHFE aluminum price was ¥20,460 per ton, with a slight increase of 0.02% [19][20]. - Inventory levels for copper and aluminum have shown mixed trends, with SHFE copper inventory at 14.2 million tons, reflecting a 0.87% increase [20]. 3.2 Precious Metals - Gold prices on SHFE and COMEX were reported at ¥596.72 per gram and $2,673.20 per ounce, respectively, with a weekly decline of 0.49% for SHFE gold [22][23]. - Silver prices on SHFE and COMEX were reported at ¥7,793 per kilogram and $32.45 per ounce, respectively, with SHFE silver experiencing a 0.92% decline [22][23]. 4. Macro Data Tracking - The manufacturing PMI in China for September was reported at 49.80%, indicating a slight improvement, while the US manufacturing PMI was at 47.20% [29]. 5. Recommended Stocks - Recommended stocks include Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum, with beneficiaries including Western Mining, China Aluminum, Tianshan Aluminum, Shenhuo Co., Yun Aluminum, Shandong Gold, and Shanjin International [5][10].