交通运输：顺周期买航空，超额收益明显

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [2][4]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant increase in the A-share market, with the Shanghai Composite Index, CSI 300 Index, and ChiNext Index rising by 12.81%, 15.70%, and 22.71% respectively during the week of September 23-27. The aviation transportation sector, characterized by strong consumer attributes, saw a rise of 16.26%, outperforming the transportation sector and major indices [4]. - The report emphasizes the cyclical nature of aviation stocks, which have historically provided excess returns during bull markets. For instance, the aviation transportation index recorded maximum gains of 866%, 327%, and 410% during previous bull markets, significantly outperforming the CSI 300 Index [4]. - A projected supply-demand mismatch in the aviation industry over the next 2-3 years is anticipated, with demand growth expected to return to natural levels while supply growth remains stable. The report notes that from 2020 to the end of 2023, the industry is expected to add 368 aircraft, with a compound annual growth rate of 2.43%, which is significantly lower than previous growth rates [4]. - The report indicates a recovery in the aviation sector after four years of losses, with companies gradually narrowing their losses. It highlights that Spring Airlines and Juneyao Airlines have achieved stable profitability, while larger airlines are expected to see a turnaround in performance soon [4]. - Investment recommendations include focusing on airlines with strong recovery potential, such as China West Air, Spring Airlines, and Juneyao Airlines, as well as the three major airlines that have historically led in bull markets [4]. Summary by Sections Key Company Status - The report lists eight publicly traded companies in the aviation sector, with a total industry market capitalization of 479,906 million and a circulating market capitalization of 367,301 million [2]. Performance Metrics - The report provides earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for major airlines, indicating a positive outlook for companies like Spring Airlines and Juneyao Airlines, which are expected to show significant earnings growth in the coming years [4]. Market Trends - The report discusses the recent trends in passenger transport volumes, noting a 12% increase in overall passenger transport compared to 2019 levels, with domestic and international passenger volumes recovering to 115% and 85% of 2019 levels respectively [11]. Utilization Rates - The report highlights that aircraft utilization rates during peak seasons in 2024 have exceeded 2019 levels, indicating a strong recovery in demand [10]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the aviation sector is poised for continued growth, driven by improving macroeconomic conditions, favorable oil prices, and seasonal demand during holidays [4].