电子行业四季度策略：势如破竹

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [6] Core Viewpoints - The technology sector is a prominent banner for growth stocks, with a focus on sectors benefiting from policy support and significant growth potential, such as semiconductor equipment and domestic computing power [2][3] - The electronic industry is driven by terminal product innovation, supply chain autonomy, and a recovery in macroeconomic conditions, with AI technology catalyzing a new replacement cycle for consumer electronics [11][20] - Domestic support for the semiconductor industry and ongoing export controls from abroad are expected to persist, with diminishing marginal impacts on the industry fundamentals [3][25][27] Summary by Sections 1. Business Trends: Terminal Innovation and Domestic Resonance - AI innovation and domestic substitution are the main driving forces for the semiconductor industry, with a potential new replacement cycle for consumer electronics on the horizon [11][12] - The performance outlook for Q3 2024 indicates continued growth in the semiconductor industry, driven by improving market conditions and replenishment demand [21][24] 2. Macro Dynamics: Domestic Support and Overseas Controls - The Chinese government remains committed to supporting semiconductor localization through various policies, including energy efficiency requirements for new data centers [25][28] - The impact of past domestic policy changes and overseas export controls on the industry is gradually diminishing, with expectations of tighter trade policies by the end of the year [27][28] 3. Financial Dynamics: Stable Institutional Holdings and Short-term Gains - Institutional holdings in the electronic sector have slightly increased, maintaining around 30% overall, with the electronic industry experiencing a 30.1% increase in stock prices from September 23 to September 30, 2024 [4][31][33] - The semiconductor sub-sector has shown significant gains, with leading stocks rebounding sharply due to improved market conditions [33][36] 4. Key Combinations - Recommended stocks include Cambricon (leading domestic AI chip), Huahong (wafer foundry leader), and Xinwangda (battery leader in the mobile phone sector) [5][42] - The focus is on sectors with strong growth potential and those that have experienced significant price declines but possess solid operational fundamentals [41][42]