国防装备行业周报（2024年9月第5周）：国防军工拐点向上、价值重塑；聚焦船舶、飞机、低空经济、商业航天

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The defense industry is experiencing an upward turning point and value reshaping, with a focus on shipbuilding, aircraft, low-altitude economy, and commercial aerospace [1] - The defense industry index increased by 26.70% from September 23 to September 30, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 4.78 percentage points [1] - The industry is expected to enter a new upward cycle in the second half of 2024, with improving fundamentals as disruptive factors gradually diminish [1] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The defense index rose by 10.91% in the past week, ranking 9th among 31 first-level industries [5] - Year-to-date, the defense index has increased by 2.44%, lagging behind the Shanghai Composite Index by 9.7 percentage points [5] Key Company Profit Forecasts and Valuations - Key companies in the defense sector include China Shipbuilding, China Heavy Industry, and AVIC, with varying market capitalizations and profit forecasts for 2024 [9][10] - For example, China Shipbuilding has a market cap of 186.8 billion yuan and is expected to achieve a net profit of 53.25 billion yuan in 2024 [9] Industry Dynamics - Recent significant events include the successful launch of an intercontinental ballistic missile by the Chinese Rocket Force, showcasing strategic deterrence capabilities [1][11] - Ongoing regional conflicts, such as missile launches from Iran towards Israel, are expected to increase attention on the defense sector [1][13] Key Stock Pool - The core stock pool includes companies like China Shipbuilding, China Heavy Industry, and AVIC, with additional focus on emerging sectors like low-altitude economy and commercial aerospace [1][2]