建筑材料行业投资策略报告：中央强化稳地产表述，板块迎来底部修复

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Hold" [1] Core Viewpoints - The central government has reinforced the demand for stabilizing the real estate market, with policies being progressively implemented. The People's Bank of China announced a reduction in reserve requirements, interest rates, and down payment ratios on September 24, followed by a Politburo meeting on September 26 that emphasized the need to promote stability in the real estate market [4][5] - The real estate market is expected to see positive impacts from ongoing policy support, with further measures anticipated after October to enhance market conditions. Although supply and demand remain weak, expectations have improved, leading to potential valuation recovery in the industry [7] - The report is optimistic about a rebound in the building materials sector, citing historical instances where policy shifts led to significant price increases in building materials [10][12] Summary by Sections Central Government Policies - The central government has made clear statements regarding the need to stabilize the economy and real estate market, with specific measures to control new construction, optimize existing stock, and improve quality [5][6] - Recent policy adjustments include relaxing purchase restrictions in major cities, which are expected to positively influence market dynamics [4][5] Market Conditions - Current indicators show weak demand for building materials, with cement prices and float glass prices declining. The overall performance of the building materials sector is under pressure, with expectations of weak results reflected in the upcoming quarterly reports [7] - Despite the weak reality, valuations in the sector are at historically low levels, suggesting potential for recovery as liquidity improves and government policies continue to support the market [7] Historical Performance - The report reviews past policy shifts and their impacts on the building materials sector, noting significant price increases following policy announcements in 2022. For instance, after the April 2022 Politburo meeting, the building materials index saw cumulative gains of 3.8%, 7.6%, 15.6%, and 1.5% over subsequent weeks [10][12] - The report highlights that the consumption building materials index experienced even greater gains, indicating a strong correlation between policy support and market performance [10][12]