半导体行业周跟踪：政策利好+基本面改善，半导体有望迎大反弹机会

Investment Rating - The semiconductor industry is rated as "Buy" with expectations of significant growth in the next 6 months, indicating a potential increase of over 20% relative to market benchmarks [21]. Core Insights - The semiconductor industry is showing positive momentum, with expectations for a new growth cycle driven by favorable policies and improving fundamentals. Recent macroeconomic measures, including interest rate cuts and new monetary policy tools, have boosted market confidence [2]. - In August 2024, global semiconductor sales reached $53.1 billion, marking a year-on-year increase of 20.6% and a month-on-month increase of 3.5%, continuing a trend of substantial growth [2][4]. Summary by Sections Semiconductor Sector Performance - The semiconductor index saw a significant increase of 15.5% during the week of September 30 to October 4, with the Hang Seng Technology Index rising by 17.4% [2]. - The sales growth in the semiconductor sector is led by the Americas (43.9% growth), China (19.2% growth), and the Asia-Pacific region (17.1% growth) [2]. Storage Sector - Storage module and chip manufacturers experienced price increases ranging from 14% to 24%, with Micron's Q4 revenue reaching $7.75 billion, a 93% year-on-year increase [4][6]. - Micron anticipates the HBM market will grow from $4 billion in 2023 to $25 billion by 2025, with a strong outlook for PC sales driven by AI [4]. Analog and RF Sectors - The analog sector is expected to see a rebound in demand due to AI, despite a projected decline in sales volume for Q3 [6]. - Domestic RF companies have shown significant price increases, with a focus on the mobile supply chain as Q4 approaches [6]. Equipment and Manufacturing - The equipment sector saw substantial gains, with companies like Zhongwei and Northern Huachuang increasing by 20% and 10%, respectively [6]. - The wafer foundry sector is also performing well, with companies like SMIC and Huahong Semiconductor experiencing significant stock price increases [7]. Packaging and Testing - The packaging and testing sector has shown notable stock price increases, with companies like Weicai Technology and Changdian Technology rising by 20% and 10%, respectively [7]. - TSMC's collaboration with advanced packaging firms indicates strong demand for advanced packaging technologies [7].