美国地产2024年8月跟踪：二手房价格中位数增速放缓，新房开工量回升

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the U.S. real estate sector [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights a slowdown in the growth rate of median prices for existing homes, while new home starts are on the rise. This is attributed to the expectation of continued interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in the coming months, which is expected to enhance buyer confidence and stimulate demand [1][43]. - The overall housing supply remains tight, with a reported housing shortage of approximately 1.5 million units in the U.S. [29]. Summary by Sections Mortgage Market - As of September 19, 2024, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate in the U.S. is 6.09%, down 110 basis points from September 21, 2023. The mortgage purchase index and refinancing index are at 146.1 and 941.4, respectively, indicating a significant increase in refinancing activity due to lower rates [3][5]. Existing Home Market - The inventory of existing homes as of August 2024 stands at 1.35 million units, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 22.7% and a month-over-month increase of 0.7%. The median price for existing homes is $416,700, showing a year-over-year growth of 3.1% but a month-over-month decline of 1.1% [9][12]. - The time on the market for existing homes has lengthened, with a median of 53 days for listings in August 2024 [15]. New Home Market - The inventory of new homes available for sale is 467,000 units as of August 2024, which is a 9.1% increase year-over-year. The months of supply for new homes is approximately 7.8 months, slightly up from July [17][23]. - New home sales in August 2024 are at 716,000 units, a year-over-year increase of 9.8% but a month-over-month decrease of 4.7%. The median price for new homes is $420,600, down 4.6% year-over-year [26][23]. - Developer confidence has shown signs of recovery, with a decrease in the proportion of developers offering price reductions from 32% in September [23][43]. Market Dynamics - The report suggests that while existing home sales continue to decline, the new home market may experience a surge in sales due to improved buyer purchasing power and a narrowing price gap between new and existing homes [43].