建筑行业第367期周报：乘风飞翔，未来股价节奏、空间测算、龙头选择

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the construction industry, consistent with the previous rating [2]. Core Insights - The construction industry is expected to benefit from ongoing fiscal and real estate policy support, with leading companies having a price-to-book (PB) ratio of less than 1 and a dividend yield greater than 2.25% showing significant upside potential of 19-105% [2][3]. - The report highlights that the fourth quarter is a peak season for construction, with government investment policies expected to accelerate [2][9]. - The report emphasizes the importance of selecting leading companies with strong industry trends and low earnings baselines for Q3 2023, particularly those with high dividend yields [3][12]. Summary by Sections Recent Key Reports - The report references several recent analyses, including historical reviews of construction market cycles and recommendations for stocks with favorable PB and dividend yield metrics [2][9][12]. Key Company Recommendations - Recommended companies include China State Construction, China Energy Engineering, and China Communications Construction, all of which exhibit strong order growth and favorable financial metrics [5][16]. - Specific metrics for recommended companies include: - China State Construction: PB 0.59, dividend yield 4.39% [6]. - China Energy Engineering: PB 0.98, dividend yield 1.08% [5]. - China Communications Construction: PB 0.57, dividend yield 3.03% [5]. Macro/Micro Data - The report notes significant increases in infrastructure investment, with water management investment up 33% and electricity engineering investment up 23.1% year-on-year [15][16]. - The report also highlights a narrowing decline in real estate investment, indicating a potential stabilization in the sector [15][16]. Future Price Space Calculation - The report provides a detailed analysis of potential price increases for leading companies, with examples showing significant upside based on historical PB ratios and market conditions [3][10]. - For instance, China Railway has a current PB of 0.57, with potential upside of 105% based on projected earnings growth and market conditions [3][10]. Dividend Yield and Earnings Growth - The report emphasizes the importance of high dividend yields and low PB ratios, recommending companies that meet these criteria for investment [4][12]. - Companies like Tunnel Engineering and Shanghai Construction are highlighted for their strong earnings growth despite recent challenges [4][16].