基钦周期再开启或推动金属行业配置属性优化：利率拐点议周期

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the metal industry, suggesting an optimization of allocation attributes due to the potential onset of a new Kitchin cycle [6][12][18]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the metal industry is currently in a high prosperity cycle, with overall profitability improving and average gross margins rising to 11.4% as of H1 2024 [6][12]. - The report emphasizes the structural changes in gold pricing logic, indicating a shift from purely financial attributes to a stronger focus on supply and demand dynamics [19][20]. - The copper market is showing signs of recovery, with demand expected to stabilize and expand, supported by seasonal demand peaks and improved operational conditions in downstream industries [29][30]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Economic Cycle and Commodity Performance - The report discusses the performance of major commodities during previous interest rate cut cycles, noting significant price increases for oil, gold, copper, and soybeans, influenced by supply-demand dynamics and geopolitical factors [5][6]. - It outlines the changes in the Federal Reserve's balance sheet, indicating a transition from balance sheet reduction to expansion, which typically supports commodity prices [12][13]. Section 2: Metal Industry Profitability and Operational Efficiency - The metal industry's average return on equity (ROE) has increased from 2.49% to 5.50%, and return on assets (ROA) has risen from 0.98% to 2.31% from Q1 2021 to H1 2024, reflecting enhanced profitability [6][12]. - The report notes a decrease in the industry's debt ratio from 55.24% to 51.32%, indicating improved operational efficiency [6][12]. Section 3: Gold Market Dynamics - The report states that gold has entered a structurally tight supply state, with global mine production growth slowing significantly, leading to a resilient price outlook [19][20]. - It highlights that central bank purchases of gold have surged, contributing to a shift in demand dynamics and supporting higher gold prices [19][20]. Section 4: Copper Market Outlook - The report forecasts a recovery in copper demand, with expectations of increased consumption driven by seasonal factors and improved economic conditions [29][30]. - It notes that copper inventories have begun to decline, indicating a potential tightening of supply in the near term [29][30]. Section 5: Aluminum and Bauxite Market Trends - The report discusses the structural contraction in domestic bauxite supply in China, with a significant increase in import dependency, which may impact production costs and pricing [33][34]. - It emphasizes the strong correlation between bauxite prices and aluminum production costs, suggesting that rising bauxite prices could enhance the valuation and investment appeal of the aluminum sector [34]. Section 6: Platinum Market Insights - The report indicates a potential structural shortage in the global platinum market, driven by concentrated supply sources and increasing demand from various sectors [35][36]. - It highlights China's high dependency on platinum imports, which poses risks to supply stability and pricing [36].