白酒行业24Q4策略暨24Q3业绩前瞻：再提白酒投资大年

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the liquor industry [4] Core Viewpoints - The liquor sector is expected to experience a significant upward trend, driven by recent policy catalysts and a release of previously pessimistic sentiment. The report anticipates a three-phase price increase in the liquor sector [1][3] - The liquor industry is projected to achieve a total sales volume of approximately 800 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of around 10% [9][10] - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on strong-performing companies in the upcoming Q3 earnings reports, particularly those with robust fundamentals [2][3] Summary by Sections 1. Operating Conditions - The liquor industry is experiencing a slowdown in Q3 2024, with a focus on companies that demonstrate strong performance amidst this deceleration. The report highlights that high-end liquor is facing some pressure, while regional leaders are performing relatively well [2][13] - The report notes that the market is witnessing a concentration of market share among leading companies, with a projected CAGR of 7.32% from 2020 to 2025, leading to a market size of over 830 billion yuan by 2025 [9][10] 2. Policy and Financial Environment - Recent macroeconomic policies are expected to boost consumer confidence and spending, particularly in the food and beverage sector. The report outlines various financial measures aimed at stimulating economic growth [17][19] - The food and beverage sector's holding ratio has decreased to 5.47% in Q2 2024, indicating a historically low level of investment in this sector [19][20] 3. Q4 Strategy - The report suggests a shift towards an offensive investment strategy, recommending a focus on leading companies priced between 300-400 yuan, such as Shanxi Fenjiu and Gujing Gongjiu [3][19] - The anticipated three-phase price increase in the liquor sector is characterized by an initial focus on broad market recovery, followed by a concentration on top-performing companies as Q3 earnings reports are released [1][3] 4. Earnings Forecast - The report provides earnings forecasts for various liquor companies, indicating that leading regional brands are expected to show strong revenue and profit growth in Q3 2024 [15][16]