国君交运周观察：油价波动不改价值，增持航空与油运

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for both the airline and oil shipping sectors [1][2]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the demand for air travel remains resilient, with expectations for record passenger flow during the National Day holiday. The supply-demand balance is expected to continue recovering, aided by a decrease in oil prices [2][3]. - In the oil shipping sector, the report suggests a cautious approach to seasonal speculation, while positioning for a potential super bull market in oil shipping due to anticipated increases in crude oil production [3]. Summary by Sections Airline Sector - The report emphasizes that the supply-demand dynamics in the airline industry are gradually recovering, with passenger load factors remaining high. The forecast for 2023-2024 indicates a steady recovery in fleet turnover and passenger load factors, with profitability expected to improve as demand remains robust [3]. - The report projects that the international flight schedule will continue to drive supply-demand recovery, and a decrease in oil prices will enhance profitability during peak seasons. It recommends maintaining "Overweight" ratings for China National Aviation, Juneyao Airlines, China Southern Airlines, Spring Airlines, and China Eastern Airlines [3][12]. Oil Shipping Sector - The report advises a reduction in seasonal speculation and suggests positioning for a super bull market in oil shipping. It notes that shipping companies are showing a stronger willingness to maintain prices as the peak season approaches, with recent rates for Middle East to China VLCC (Very Large Crude Carrier) exceeding $37,000 per day [3][11]. - The report reiterates that increased crude oil production will benefit oil shipping demand, and a potential drop in oil prices could lead to higher-than-expected demand due to inventory replenishment. It maintains "Overweight" ratings for China Merchants Energy Shipping, COSCO Shipping Energy Transportation, China Merchants Industry Holdings, and China Ship Leasing [3][12].