煤炭海外研究框架之二：印度煤炭缺口扩张，搅局中长期国际市场

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the coal industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment in this sector [2][4]. Core Insights - The report suggests that India's coal gap may be larger than market expectations, leading to intensified competition with China in the international coal market, which could affect China's import ceiling and international prices for key coal types [3][4]. - The report emphasizes that with the certainty of increasing demand in India, international prices for high-calorific thermal coal and quality coking coal are likely to trend upwards [4][7]. Summary by Sections 1. Investment Overview - The coal industry is facing a lack of significant domestic supply elasticity, while overseas supply remains opaque, with many critical points overlooked by the market. The report aims to provide a clearer view of the current state and future prospects of overseas coal, particularly focusing on the Indian market [7]. 2. Modi's Re-election and Continuation of "Make in India" Strategy - Modi's re-election in June 2024 is expected to sustain the "Make in India" strategy, which has been pivotal in boosting the economy since 2014. This strategy aims to create a high-efficiency business environment and achieve rapid economic growth [11][12]. - India's GDP growth has been robust, with a CAGR of 7.17% from 2013 to 2023, and is projected to continue at rates above the global average [12][14]. 3. Indian Coal Industry: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The coal sector is crucial in India's energy structure, with coal accounting for over 75% of electricity generation. The report notes a significant supply-demand imbalance due to rapid economic growth and climate factors [19][20]. - The report highlights that India's coal demand is projected to reach 1.45 billion tons by FY30, with a CAGR of around 5%, although this growth rate is lower than GDP growth [31][32]. 4. Overlooked Aspects of India's Coal Gap - The report argues that the market has underestimated India's coal demand, particularly in light of extreme weather conditions and the rising energy needs of the manufacturing sector [31][36]. - Historical data shows that actual coal demand has consistently exceeded government forecasts since 2020, primarily due to underestimations in electricity coal demand [32][34]. 5. Recommendations for Companies - The report continues to recommend leading dividend-paying companies such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and China Coal Energy, as well as high-quality coking coal enterprises like Huabei Mining and Pingmei Shenma Energy [4][8].