Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the coal industry, consistent with the previous rating [2] Core Viewpoints - The report suggests that a series of policy measures are expected to reverse market expectations for the economy in 2025, emphasizing the need for the coal sector to "grasp cyclical elasticity" and not overlook the core of dividends [2][3] - The report highlights that the price elasticity of coking coal is greater than that of thermal coal in a potentially improving economic cycle, and that long-term funds entering the market should not ignore high dividend yields [3][8] Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on the coking coal sector, suggesting leading companies such as Huabei Mining, Pingmei Shenma, Lu'an Environmental Energy, Shougang Resources, Hengyuan Coal Power, and Shanxi Coking Coal [10] - It also suggests that Yanzhou Coal Mining and Shanmei International will benefit from economic stabilization, along with Xinji Energy, which integrates coal and electricity [10] - The report continues to recommend dividend-focused companies like China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and China Coal Energy [10] Policy Measures Impact - On September 24, the central bank announced a comprehensive easing policy, including a 50 basis point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio, which is expected to release approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term funds [14][16] - The Politburo meeting on September 26 discussed economic issues, indicating a strong commitment to addressing current economic challenges and stabilizing growth expectations [14][18] Coking Coal Elasticity - The report notes that after three months of declines, coking coal stocks have largely reflected market pessimism, with prices dropping from 2,770 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year to a low of 1,680 yuan/ton by the end of August, a decline of over 1,000 yuan/ton [3][21] - It is observed that the bottom for downstream steel demand has become clearer, with signs of recovery in iron production and profitability [21] Dividend Core - The report emphasizes that with the recent interest rate cuts and easing monetary policy, high dividend stocks are becoming increasingly attractive, particularly those with yields above 5% such as China Shenhua and Shaanxi Coal [9][25] - The central bank's introduction of stock repurchase and loan policies is expected to encourage companies to increase their dividend payouts [25][27]
煤炭：把握周期弹性
Guotai Junan Securities·2024-10-07 06:18