家电行业2024Q4投资观点：以旧换新促内销，扬帆出海求增量

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the home appliance industry, driven by the "old-for-new" policy and strong export demand, indicating a potential for significant growth in the coming months [2][3]. Core Viewpoints - The "old-for-new" policy has effectively boosted domestic demand for home appliances, with notable increases in sales volumes for air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines, showing year-on-year growth of 0.8%, 1.1%, and 3.1% respectively for domestic sales from January to July 2024 [2]. - Export sales have also seen substantial growth, with air conditioner exports increasing by 31.4%, refrigerators by 21.9%, and washing machines by 20.8% during the same period [2]. - The market sentiment has shifted positively, with expectations for strong performance during the upcoming Double Eleven shopping festival, supported by favorable policies and promotional activities [3]. Summary by Sections Domestic Sales - The "old-for-new" policy is a key driver for short-term growth in domestic sales, with the government providing subsidies of 15% for energy-efficient appliances and an additional 5% for top-tier products, capped at 2000 yuan per item [4]. - The home appliance market is approaching saturation, but there remains potential for growth in air conditioning due to multi-unit ownership [6]. Export Sales - China's home appliance manufacturing capacity leads globally, with significant export production planned for air conditioners, projected to reach 644 million units in mid-2023, reflecting a 51% increase year-on-year [9]. - The export production for air conditioners is expected to continue growing, with forecasts of 767 million units in November and 816 million units in December 2023, indicating a robust demand for overseas markets [9]. Emerging Trends - The report highlights a shift towards globalization, high-end, and diversified development among home appliance companies, with new product categories like multi-functional cookers and air fryers gaining traction [12]. - The small appliance sector is anticipated to maintain a positive growth trend as consumer preferences evolve and product offerings expand [12].