轻工行业观点：布局家居、造纸内需顺周期

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the home furnishing and paper industries, indicating a potential recovery in demand and profitability [1][12]. Core Viewpoints - The investment focus is on consumer goods, particularly essential items showing strong growth resilience, with domestic brands gaining market share from foreign brands [2]. - In the home furnishing sector, while short-term growth is hindered by real estate demand contraction, recent policy stimuli are expected to support a rebound in demand [3][8]. - The paper industry is anticipated to see improved profitability as demand recovers and paper prices rise due to low inventory levels and easing cost pressures [12]. Summary by Relevant Sections Home Furnishing - Recent real estate policies have slightly improved sales momentum, with a reduction in the decline of sales area in July and August [3]. - The implementation of favorable financial policies, such as lowering down payment ratios and interest rates, is expected to enhance consumer confidence and benefit the home furnishing sector [8]. - Various local governments have introduced "old-for-new" policies to stimulate consumption in home furnishings, providing subsidies for renovations and new purchases [11]. Paper Industry - The paper industry faced significant pressure in the first half of the year due to low prices and high raw material costs, but a recovery in demand is expected to stabilize profitability [12]. - The report highlights that cultural paper shows strong performance stability, while white card paper and corrugated paper have higher profit elasticity due to their consumption correlation [12].