农林牧渔行业近况分析：生猪养殖景气持续性好，不宜过度悲观

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the pig farming industry, suggesting that the current market conditions are not overly pessimistic [1]. Core Insights - The breeding stock of sows has decreased, alleviating the pressure of oversupply in the market. As of the end of Q2 2024, the breeding sow inventory was 40.38 million heads, a year-on-year decrease of 2.59 million heads, or 6.0% [2]. - Pig prices have stabilized at high levels, with prices maintaining above 18 yuan per kilogram since June and peaking above 20 yuan in August [2]. - The price of piglets has rapidly declined, dropping below the cost price of 350 yuan, which may suppress further capacity growth [2]. - The total pig inventory at the end of Q2 was 415.33 million heads, a year-on-year decrease of 1.98 million heads, or 4.6% [6]. - The average profit per pig sold reached 608 yuan in August, indicating improved cash flow for farming households [19]. Summary by Sections Supply Side Analysis - The breeding sow inventory peaked at 43.90 million heads in December 2022 and has been on a downward trend since then, with a notable decrease in Q4 2023 [2]. - The national pig inventory showed a slight increase in Q2 2024, but overall levels remain low compared to previous years, limiting the potential for increased market supply in the latter half of the year [6]. - The market is expected to see a supply gap in mid-2024 due to significant disease outbreaks affecting pig populations [6]. Price Trends - The wholesale price of pork has shown resilience, with a notable increase in consumer prices reflecting a recovery in demand [19]. - The report indicates a cautious optimism regarding consumer confidence, which may improve as the peak pork consumption season approaches [19]. Financial Health of Companies - The report highlights that listed pig farming companies are facing high debt levels, which may restrict their capacity for growth [15]. - Despite the financial pressures, the overall profitability in the pig farming sector has shown signs of recovery, with major companies reporting improved operational conditions [19].