氢能洞察系列研究之一：绿氨掺烧—煤改新政有望打开绿氢绿氨发展空间

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive investment outlook for the green ammonia sector, indicating potential growth opportunities driven by policy support and technological advancements [2][11]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the urgent need to explore the green fuel properties of ammonia, highlighting its potential as a zero-carbon fuel that can significantly reduce reliance on fossil fuels and lower carbon emissions [3][4]. - Green ammonia is positioned as a key component in the transition to low-carbon coal power generation, with the government mandating a minimum blending ratio of 10% green ammonia in coal-fired power plants [11][13]. - The cost competitiveness of green ammonia is improving, with production costs projected to decrease as renewable energy prices decline, making it a viable alternative to traditional gray ammonia [21][25]. Summary by Sections 1. Green Fuel Properties of Ammonia - Ammonia (NH3) is recognized for its wide applications and zero-carbon combustion characteristics, making it a promising candidate for reducing carbon emissions in various sectors [3][4]. - China is the largest producer and consumer of synthetic ammonia, with a significant portion used in fertilizer production, indicating a potential shift towards fuel applications in the future [4][5]. 2. Green Ammonia Co-Firing as a Pathway to Energy Efficiency and Emission Reduction - The co-firing of green ammonia is identified as a critical strategy for achieving low-carbon transformation in coal power generation, supported by national policies [11][13]. - Co-firing green ammonia can effectively reduce CO and CO2 emissions, leveraging ammonia's high energy density and combustion efficiency [15][18]. 3. Cost Competitiveness of Green Ammonia in Fuel Applications - The report outlines that the production cost of green ammonia is becoming competitive with gray ammonia, particularly as carbon pricing increases and renewable energy costs decrease [21][25]. - Current estimates suggest that the total cost of producing green ammonia is around 2415 RMB per ton, while gray ammonia costs approximately 2536 RMB per ton under certain market conditions [21][25]. 4. Green Ammonia Co-Firing Boosting Synthetic Ammonia Demand - China's synthetic ammonia production is heavily reliant on coal, with a significant portion of the market expected to transition towards green ammonia as new projects are developed [33][35]. - The report notes that over 58 green ammonia projects are planned in China, with a total capacity exceeding 1188 million tons, indicating a robust growth trajectory for the sector [33][37]. 5. Green Hydrogen Growth Potential Driven by Green Ammonia - The development of green ammonia is expected to catalyze the growth of green hydrogen, as both are interconnected in the renewable energy landscape [5][19]. - The report highlights that advancements in green hydrogen production technologies will further enhance the viability of green ammonia as a sustainable fuel source [19][27].