航空机场10月投资策略：利好催化不断，持续看多航空

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the aviation sector, specifically recommending an "Overweight" position [3]. Core Insights - The aviation sector is expected to benefit from continuous positive catalysts, with a favorable macroeconomic environment and improving supply-demand dynamics. The report highlights the potential for excess returns in the aviation sector due to recent favorable oil prices and exchange rates [7]. - The report emphasizes the recovery of flight volumes to pre-pandemic levels, with overall flight volumes in September 2024 reaching 101% of the same period in 2019 [19]. - The expansion of visa-free entry policies is anticipated to boost foreign demand for travel to China, further supporting the aviation sector's recovery [16]. Summary by Sections September Market Performance and Highlights - The transportation sector increased by 16.06% in September, underperforming the broader market. The aviation and airport sectors rose by 17.23% and 17.28%, respectively, with no stocks declining [6][13]. - Key performers included 吉祥航空 (+30.97%), 华夏航空 (+25.17%), and 春秋航空 (+22.44%) [12]. Industry Fundamentals and Trends - The report notes a weak market demand during the Mid-Autumn Festival due to typhoon impacts, with passenger transport volume reaching 5.069 million during the holiday period, a slight increase of 1.2% compared to 2019 but a decrease of 21.7% compared to 2023 [14]. - Fuel surcharges decreased starting October 5, 2024, which is expected to lower ticket prices and stimulate travel demand during the off-peak season [14]. - The expansion of visa-free policies for several countries is expected to enhance foreign travel to China, with significant increases in inbound foreign visitors reported [16]. Operational Data of Listed Airlines and Airports - In August 2024, the six major listed airlines collectively added 11 aircraft, with significant increases in passenger capacity and turnover [29][31]. - Passenger volumes at major airports such as Shenzhen Bao'an and Shanghai Pudong have recovered to 119% and 111% of 2019 levels, respectively [37]. - Flight volumes at these airports also showed recovery, with Shenzhen Bao'an and Shanghai Pudong reaching 120% and 113% of 2019 levels, respectively [37]. October Investment Outlook - The report suggests a continued bullish outlook for the aviation sector, driven by favorable macroeconomic policies and improving operational metrics for airlines [7]. - Key recommendations include focusing on 华夏航空, 春秋航空, and 吉祥航空, which are expected to show strong earnings recovery [7].