商业贸易行业信息点评：多地发放消费券，有望提振终端消费

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the consumption sector, particularly highlighting the potential benefits from government-issued consumption vouchers [4][5]. Core Insights - The issuance of consumption vouchers across various provinces is expected to stimulate terminal consumption, with significant allocations in cities like Shanghai and Sichuan [4][9]. - Historical data indicates that consumption vouchers have effectively leveraged consumer spending, with Shanghai's 2022 program achieving a leverage ratio of 3.67 times and a redemption rate of 97% [5]. - The report emphasizes that the consumption voucher mechanism is more effective than direct cash transfers in stimulating consumer spending [5]. Summary by Relevant Sections Consumption Vouchers - Various provinces are launching consumption voucher programs, with Shanghai allocating 500 million yuan for sectors like dining and accommodation [4][9]. - Sichuan plans to distribute over 400 million yuan in vouchers, focusing on home improvement and local products [4][9]. - Heilongjiang is set to issue approximately 54.3 million yuan in vouchers targeting automotive and household goods [4][9]. Historical Effectiveness - Past experiences show that consumption vouchers have successfully driven consumer spending, with Anhui's 2023 issuance of 1.87 billion yuan leading to over 36 billion yuan in consumption [5]. - The report cites a potential consumption boost of 1.2 to 2.4 billion yuan from Shanghai's current voucher program, representing 0.8% to 1.6% of the city's annual accommodation and dining retail sales [5]. Sector Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on high-quality leading companies in sectors with short policy transmission chains and high marginal improvement slopes, particularly in the service consumption sector [5][6]. - Specific sectors highlighted include: - Dining and Hotels: Expected to benefit significantly from the consumption voucher policy [6]. - E-commerce: Companies like Meituan and Alibaba are recommended due to their robust fundamentals and recovery potential [6]. - Beauty and Personal Care: The sector is seen as resilient with strong growth prospects [6]. - Offline Retail: Emphasis on regional leaders and companies with strong asset values [6].