水泥：长三角第五轮提价幅度超预期，吹响进攻号角

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Invest" rating for the cement industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in this sector [2]. Core Insights - The recent price increase in the Yangtze River Delta region exceeded expectations, signaling a proactive approach from companies to maintain reasonable profits and prevent excessive competition [2]. - The execution of price increases is expected to surpass previous attempts due to improved supply-demand dynamics and a more coordinated industry response [2]. - Government policies are anticipated to stabilize demand, with measures aimed at revitalizing the real estate market and enhancing fiscal support [2]. - The carbon market's introduction is expected to facilitate supply improvements by accelerating the exit of outdated production capacities [2]. - The investment strategy is shifting from a defensive stance to an offensive one, focusing on price increases and potential returns from leading companies in the sector [2]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The cement industry consists of 21 listed companies with a total market capitalization of 261.12 billion yuan and a circulating market value of 121.56 billion yuan [2]. Recent Developments - From September 27, companies in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions raised clinker prices by 100 yuan per ton, with additional price hikes of 30-100 yuan per ton reported in various provinces [2]. - A significant production cut of 35% is planned from September 27 to October 31, with daily reductions exceeding 45,000 tons in Anhui province [2]. Policy Impact - The Politburo meeting on September 26 emphasized the need for counter-cyclical fiscal and monetary policies to support necessary government spending and stabilize the real estate market [2]. - New policies aimed at adjusting mortgage rates and improving loan access for real estate projects are expected to further stimulate housing demand [2]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several companies based on their price-to-book ratios and market positions, including Conch Cement (0.75x PB), Huaxin Cement (1.03x PB), and others, highlighting their competitive advantages and growth potential [2].